Cop 26 profile: South Korea steps up emissions pledges

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 22/10/21

Coal would be phased out of power generation, and nuclear sharply cut, under 2050 carbon neutrality scenarios submitted this month, writes Evelyn Lee

South Korea is answering the international call to step up emissions cuts to meet its 2050 net zero target, but an ambitious plan to expand renewables capacity and end coal use, while heavily reducing the share of nuclear in the power mix over the same period, raises questions about its feasibility.

Seoul this month proposed a 40pc cut to its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with 2018 levels, up from a previous target of 26pc, and from a goal of "at least 35pc" promised in late August, when the national assembly enacted the country's 2050 carbon neutrality framework. The 2030 proposal is part of South Korea's updated nationally determined contribution (NDC), the ministry of trade, industry and energy says. The Moon Jae-In government is due on 27 October to approve one of two scenarios to achieve 2050 net zero emissions, both entailing a complete coal phase-out by 2050. And it expects to officially declare its 2030 NDC target at the UN Cop 26 climate summit next month.

Under both scenarios, overall power demand is expected to more than double by 2050 from 552TWh in 2020. And the share of nuclear in the mix is expected to fall sharply from 160TWh in 2020, with the country planning to phase out nuclear power over the coming decades. Seoul plans to reduce power-sector emissions to 20.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2050 under the second scenario, which would be down by 92.3pc from 269.6mn t of CO2e in 2018.

South Korea achieved rapid industrialisation through carbon-intensive industries such as manufacturing, electronics and cars, shipbuilding, and steelmaking. It was the world's eighth-largest exporter of goods and services in 2019 and had the tenth-highest GDP in the world in 2020, World Bank data show. But with these energy-intensive industries fuelled largely by coal, South Korea's emissions in 2018 were around 12.2 t/capita, the World Bank says, compared with EU and OECD averages of 6.4 t/capita and 8.8 t/capita, respectively.

The gap between South Korea and the rest of the world prompted the government to introduce the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme in January 2015, although this did little to change market dynamics, largely because of the 97-100pc free allowances handed out during the first two phases. Given its failure to induce lower coal burn, Seoul asked state-owned utility Kepco to voluntarily reduce its coal-fired power output in April-November to meet overall emissions targets, while Kepco units have been obliged since 2019 to cut their coal use in December-March to tackle air pollution.

Cap in hand

The government is now considering an annual cap on coal-fired generation from 2022 that aligns with the country's NDC targets leading up to 2050, and a new power auction system to enable utilities to bid for generation allowances to make carbon costs more meaningful. The new cap-and-trade system would support South Korea to adopt more-stringent NDC targets.

But Moon's commitment to the nuclear phase-out risks making it challenging to achieve fossil fuel reduction targets. The latest electricity plan shows Seoul's intention to reduce nuclear capacity to 20.4GW in 2030 and then 19.4GW in 2034, from 23.3GW in 2021.

The government has also taken steps to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), offering incentives for consumers, and is supporting industrial-level schemes to encourage battery manufacturing. Domestic car manufacturers Kia and Hyundai have invested heavily in EVs and have co-operated to develop a shared electric platform for their vehicles to help scale production. EVs now account for around 16pc of car exports from South Korea, up by around 30pc on the year.

South Korean emissions

South Korean power generation

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

03/05/24

Brazil hydroelectric dam bursts under record rains

Brazil hydroelectric dam bursts under record rains

Sao Paulo, 3 May (Argus) — Brazilian power generation company Companhia Energetica Rio das Antas (Ceran) found a partial rupture in its 100MW 14 de Julho hydroelectric plant following record precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul state. Flooding from the record rains has left 37 dead and forced more than 23,000 people out of their homes, causing widespread damage across the state, including washed out bridges and roads across several cities. Ceron reported that the dam of the hydroelectric plant on the Antas River suffered a rupture under the heavy rains and the company implemented an emergency evacuation plan on 1 May. Ceron's 130MW Monte Claro and 130MW Castro Alves plants are under intense monitoring, the company said in a statement. Rio Grande do Sul state governor Eduardo Leite declared a state of emergency and the federal government promised to release funding for emergency disaster relief. Leite said the flooding will likely go down as the worst environmental disaster in the state's history. Brazil's southernmost state along the border with Argentina has been punished by record precipitation over the past year owing to the effects of the strong El Nino weather phenomenon, according to Rio Grande do Sul-based weather forecaster MetSul Meteorologia. Brazilian power company CPFL Energia controls Ceran with a 65pc equity stake. Energy company CEEE-GT, which is owned by steel manufacturer CSN, owns another 30pc, and Norway's Statkraft owns the remaining 5pc. The state had declared a state of emergency as recently as September 2023 because of unusually heavy rains that resulted in the death of more than 30 people. Weather forecasters expect El Nino conditions to abate in the coming months over the eastern Pacific. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chevron’s oily DJ basin buy boosts gas output


03/05/24
03/05/24

Chevron’s oily DJ basin buy boosts gas output

New York, 3 May (Argus) — Chevron's US natural gas production has surged in recent quarters due to its crude-focused acquisition of Denver-based PDC Energy last August, increasing the oil major's exposure to the US gas market months after that market entered an extended price slump. Chevron's US gas production in the first quarter was 2.7 Bcf/d (76mn m3/d), up by 53pc from the year-earlier quarter and the highest since at least 2021, according to company production data. Chevron's total US output rose by 35pc year-over-year to 1.57 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), while US crude output increased by 21pc to 779,000 b/d. The acreage Chevron picked up last year in the DJ basin of northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming has higher gas-oil ratios than the rest of its US portfolio. Chevron mostly focuses US production in the crude-rich Permian basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Since Chevron closed its acquisition of PDC on 7 August, US gas prices have mostly languished in loss-making territory. Prompt-month Nymex gas settlements at the US benchmark Henry Hub from 7 August 2023 to 2 May 2024 averaged $2.46/mmBtu, down from an average of $4.999/mmBtu in the year-earlier period. In a May 2023 conference call over Chevron's acquisition of PDC, chief executive Mike Wirth expressed optimism for the long-run outlook for natural gas, despite the more immediately dim outlook. "There's going to be stronger global demand for gas growth than there will be for oil over the next decade and beyond as the world looks to decarbonize," Wirth said. Despite lower US gas prices, Chevron has captured $600mn in cost savings from the PDC acquisition between capital and operational expenditures, the company told Argus . Crude prices have also been more resilient. Chevron's profit in the first quarter was $5.5bn, down from $6.6bn in the year-earlier quarter, partly due to lower gas prices. US gas prices have been lower this year as unseasonably warm winter weather and resilient production have created an oversupplied US gas market. A government report Thursday showed US gas inventories up by 35pc from the five-year average. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UN carbon market enshrines appeal, grievance processes


03/05/24
03/05/24

UN carbon market enshrines appeal, grievance processes

Berlin, 3 May (Argus) — The much-debated procedure for appeal and grievance processes for people negatively affected by carbon mitigation activities was finally passed this week by the regulator of the future UN carbon market. The supervisory body of the Paris agreement crediting mechanism, under Article 6.4 of the Paris climate agreement, called the appeal and grievance procedure a "crucial step towards developing a new international carbon market that sets the benchmark for high integrity carbon credits". The mechanism is expected to be passed at the UN climate summit Cop 29 in November in Azerbaijan. The appeal and grievance procedure sets the fee for filing an appeal at $30,000, compared with the $5,000 fee suggested in earlier iterations, which was seen by some supervisory body members at this week's meeting in Bonn, Germany, as "too low for project developers, but too high for vulnerable groups". The fee will be waived for appellants who are appealing for vulnerable groups, such as local communities and indigenous peoples. But the supervisory body failed to pass the mechanism's long-awaited sustainable development tool, instead launching a call for input. Members had criticised the lack of a validation and verification process for the tool, and its unclear delimitations, given that some of its objectives will be addressed in future rules on carbon removals activities or the carbon reduction methodologies under the mechanism. Making the tool mandatory was demanded by both countries and non-governmental organisations at recent Cop summits, with the lack of a grievance process and sustainable development tool part of the reason why the pricing mechanism was not finalised at Cop 28 in Dubai last year. The sustainable development tool of the Kyoto Protocol's clean development mechanism (CDM), which the new mechanism broadly aims to replace, was never made mandatory. A total of 1,796 carbon mitigation activities have now requested to transition from the CDM to the new mechanism, of which more than 300 have not yet provided full details and could miss the 31 August deadline, the UN's climate arm said in Bonn. The supervisory body called for an extension of the transition period to 4 November. Work on the new mechanism's registry is also advancing, with the supervisory body agreeing to launch a consultation on the "legal, technical and financial implications of providing functionality for the treatment of financial security interests in Article 6.4 emissions reductions within the mechanism registry". By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US job growth nearly halved in April: Update


03/05/24
03/05/24

US job growth nearly halved in April: Update

Adds services PMI in first, fifth paragraphs, factory PMI reference in sixth paragraph. Houston, 3 May (Argus) — The US added fewer jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up and average earnings growth slowed, signs of gradually weakening labor market conditions. A separate survey showed the services sector contracted last month. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, fewer than the 238,000 analysts anticipated. That compared with an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March and a downwardly revised 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9pc from 3.8pc. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.7-3.9pc since August 2023, near the five-decade low of 3.4pc. The latest employment report comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its target lending rate unchanged for a sixth time and signaled it would be slower in cutting rates from two-decade highs as the labor market has remained "strong" and inflation, even while easing, is "still too high". US stocks opened more than 1pc higher today after the jobs report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.47pc. Futures markets showed odds of a September rate cut rose by about 10 percentage points to about 70pc after the report. Services weakness Another report today showed the biggest segment of the economy contracted last month. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in April from 51.4 in March, ending 15 months of expansion. The services PMI employment index fell to 45.9, the fourth contraction in five months, in today's report. Readings below 50 signal contraction. On 1 May, ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April, after one month of growth following 16 months of contraction. In today's employment report from the Labor Department, average hourly earnings grew by 3.9pc over the 12 month period, down from 4.1pc in the period ended in March. Job gains in the 12 months through March averaged 242,000. Gains, including revisions, averaged 276,000 in the prior three-month period. Job gains occurred in health care, social services and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 56,000 jobs, in line with the gains over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing added 22,000, also near the 12-month average. Retail trade added 20,000. Construction added 9,000 following 40,000 in March. Government added 8,000, slowing from an average of 55,000 in the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs after posting 4,000 jobs the prior month. Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Kazakhstan outlines Opec+ compensation plan


03/05/24
03/05/24

Kazakhstan outlines Opec+ compensation plan

London, 3 May (Argus) — Opec+ member Kazakhstan has submitted a plan to Opec detailing how it intends to compensate for producing above its crude production target in the first four months of the year. Kazakhstan and Iraq — which has also submitted a compensation plan — are the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers and a key reason why the group exceeded its overall production in the first three months of the year . Kazakhstan's energy ministry said it produced above its target by 129,000 b/d in January, 128,000 b/d in February, and 131,000 b/d in March, according to secondary source estimates. Opec secondary sources, of which Argus is one, have yet to formally submit their production estimates for April, but Kazakhstan said it is factoring preliminarily overproduction of 100,000 b/d for April. The ministry said it kept oil production high because of high winter demand for natural gas — much of its gas production is associated and is produced alongside its oil. Kazakhstan said it would start its compensation plan in May with an initial cut of 18,000 b/d below its official target of 1.468mn b/d. It would then stick to its target in June and July before implementing a cut of 131,000 b/d in August, none in September, 299,000 b/d in October, 40,000 b/d in November and zero in December. The cuts have been designed to coincide with scheduled maintenance at the country's key oil fields of Kashagan and Tengiz, the ministry said. Kazakhstan would have to reduce its output by 149,000 b/d in May compared with its March production of 1.599mn b/d to meet its pledge, according to Argus calculations. The compensation plan is set to be adjusted once a final figure for April is available. The plan would be further adjusted to accommodate any change in the Opec+ alliance's output policy — for which a meeting is scheduled to take place on 1 June in Vienna. Opec has been increasing pressure on members exceeding their targets. It called last month on countries that have overproduced to submit detailed compensation plans by the end of April. The Opec+ alliance has implemented a series of cuts — voluntary or collective — worth a combined 5.4mn b/d since October 2022 in a self-described bid to "support the stability and balance of the oil market". The latest round of "voluntary" output reductions by several members came into force in January and is due to run until the end of June. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more