New GHG targets dampen coal outlook in South Korea
South Korea's power sector will have to reduce its net 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 44.4pc from 2018 levels to meet the newly proposed nationally determined contributions (NDC) target, according to a draft revision plan published by the energy ministry on 8 October.
This means net emissions from fossil-fuel generation including coal and gas will be reduced by 119.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) to 149.9mn tCO2e by 2030, from 269.6mn tCO2e in 2018. This is up from a previous target to cut power sector emissions to 192.7mn tCO2e by 2030.
Net emissions are calculated by deducting any measurable carbon reduction activities from certified climate action as per Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement from gross emissions.
To achieve this goal, Seoul plans to reduce the share of coal and LNG in South Korea's power generation mix to 21.8pc and 19.5pc, respectively, while increasing that of renewables to 30.2pc by 2030, according to a draft plan shown during the 2030 NDC forum that was held on 8 October.
By comparison, South Korea's coal, LNG and renewables generation accounted for 35.6pc, 26.4pc, and 6.6pc in 2020, respectively, according to the latest monthly power report published by state-owned utility Kepco.
South Korea's latest electricity supply and demand plan forecasts the country's overall power demand to increase to 612.4TWh in 2030, compared with 552.1TWh in 2020.
Based on this forecast and the government's power mix targets, South Korea's coal-fired power generation will decrease to 133.5TWh in 2030, compared with 196TWh in 2020 and a 228.2TWh pre-pandemic average during 2016-19.
LNG generation is also set to decline to 119.4TWh by 2030 from 146.2TWh in 2020 and the 2016-19 pre-pandemic average of 136TWh, but LNG's share in the power mix was revised upward by 0.5 percentage point from the last target published in the previous electricity plan.
The government plans to expand renewables generation including hydro, solar and wind to 184.9TWh in 2030, which is nearly seven times larger than the 26.8TWh renewables output recorded in 2020.
Despite the ambitious renewables target, the incumbent Moon Jae In administration continues to support a nuclear phase-out policy and the new target for nuclear generation in the power mix was revised lower to 23.9pc, compared with 25pc in the latest electricity plan.
South Korea's nuclear generation is forecast to total 146.4TWh in 2030 according to the new target, compared with 160.2TWh output last year.
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Austrian regulator consults on gas tariff changes
Austrian regulator consults on gas tariff changes
London, 3 May (Argus) — Austrian energy regulator E-Control has revised up its planned increase in gas tariffs from the start of 2025 but adjusted its commodity charge lower. E-Control on Friday published draft amendments to its gas system charges ordinance that would codify planned changes to how it calculates tariffs. It largely retains its revised methodology from April, but has modified its planned outright tariffs and commodity charge. The regulator had in February proposed a shift to a capacity-weighted distance (CWD) model for its reference price methodology, along with a change to a 50:50 entry-exit revenue split from roughly 20:80 at present. The proposed changes would have tripled entry costs from Germany and quadrupled them from Italy from 2025, as well as other significant changes for the distribution system and storages. Austria's system operators supported the changes , but almost all other respondents to the consultation were highly critical , warning that the changes could threaten diversification, lower utilisation and increase tariffs further and harm liquidity. E-Control last month walked back on several of the proposed changes . Most significantly, it revised the entry-exit split to 25:75, limited the increase in exit tariffs to the distribution zone, introduced a 50pc discount on exit fees to storage facilities, and equalised entry tariffs at all points. The switch to a CWD model was retained, however. The most notable modification from the changes proposed in April is a roughly 7pc increase in capacity-based tariffs, as the new amendments use final prices as opposed to indicative prices previously (see table) . The difference "results from the findings over the course of the cost approval procedure during the past few months", E-Control told Argus . In contrast, the commodity charge on gas entering and exiting the Austrian grid has decreased as a result of "lower expected fuel energy costs", E-Control told Argus . It now plans to charge around €0.04/MWh on entry flows and €0.13/MWh on exit flows, compared with €0.12/MWh and €0.13/MWh, respectively, in the original proposal. There is no commodity charge in place for this year. The final change is an update of the multipliers for capacity bookings depending on their duration. The regulator now proposes multipliers of 1.25 for quarterly products, 1.5 for monthly, two for daily, and three for within-day. Interested parties may submit comments to the regulator by 16 May. Final tariffs will then be published in June, and will be applicable from 1 January 2025. By Brendan A'Hearn Austria 2025-28 estimated tariffs €/kWh/h/a Entry/Exit Capacity type* 2025 (final) 2026 (preliminary) 2027 (preliminary) Baumgarten Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Oberkappel Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Uberackern Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Uberackern Entry DZK 1.17 1.23 1.33 Uberackern Exit FZK 4.25 4.59 4.98 Uberackern Exit DZK 3.82 4.13 4.48 Arnoldstein Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Arnoldstein Entry DZK 1.17 1.23 1.33 Arnoldstein Exit FZK 5.96 6.62 7.39 Murfeld Exit FZK 3.73 4.19 4.71 Mosonmagyarovar Exit FZK 2.15 2.49 2.80 Distribution area Exit FZK 1.26 1.45 1.67 Storage Penta West Exit FZK 2.12 2.29 2.49 Storage MAB Exit FZK 1.07 1.19 1.34 *FZK = Firm, freely allocable capacity; DZK = dynamically allocable capacity — E-Control Austria 2025 final tariff vs current €/kWh/h/a Entry/Exit Capacity type* 2025 Current ±% Baumgarten Entry FZK 1.30 0.85 53 Oberkappel Entry FZK 1.30 0.97 34 Uberackern Entry FZK 1.30 0.97 34 Uberackern Entry DZK 1.17 0.88 33 Uberackern Exit FZK 4.25 3.26 30 Uberackern Exit DZK 3.82 2.93 31 Arnoldstein Entry FZK 1.30 0.97 33 Arnoldstein Entry DZK 1.17 0.68 72 Arnoldstein Exit FZK 5.96 4.35 37 Murfeld Exit FZK 3.73 1.90 97 Mosonmagyarovar Exit FZK 2.15 1.23 75 Distribution area Exit FZK 1.26 0.42 200 Storage Penta West Exit FZK 2.12 0.44 383 Storage MAB Exit FZK 1.07 0.44 144 *FZK = firm, freely allocable capacity; DZK = dynamically allocable capacity — E-Control Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US job growth nearly halved in April
US job growth nearly halved in April
Houston, 3 May (Argus) — The US added fewer jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up and average earnings growth fell, signs of gradually weakening labor market conditions. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, fewer than the 238,000 analysts anticipated. That compared with an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March and a downwardly revised 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9pc from 3.8pc. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.7-3.9pc since August 2023, near the five-decade low of 3.4pc. The latest employment report comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its target lending rate unchanged for a sixth time and signaled it would be slower in cutting rates from two-decade highs as the labor market has remained "strong" and inflation, even while easing, is "still too high". US stocks opened more than 1pc higher today after the jobs report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.47pc. Futures markets showed odds of a September rate cut rose by about 10 percentage points to about 70pc after the report. Average hourly earnings grew by 3.9pc over the 12 month period, down from 4.1pc in the period ended in March. Job gains in the 12 months through March averaged 242,000. Gains, including revisions, averaged 276,000 in the prior three-month period. Job gains occurred in health care, social services and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 56,000 jobs, in line with the gains over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing added 22,000, also near the 12-month average. Retail trade added 20,000. Construction added 9,000 following 40,000 in March. Government added 8,000, slowing from an average of 55,000 in the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs after posting 4,000 jobs the prior month. Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility offers Jun-Jul cargoes
Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility offers Jun-Jul cargoes
Singapore, 3 May (Argus) — Indonesia's 7.6mn t/yr BP-operated Tangguh LNG facility is offering four LNG cargoes for June-July loading, through a tender that closes on 6 May. The Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia's west Papua province is offering four cargoes on a fob basis for loading on 17, 22, 27 June, and on 2 July, or two cargoes on a des basis. But the delivery windows are unclear. The firm was last in the market in March , when it offered four cargoes on a fob basis for loading during 28-29 April, 1-2 May, 3-4 May and 17-19 May, or three cargoes on a des basis for delivery over 6-8 May, 8-10 May and 12-14 May. But it is unclear if these cargoes were sold eventually. This offer adds to a growing pool of availability for June and July cargoes, as summer restocking demand among traditional major importing region northeast Asia is poised to be lower this year. This is mainly owing to higher inventories after the winter season and more than sufficient contracted term deliveries, buyers in the region said. This is despite Japan and South Korea forecasting higher summer temperatures this year as compared to the previous year, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration on 23 April. Spot prices have remained relatively rangebound at around high-$9s to low-$10s/mn Btu since the end of March despite weak demand. Spot prices have been tracking some strength in Dutch TTF contract prices, which has reduced importers' incentive to step up spot purchases since imported spot has no obvious price advantage. The front half-month of the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — was last assessed on 3 May at $9.955/mn Btu, lower by about 11¢/mn Btu from a week earlier, but about 71¢/mn Btu higher from a month earlier. Spot demand has been mostly confined to south and southeast Asian importers. Most of southeast Asia is currently experiencing a heatwave, which is likely to continue driving spot LNG demand from firms like Thailand's state-controlled PTT. The firm has issued another tender seeking three deliveries over 1-2, 7-8 and 10-11 July that closed on 3 May. It may have awarded the tender, but further details are unclear, traders said. By Rou Urn Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Corrects movement of grain loadings from a year earlier in final paragraph. Washington, 2 May (Argus) — Workers at the two major Canadian railroads could go on strike as soon as 22 May now that members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) have authorized a strike, potentially causing widespread disruption to shipments of commodities such as crude, coal and grain. A strike could disrupt rail traffic not only in Canada but also in the US and Mexico because trains would not be able to leave, nor could shipments enter into Canada. This labor action could be far more impactful than recent strikes because it would affect Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) at the same time. Union members at Canadian railroads have gone on strike individually in the past, which has left one of the two carriers to continue operating and handle some of their competitor's freight. But TCRC members completed a vote yesterday about whether to initiate a strike action at each carrier. The union represents about 9,300 workers employed at the two railroads. Roughly 98pc of union members that participated voted in favor of a strike beginning as early as 22 May, the union said. The union said talks are at an impasse. "After six months of negotiations with both companies, we are no closer to reaching a settlement than when we first began, TCRC president Paul Boucher said. Boucher warned that "a simultaneous work stoppage at both CN and CPKC would disrupt supply chains on a scale Canada has likely never experienced." He added that the union does not want to provoke a rail crisis and wants to avoid a work stoppage. The union has argued that the railroads' proposals would harm safety practices. It has also sought an improved work-life balance. But CN and CPKC said the union continues to reject their proposals. CPKC "is committed to negotiating in good faith and responding to our employees' desire for higher pay and improved work-life balance, while respecting the best interests of all our railroaders, their families, our customers, and the North American economy." CN said it wants a contract that addresses the work life balance and productivity, benefiting the company and employees. But even when CN "proposed a solution that would not touch duty-rest rules, the union has rejected it," the railroad said. Canadian commodity volume has fallen this year with only rail shipments of chemicals, petroleum and petroleum products, and non-metallic minerals rising, Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show. Volume data includes cars loaded in the US by Canadian carriers. Coal traffic dropped by 11pc during the 17 weeks ended on 27 April compared with a year earlier, AAR data show. Loadings of motor vehicles and parts have fallen by 5.2pc. CN and CPKC grain loadings fell by 4.3pc from a year earlier, while shipment of farm products and food fell by 9.3pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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