German road mobility demand at 106TWh in 2030

  • Spanish Market: Electricity
  • 21/07/21

Germany's road transport sector will need 105.5TWh of electricity in 2030, or about 20pc of the country's current total.

The country's national electric mobility platform NPM expects transport sector power demand to be particularly high, at 69.4TWh, for battery-electric mobility. Power demand in the road transport sector for producing hydrogen and power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels, will be 17.5TWh and 18.5TWh, respectively, in 2030, the NPM forecasts.

The NPM bases its calculations on the assumption that Germany will have 14mn electric vehicles (EV) in 2030, of which 10.8mn would be battery-electric and 3.2mn hybrid battery-electric vehicles. The battery-electric segment also encompasses buses and trucks, including hybrid overhead-powered electric trucks.

The future deployment of hydrogen and PtL in the road transport sector is more difficult to assess, the NPM says. It will depend, mainly, on future technology developments and cost structures. For instance, trucks can use hydrogen either in gaseous form at a pressure of 350 bar or in liquid form — the NPM suggests "soon" reaching a "harmonisation" to avoid stranded investments and the necessity for refitting measures. The demand for hydrogen and PtL will also depend on the extent to which imports of green hydrogen or PtL take off.

Policy makers could provide more clarity on the way forward, based for instance on confidential talks with both manufacturers and the demand side, the NPM suggests.

The NPM also urges policy makers to rapidly boost growth in renewable power capacities to ensure there will be sufficient green power in Germany's system.

For the "coupling" of the energy and the transport sectors to be successful, the NPM said that both the charging infrastructure and the power grids will need to be strongly extended. New, "smart" technologies, such as the bidirectional charging of EVs, will contribute to alleviating grid bottlenecks during peak load times, and to a better integration of renewable energies.

German energy minister Peter Altmaier last week said that a long-awaited draft "law on controllable facilities", which would lay down rules for incentivising flexibility on the demand side, will not be passed, as originally planned, by the outgoing government ahead of federal elections on 26 September.

An earlier draft had been withdrawn in January following an uproar from car association VDA and consumer and renewables associations.

The NPM in its calculations assumes an efficiency rate of 70pc for the electrolysis process for hydrogen, and of 51pc for power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels. It puts charging losses at 10pc.

The report did not focus on the railway, the shipping or the aviation sectors.

The NPM was set up in 2018. It consists of six working groups falling under the remit of either the transport and digital infrastructure ministry, or the economic affairs and energy ministry.

This week's report was drawn up by working group five, which focuses on sector coupling, in particular the link-up of the transport and energy grids. Other working groups address the issues of, for instance, battery cell production (working group four) or sustainable mobility (working group two).


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30/04/24

G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out

G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out

London, 30 April (Argus) — G7 countries today committed to phasing out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 — putting a timeframe on a coal phase-out for the first time. The communique, from a meeting of G7 climate, energy and environment ministers in Turin, northern Italy, represents "an historic agreement" on coal, Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault said. Although most G7 nations have set a deadline for phasing out coal-fired power, the agreement marks a step forward for Japan in particular, which had previously not made the commitment, and is a "milestone moment", senior policy advisor at think-tank E3G Katrine Petersen said. The G7 countries are Italy — this year's host — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member. But the pledge contains a caveat in its reference to "unabated" coal-fired power — suggesting that abatement technologies such as carbon capture and storage could justify its use, while some of the wording around a deadline is less clear. The communique sets a timeframe of "the first half of [the] 2030s or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net-zero pathways". OECD countries should end coal use by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040, in order to align with the global warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set out in the Paris Agreement, according to research institute Climate Analytics. The countries welcomed the outcomes of the UN Cop 28 climate summit , pledging to "accelerate the phase out of unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050". It backed the Cop 28 goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and added support for a global target for energy storage in the power sector of 1.5TW by 2030. The group committed to submit climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — with "the highest possible ambition" from late this year or in early 2025. And it also called on the IEA to "provide recommendations" next year on how to implement a transition away from fossil fuels. The G7 also reiterated its commitment to a "fully or predominantly decarbonised power sector by 2035" — first made in May 2022 and highlighted roles for carbon management, carbon markets, hydrogen and biofuels. Simon Stiell, head of UN climate body the UNFCCC, urged the G7 and G20 countries to lead on climate action, in a recent speech . The group noted in today's outcome that "further actions from all countries, especially major economies, are required". The communique broadly reaffirmed existing positions on climate finance, although any concrete steps are not likely to be taken ahead of Cop 29 in November. The group underlined its pledge to end "inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" by 2025 or earlier, but added a new promise to "promote a common definition" of the term, which is likely to increase countries' accountability. The group will report on its progress towards ending those subsidies next year, it added. Fostering energy security The communique placed a strong focus on the need for "diverse, resilient, and responsible energy technology supply chains, including manufacturing and critical minerals". It noted the important of "guarding against possible weaponisation of economic dependencies on critical minerals and critical raw materials" — many of which are mined and processed outside the G7 group. Energy security held sway on the group's take on natural gas. It reiterated its stance that gas investments "can be appropriate… if implemented in a manner consistent with our climate objectives" and noted that increased LNG deliveries could play a key role. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Chugoku delays Shimane No.2 reactor restart


30/04/24
30/04/24

Japan’s Chugoku delays Shimane No.2 reactor restart

Tokyo, 30 April (Argus) — Japanese utility Chugoku Electric Power has postponed the restart of its 820MW Shimane No.2 nuclear reactor in western Japan's Shimane prefecture from August to December, as reinforcement works are taking longer than expected. The reinforcement works are taking longer, as the utility is also conducting facility inspections to prepare to reactivate the reactor after an extended closure since January 2012 for stricter nuclear safety inspections, said Chugoku on 30 April. Chugoku previously planned to complete the reinforcement works in May , but has now postponed this to October. The utility had aimed to begin normal operations at the reactor in September , but has now delayed it to January 2025. Chugoku had previously modified the restart schedule multiple times . The return of the Shimane No.2 reactor could have helped Chugoku reduce its reliance on thermal generation fuels including oil, LNG and coal, especially during the peak power demand season of summer. Chugoku is currently building the 1,373MW No.3 reactor at Shimane, aiming to complete its safety-enhanced construction sometime during April-September 2025. The company has filed an application with the Nuclear Regulation Authority for a safety screening of the No.3 reactor. Its 460MW Shimane No.1 reactor was scrapped in April 2015. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Gas-fired units win Japan's clean power auction


30/04/24
30/04/24

Gas-fired units win Japan's clean power auction

Osaka, 30 April (Argus) — A planned 10 gas-fired generation units have won Japan's first long-term zero emissions power capacity auction, with the awarded capacity totalling nearly 6GW, or auction volumes sought for the first three years of the programme. Japan launched the clean power auction system from the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, aiming to spur investment in clean power sources by securing funding in advance to drive the country's decarbonisation towards 2050. The auction generally targets clean power sources — such as renewables, nuclear, storage battery, biomass, hydrogen and ammonia. But the scheme also applies to a new power plants burning regasified LNG as an immediate measure to ensure stable power supplies, subject to a gradual switch from gas to cleaner energy sources. The first auction held in January saw 10 new gas-fired units with a combined capacity of 5.76GW secure the funding of ¥176.6bn/yr ($1.12bn), the nationwide transmission system operator Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operator (Occto), which manages the auction, said on 26 April. All winners can receive the money for 20 years through Occto, which collect money from the country's power retailers, although they need to refund 90pc of other revenue. Winners with a new gas-fired project should start commissioning their plants within six years and then begin refurbishment work to introduce clean fuels and technology within 10 years after commissioning. This means all the projects selected in the 2023-24 auction need to start operations by the end of 2030-31. Hokkaido Electric Power previously planned to begin operations of its Ishikariwan-Shinko No.2 gas-fired unit in December 2034 but it has advanced the start-up to 2030-31. Japan has secured a total of 9.77GW net zero capacity through the 2023-24 auction. Contract volumes include 1.3GW of nuclear, 1.1GW of storage batteries, 770MW for ammonia co-firing, 55.3MW hydrogen co-firing, 199MW biomass and 577MW of hydroelectric power projects, along with the 5.76GW of gas-fired projects. By Motoko Hasegawa Japan 2023-24 decarbonisation power capacity auction result Winner Power plant MW* Planned start-up Hokkaido Electric Power Ishikariwan-Shinko No.2 551 FY2030 Tohoku Electric Power Higashi Niigata No.6 616 FY2030 Kansai Electric Power Nanko No.1 592 FY2029 Kansai Electric Power Nanko No.2 592 FY2030 Kansai Electric Power Nanko No.3 592 FY2030 Chugoku Electric Power Yanai new No.2 464 Mar '2030 Tokyo Gas Chiba Sodegaura Power Station 605 FY2029 Osaka Gas Himeji No.3 566 FY2030 Jera Chita No.7 590 FY2029 Jera Chita No.8 590 FY2029 Total gas-fired capacity 5,756.3 Source: Occto, Argus * Sending end capacity Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

APLNG's Jan-Mar output higher: Origin


30/04/24
30/04/24

APLNG's Jan-Mar output higher: Origin

Sydney, 30 April (Argus) — The 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project in Queensland state produced and sold more LNG than the previous quarter and year earlier, Australian independent Origin Energy said in its January-March results. Output rose from the final quarter of 2023 because of the power failure of a vessel docked at APLNG's terminal in Gladstone harbour in late November , which prompted upstream operator Origin to cut flows to the liquefaction plant and APLNG to defer three cargoes to 2024. APLNG exported 134PJ (2.4mn t) of LNG through 34 cargoes for January-March, 8pc up from 124PJ and 32 cargoes the previous quarter and 4pc up on the 129PJ and 33 cargoes shipped in January-March 2023. Total APLNG production for July 2023-March 2024, the first three quarters of Origin's fiscal year to 30 June, was 519PJ, 4pc higher than 498PJ a year earlier, because of effective well and field optimisation activities, fewer maintenance disruptions and the continuing benefit of reducing workover backlog resulting in more wells being on line, Origin said. The terminal will take half a train of capacity off line for 12 days in June , following a two-day maintenance period in January. APLNG's domestic gas sales were 36PJ, steady on the previous quarter but higher by 24pc from the 29PJ sold a year earlier. Gas sales volumes for Origin's energy markets business fell by 5pc to 36PJ from 38PJ in January-March 2023. Origin said it continues to negotiate a deal with the government of New South Wales (NSW) regarding the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired power station's future . The power plant had been due to close in 2025 but insufficient new generation capacity has been completed in NSW for this to occur. "We continue to progress large-scale batteries under development at Eraring and Mortlake power stations and recently announced our first storage offtake agreement from the Supernode battery in Queensland, taking Origin's storage portfolio to around 1GW of capacity once these batteries come on line," chief executive Frank Calabria said on 30 April. By Tom Major APLNG results Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± Production (PJ) 176 167 165 7 5 Sales (PJ) 168 160 158 6 4 Commodity revenue (A$mn) 2,303 2,149 2,583 -11 7 Average realised LNG price ($/mn Btu) 12.17 11.88 14.50 -15 3 Average realised domestic gas price (A$/GJ) 6.90 6.39 6.17 12 8 Source: Origin Energy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Start-ups to help Total keep output stable in 2Q


26/04/24
26/04/24

Start-ups to help Total keep output stable in 2Q

London, 26 April (Argus) — TotalEnergies said it expects its oil and gas production to hold broadly steady in the second quarter as planned maintenance is partially offset by rising output from new projects in Brazil and Denmark. The company expects to average 2.4mn-2.45mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in April-June, compared with 2.46mn boe/d in the previous three months and 2.47mn boe/d in the second quarter of 2023. Production is being supported by the restart of gas output from the redeveloped Tyra hub in Denmark late last month and the start of the 180,000 b/d second development phase of the Mero oil field on the Libra block in Brazil's Santos Basin at the beginning of the year. TotalEnergies first-quarter output was flat compared with the previous three months but 2pc lower than a year earlier as a result of Canadian oil sands divestments. The company reported a robust set of first-quarter results today, broadly in line with analysts' expectations. Profit for the first three months of 2024 was $5.7bn, compared to $5.6bn in the same period last year. Adjusted profit — which takes into account inventory valuation effects and special items — came in at $5.1bn, down by 22pc on the year but slightly ahead of the consensus of analysts' estimates of $5bn. Adjusted operating profit from the firm's Exploration & Production business was down by 4pc year-on-year at $2.55bn, driven in part by lower natural gas prices. The Canadian oil sands asset sales weighed on the segment's production but this was partly compensated by start-ups. As well as Mero 2, the Akpo West oil project in Nigeria started production during the first quarter. TotalEnergies' Integrated LNG segment saw a 41pc year-on-year decline in its adjusted operating profit to $1.22bn in January-March. The company said this reflects lower LNG prices and sales. But while its LNG sales for the quarter fell by 3pc in year-on-year terms, its LNG production was greater by 6pc. TotalEnergies achieved an average $78.9/bl for its liquids sales in the first quarter, an improvement on $73.4/bl a year earlier. But the average price achieved for its gas sales was 43pc lower on the year at $5.11/mn Btu. In the downstream, the company's Refining & Chemicals segment's first-quarter adjusted operating profit was $962mn in January-March, down by 41pc on the year but 52pc higher than the preceding quarter. TotalEnergies attributes the quarter-on-quarter rise to higher refining margins and a rise in refinery throughput . For the second quarter, it expects refinery utilisation rates to be above 85pc, compared with 79pc in the first quarter, boosted by the restart of 219,000 b/d Donges refinery in France. Total's Integrated Power segment continued to improve, registering a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year increased of 16pc and 65pc respectively in its adjusted operating profit to €611mn. Net power production increased 14pc year-on-year to 9.6 TWh, while the company's portfolio of installed power generation capacity grew 54pc to 19.5GW. Total's cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was down by 15pc on a year earlier at $8.2bn in the first quarter. The company has decided to raise its dividend for 2024 by 7pc to €0.79/share and plans a $2bn programme of share buybacks for the second quarter. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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