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Australian bioLPG set to meet half of demand by 2050
Australian bioLPG set to meet half of demand by 2050
Sydney, 5 June (Argus) — Australia's growing bioenergy sector could supply more than half of national LPG demand by 2050 in a best-case bioLPG scenario, energy advisory firm Blunomy said at the Gas Energy Australia forum in Sydney this week. But output is likely to remain constrained by limited production pathways and ongoing policy uncertainty. BioLPG is produced as a co-product of several fuel pathways, including alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) processes used to manufacture sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (RD). Several SAF and RD projects are under development in Australia — some expected to start before 2030 — and early modelling from Blunomy outlines the potential scale of bioLPG output across these pathways. In a best case scenario assuming full capture of bioLPG, production would reach about 24,000 t/yr by 2030, rising to around 257,000 t/yr by 2040 and roughly 300,000 t/yr by 2050, meeting about 52pc of projected LPG demand, a Blunomy representative said. Closing the remaining 48pc gap would require dedicated renewable liquid gas (rLG) pathways, including power-to-liquids technologies designed specifically for LPG output. Expanding Australia's bioenergy mix to include co-processing, biogas-to-LPG, residue-to-dimethyl ether (DME) pathways will also be critical, the firm said. Cost remains another key constraint. A 400,000 t/yr HEFA plant could produce around 20,000 t/yr of biopropane, 5pc of capacity, but refining and handling the gas requires complex and capital intensive distillation, refrigeration and logistics, a representative from Australian bioenergy producer Jet Zero said. As a result, commercial viability will depend on securing offtake agreements and stronger support from both government and industry to scale production and reduce costs, the firm said. Limited policy support for primary fuels — SAF and RD — has left comparatively little focus on bioLPG as a co-product. But some progress has been made this week. Australia's government-backed GreenPower scheme will launch a low carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) certification programme in 2028 , covering SAF, RD, biodiesel and bioLPG. The scheme, first announced in August last year, held stakeholder consultation earlier in 2026 and will develop certification frameworks in 2027. It will be based on a book and claim model with tradeable certificates, while demand-side support and mandates remain under consideration. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Panama Canal sees El Nino slowing transits next year
Panama Canal sees El Nino slowing transits next year
New York, 4 June (Argus) — The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) does not anticipate the expected 2026 El Nino weather phenomenon to materially impact vessel transits at the Panama Canal through the end of the year, but it could create the need for water-saving measures in 2027, according to an update it shared in late May. The same weather pattern was responsible for the 2023/2024 drought that encouraged the ACP to enact draft restrictions from early 2023 that severely reduced transits via the freshwater canal. This ultimately shifted the Panama Canal from its traditional first-come, first-serve basis to its current pre-booked transit slot/supplemental auctions model. But the timeline in 2026 is dissimilar to 2023, a year in which the ACP had already enacted its first draft restrictions by 1 March 2023. These were focused on the largest and newest of the transit locks that lift vessels from the lower sea level into the higher freshwater canal, the Neopanamax locks. Draft restrictions mean vessels need to carry less cargo to sit higher in the water, allowing the ACP to further retain freshwater within the waterway overall. The draft restrictions for these larger vessels steadily increased that year as freshwater levels there steadily declined. But focusing on restricting larger vessels ultimately allowed the ACP to avoid restricting draft for the smaller vessels via the Panamax locks that make up 70pc of all transits via the Panama Canal. That retention of freshwater is important during droughts, because the man-made Panama Canal itself is responsible for providing over 50pc of the country's population with potable water, according to the ACP. The ACP reevaluated its operational capacity at the start of the rainy season, which typically begins in May, lasts through June and replenishes steadily declining water levels during the dry season. "Current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through 31 December 2026", the ACP said. "History indicates that the most pronounced impacts of moderate or strong El Nino events tend to be reflected more clearly in the subsequent year. Accordingly, operational projects for 2027 are already being developed." The ACP highlighted four water-saving measures that had contributed to higher average water levels in the man-made lakes, Gatun and Alhajuela, that feed the freshwater canal enacted in December 2025 alongside a dry season that was "the wettest on record since 1950". These included doubling up on small ships into a single lane when raising them from sea level, use of water-saving basins via the larger Neopanamax locks to effectively recycle some water from exits that would otherwise drain out to the sea, utilizing "interior gates" within the lanes of the locks for vessels smaller than the total size of those lanes to raise efficiency of water usage and the temporary suspension of hydroelectric power generation at Gatun lake, according to the ACP. El Nino? Or 'El Hombre' The severity of weather phenomena like El Nino are famously difficult to predict with accuracy, and the 2026 El Nino weather event, if it does occur, could be on par with the 2023 event or even stronger, according to World Meteorological Association (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. The WMO estimates an 80pc chance of El Nino developing between June-August 2026, with "near or above" a 90pc chance of persisting until at least November. "Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate — and possibly strong," the WMO said. Meanwhile, the NOAA projected in May 2026 that between November, December and January the El Nino had a 37pc chance of hitting "very strong", the highest strength level assessed for the weather pattern. This marked the plurality of all options, with the next highest being "strong" at 30pc probability. The WMO had previously described the 2023-2024 El Nino as peaking at "one of the five strongest on record". A return to this level of severity could upend plans by the ACP of avoiding draft restrictions at the Panama Canal through the remainder of 2026, which would have knock-on effects on shifted global trade patterns. Asian buyers have increasingly relied on Atlantic basin supply, and Panama Canal transits, for energy commodities in the wake of the closure of the strait of Hormuz by Iran. Disrupted Panama Canal transits will create strong upward pressure on freight rates across segments, especially if Mideast Gulf flows remain largely cut-off from the global market when drought again grips Central America. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kyrgyzstan to mine 1.6mn t of thermal coal this year
Kyrgyzstan to mine 1.6mn t of thermal coal this year
London, 4 June (Argus) — Kyrgyzstan plans to mine 1.62mn t of thermal coal this year from the Kara-Keche coal mine, according to the energy ministry, as it reviewed progress on coal production ahead of the 2026-27 autumn-winter season. The Kara-Keche coal mine, located in the central mountainous region of the country and operated by state-owned producer Kyrgyzkomur, aims to supply about 700,000t to thermal power plants, 700,000t to households and 200,000t to social institutions, the ministry said. Kyrgyzstan mined about 1.4mn t of coal last year. The ministry said excavation work was carried out according to the government's pre-approved plan, but heavy rainfall affected the pace of production in May. The ministry also reviewed rail delivery schedules to ensure timely shipments of coal to consumers during the upcoming heating season. Kyrgyzstan, much like its central Asian neighbours, has been expanding its coal sector but mostly with the aim of lifting domestic coal-fired power generation as it often relies on electricity imports every year. The country's grid is mainly powered by coal-fired plants and generates about 14.5 TWh/yr. Kyrgyzstan exported about 214,000t of coal in the first two months of this year, data from Global Trade Tracker show, rising by 12.4pc on the year from 190,000t. Meanwhile, imports more than halved to 7,700t during January-February, from more than 16,000t a year ago. More recently, the central Asian country broke ground on a coal logistic project backed by $430mn investment from China. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US finds first screwworm livestock case since 1976
US finds first screwworm livestock case since 1976
Minneapolis, 4 June (Argus) — The New World screwworm (NWS) has been found in a Texas calf, marking the first US detection of the pest that damages livestock herds in decades, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. The pest was detected in a three-week old calf in La Pryor, Texas, around 100 miles from the Mexican border. NWS larvae burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing "serious damage to livestock and economic losses", the USDA said. NWS-infected animals can be returned to the herd after treatment, but some may be euthanized if treatment is not possible. NWS infections do not lead to culling like bird flu cases. NWS can reduce calf births and cut milk output, which affects both beef and dairy production. The US cattle herd totaled 86.2mn head as of the start of 2026, the lowest level since 1951, USDA data said. Ranchers will need to monitor herds closely for open wounds, where the parasite often enters, adding to the time and labor costs of raising cattle. "USDA invested heavily in the tools needed to eliminate NWS ever since cases started increasing in Central America and Mexico," USDA undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs Dudley Hoskins said. "The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it again." The USDA will implement its NWS response plan, which includes a20km (12.4 mile) radiusquarantine zone around the detection, increased releases of sterile NWS flies, trapping of NWS flies at the Mexican border, and wildlife surveillance. Texas agriculture commissioner Sid Miller asked President Donald Trump to "declare New World screwworm a national agricultural emergency and marshal every available federal resource toward eradication". NWS was last detected in US livestock in 1976, also in Texas, USDA said. It was also found in wildlife and domestic animals in the Florida Keys in 2016 but was eradicated before infecting livestock. Fatality rates for untreated livestock are close to 100pc, but they fall dramatically with early detection and treatment, USDA said. By Alexander Schultz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
