New GHG targets dampen coal outlook in South Korea

Market: Coal, Electricity, Natural gas
12/10/21

South Korea's power sector will have to reduce its net 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 44.4pc from 2018 levels to meet the newly proposed nationally determined contributions (NDC) target, according to a draft revision plan published by the energy ministry on 8 October.

This means net emissions from fossil-fuel generation including coal and gas will be reduced by 119.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) to 149.9mn tCO2e by 2030, from 269.6mn tCO2e in 2018. This is up from a previous target to cut power sector emissions to 192.7mn tCO2e by 2030.

Net emissions are calculated by deducting any measurable carbon reduction activities from certified climate action as per Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement from gross emissions.

To achieve this goal, Seoul plans to reduce the share of coal and LNG in South Korea's power generation mix to 21.8pc and 19.5pc, respectively, while increasing that of renewables to 30.2pc by 2030, according to a draft plan shown during the 2030 NDC forum that was held on 8 October.

By comparison, South Korea's coal, LNG and renewables generation accounted for 35.6pc, 26.4pc, and 6.6pc in 2020, respectively, according to the latest monthly power report published by state-owned utility Kepco.

South Korea's latest electricity supply and demand plan forecasts the country's overall power demand to increase to 612.4TWh in 2030, compared with 552.1TWh in 2020.

Based on this forecast and the government's power mix targets, South Korea's coal-fired power generation will decrease to 133.5TWh in 2030, compared with 196TWh in 2020 and a 228.2TWh pre-pandemic average during 2016-19.

LNG generation is also set to decline to 119.4TWh by 2030 from 146.2TWh in 2020 and the 2016-19 pre-pandemic average of 136TWh, but LNG's share in the power mix was revised upward by 0.5 percentage point from the last target published in the previous electricity plan.

The government plans to expand renewables generation including hydro, solar and wind to 184.9TWh in 2030, which is nearly seven times larger than the 26.8TWh renewables output recorded in 2020.

Despite the ambitious renewables target, the incumbent Moon Jae In administration continues to support a nuclear phase-out policy and the new target for nuclear generation in the power mix was revised lower to 23.9pc, compared with 25pc in the latest electricity plan.

South Korea's nuclear generation is forecast to total 146.4TWh in 2030 according to the new target, compared with 160.2TWh output last year.

By Evelyn Lee

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Denmark's wind tender flop linked to H2 network doubts

06/12/24

News

06/12/24

Denmark's wind tender flop linked to H2 network doubts

London, 6 December (Argus) — Denmark's failure to attract bids in an offshore wind tender was partly caused by the country's lack of firm commitment to a hydrogen pipeline network, according to Danish and European hydrogen associations. For Denmark's hydrogen industry the failed tender is raising concerns that Copenhagen might resort to state aid for offshore wind, which could jeopardise renewable hydrogen production that is compliant with EU rules. Denmark unsuccessfully offered three areas totalling 3GW in a first part of the auction that ended on 5 December, and will offer another 3GW in a second part ending in April 2025. The "very disappointing" result will now be investigated by the Danish Energy Agency to discover why market participants failed to bid, energy minister Lars Aagaard said. Wind project developers may have worried that low electricity prices in an increasingly saturated power market and inadequate export routes — either via power cables or as hydrogen via pipeline — would deny a return on investments, industry participants said. Ample offshore wind potential could allow Denmark to generate power far in excess of its own needs. But in order to capitalise on this the country would need to find a way of getting the energy to demand markets. Turning offshore wind into renewable hydrogen for export was "a very attractive solution" for developers, Hydrogen Europe chief policy officer Daniel Fraile said, but would rely on timely construction of a network "all the way from the coast to Germany's hydrogen-hungry industry." Denmark's hydrogen network was recently pushed back to 2031-32 from an initial 2028, partly because of an impasse over funding that provoked anger from industry. The government has said it will only help fund the hydrogen transport network if there are sufficient capacity bookings guaranteeing its use. But this approach increases risks for developers, according to Fraile. "You need to handle the risk of winning the offshore tender, finding a hydrogen offtaker in Germany and commit to inject a large amount of hydrogen over several years. Then deliver the project on time and on cost," he said. "This is a hell of an undertaking." Industry association Hydrogen Denmark's chief executive Tejs Laustsen Jensen agreed, calling the failed tender "a gigantic setback". "The uncertainty about the hydrogen infrastructure has simply made the investment too uncertain for offshore wind developers," he said. "Now the task for politicians is to untie this Gordian knot." "Of course, the tender must now be re-run, but if the state does not guarantee in that process the establishment of hydrogen infrastructure, we risk ending up in the same place again," he said. The booking requirement as a prerequisite for funding the network "must be completely removed," Jensen said. Green energy association Green Power Denmark said "there is still considerable uncertainty about the feasibility of selling electricity in the form of hydrogen," but pointed to other factors that may have led to the tender failing to attract bids. Wind turbines and raw materials have become more expensive because of inflation while interest rates have risen sharply, reducing the viability of such projects, the group's chief executive Kristian Jensen said. Unlike some other countries, Denmark does not intend to fund grid connections or provide other subsidies, he said. Unwanted help Hydrogen Denmark's Jensen warned against the government resorting to subsidies to help get offshore wind farms built. "State support for offshore wind would be the death knell" for the hydrogen sector and would "de facto kill all possibilities for a green hydrogen adventure in Denmark," he said. Granting state support for offshore wind farms would mean these assets would not comply with the additionality requirement of the EU's definition for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), which are effectively renewable hydrogen and derivatives. EU rules state renewable assets are only considered 'additional' if they have "not received support in the form of operating aid or investment aid," although financial support for grid connections is exempt from this. "If state aid is provided for the offshore wind that is to be used to produce the hydrogen, we will lose the RFNBO stamp, and the Danish hydrogen cannot be used to meet the green EU ambitions for, among other things, industry and transport, and the business case is thus destroyed," Jensen said. By Aidan Lea and Stefan Krumpelmann Geographical divisions of Denmark's H2 network plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

06/12/24

News

06/12/24

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

Houston, 6 December (Argus) — A US House of Representatives committee has approved a bipartisan bill that authorizes improvements to navigation channels by the Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and maintenance and dredging of river and port infrastructure projects. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) after several months of political wrangling to integrate earlier versions of the legislation approved by the House and Senate . The bill will head to the full House next week, said committee chairman Sam Graves (R-Missouri). This would be the sixth consecutive bipartisan WRDA bill since 2014 if passed by congress. WRDA is a biennial bill that authorizes the Corps to continue working on projects to improve waterways, including port updates, flood protection and supply chain management. WRDA will also "reduce cumbersome red tape", which will allow for quicker project turnarounds, Graves said. The bill authorizes processes to streamline work, he said. The bill also adjusts the primary cost-sharing mechanism for funding for lock and dam construction and major rehabilitation projects. The US Treasury Department's general fund will pay 75pc of costs, up from 65pc, with the rest coming from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is funded by a barge diesel fuel tax. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

UK fuel mix disclosure ‘no longer fit for purpose’

05/12/24

News

05/12/24

UK fuel mix disclosure ‘no longer fit for purpose’

London, 5 December (Argus) — UK company Smartest Energy presented a paper at today's RECS-led UK Rego Day seminar in London, calling for urgent reform of the electricity certification scheme to support decarbonisation goals. Smartest Energy is calling for a shift to full production and consumption disclosure, with generators receiving a certificate of origin for every MWh they send into the grid — regardless of the fuel source. This would allow renewable and non-renewable generation to be tracked and enable consumers to make informed decisions, the paper argues. Another proposal is to gradually move away from the current methodology for fuel mix disclosure, which is based on annual matching — this system effectively means consumption within a specific timeframe can be matched to output in any other period during the disclosure year. The paper suggests an initial shift to quarterly matching, followed by monthly and daily matching. Closer temporal alignment would "encourage investment in grid development and deeper decarbonisation", according to Smartest Energy. It would also give a clearer picture of seasonal and daily energy demand and the physical reality of electricity flows. The paper suggests that more transparency is particularly important now that European guarantees of origin (GOOs) are no longer recognised in the UK, and while electricity continues to flow from the continent through interconnectors. Argus assessments for non-biomass Regos generated in the current compliance period 23 (CP23) — April 2024-March 2025 — averaged £4.19/MWh in November, while CP23 biomass was assessed at an average of £3.88/MWh. In Europe, full disclosure has already been implemented in Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Dutch GOOs tend to trade at a premium to the rest of the continent, with consumer preference for local certificates driving demand. France moved to monthly certificate matching at the beginning of 2021. By Giulio Bajona Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Shell, Equinor to create biggest UK producer: Update

05/12/24

News

05/12/24

Shell, Equinor to create biggest UK producer: Update

adds details throughout London, 5 December (Argus) — Shell and Norway's state-controlled Equinor plan to combine their UK upstream businesses into a joint venture to create the UK North Sea's largest oil and gas producer. The new business will produce more than 140,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) from 2025, the companies said. Bank analysts reckon growth projects will enable production to eventually increase beyond 200,000 boe/d. It marks the latest deal in a wave of consolidation in the the UK sector of the North Sea, including Italian firm Eni's deal earlier this year to merge its UK upstream assets with those of independent producer Ithaca Energy and UK company Harbour Energy's tie-up with Germany's Wintershall Dea last year . Shell and Equinor are following a similar 50:50 ownership structure and self-financing model that BP and Italy's Eni employed in Angola when they combined their offshore assets there to create Azule Energy in 2022 . The Shell-Equinor joint venture's assets will include Equinor's stakes in the Mariner and Buzzard fields, alongside Shell's interests in Shearwater, Penguins, Gannet, Nelson, Pierce, Jackdaw, Victory, Clair and Schiehallion projects. A consequence of the deal is that Shell, having walked away from Ithaca's contentious Cambo oil project in the UK's west of Shetlands area last year, will now be exposed to Equinor's equally controversial 300mn bl Rosebank project , which is currently under judicial review . If Rosebank goes ahead, it is likely to be the largest growth driver of the new company with around 70,000 boe/d of production from 2027. Although Shell's assets will contribute a greater share of the joint venture's production to begin with, Equinor's assets have greater growth potential. Through the new entity, Shell will also benefit from Equinor UK's £6bn ($7.6bn) of tax losses. "Equinor's higher UK tax loss position and growth potential offsets the higher current production in Shell's UK portfolio, hence the 50:50 split in ownership of the new company," Barclays analysts wrote in a note. The deal does not include Equinor's assets that straddle the UK's maritime border with Norway — Utgard, Barnacle and Statfjord. Equinor will also retain ownership of its UK offshore wind portfolio, as well as other low-carbon and gas storage assets. Shell will retain ownership of its interests in Scotland's Fife NGL plant and St Fergus Gas Terminal, as well as floating wind projects under development. It will also remain the technical developer of the Acorn carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in Scotland. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more