French wheat shipments to hit record in July
French wheat exports in July are on track to hit their highest for the month, as poor domestic harvest in key importers of the Middle East and north Africa paired with competitive prices of crop globally have boosted trade interest.
French wheat shipments to non-EU destinations so far this month totalled 511,200t, according to preliminary line-up data. This would be up from monthly volumes exported globally in 2020 and 2021, when 461,000t and 227,000t of crop were shipped, respectively.
And with an additional 118,300t scheduled to be shipped to non-EU countries until the start of next week, wheat exports could rise to 629,500t and may reach 800,000t by the end of the month, according to market estimates. This would put monthly volumes above the previous record from 2010-11, when 775,000t of crop were exported.
Exports this month are largely supported by Morocco, with a combined 324,400t scheduled to have been shipped to the destination earlier this month. This is considerably above volumes exported to Morocco in July in previous years, with monthly shipments peaking at just 37,400t in 2016. This is as the Moroccan government traditionally lifts import duties on wheat in the first months of the marketing season to protect domestic harvest of crop. But a poor domestic output — estimated at a 15-year low of 2.25mn t, according to the US Department of Agriculture — prompted the government not to introduce higher import taxes this year.
A 30,000t cargo was scheduled to be shipped for Israel on 18 July, which marks the first receipt of French wheat since February. Israel primarily imports wheat from the Black Sea region but has started to explore alternative origins at a time of disruptions to Ukrainian shipments following the start of the Russian invasion.
French wheat has gained competitiveness internationally in the past weeks, extending sharper losses than in the wider Black Sea region and turning to a discount to most key origins on a fob basis, except for US soft red wheat. But France's freight advantage over the US in north Africa means French wheat is the most competitively priced crop for delivery into the region.
France is anticipated to export 10.75mn t of wheat globally in 2022-23, under the estimates of Argus' agricultural advisory arm, Agritel, up from about 8.8mn t shipped last year. In comparison, France's agricultural and sea products agency FranceAgriMer projects the nation's non-EU wheat exports to reach 10.3mn t this season.
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Australia’s live cattle exports slip back in April
Australia’s live cattle exports slip back in April
Sydney, 16 May (Argus) — Australian cattle exports fell in April from a month earlier as demand from Indonesia waned, Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) data show. Live cattle exports fell by 20pc to 60,521 head in April, as Indonesian demand dropped by 16pc but still made up 86pc of the monthly total. Indonesian imports rose sharply in March , likely in preparation for the end of Islamic fasting month Ramadan celebrations in early April. Total exports may have also been affected by the continued wet season in northern Australia, supporting domestic prices and motivating producers to retain stock. The fall was partially offset by increased exports to Vietnam that rose by 37pc in April from March and comprised a 14pc share of shipments. January-April exports were 20pc higher than the same period of 2023. Australia as at 3 May has used 16pc of the total quota of 672,669 head of live male cattle under the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, according to DAFF. By Edward Dunlop Australia live cattle exports (head) Apr '24 Mar '24 Apr '23 Apr '22 Apr '21 Jan-Apr '24 Jan-Apr '23 Jan-Apr '22 Jan-Apr '21 Indonesia 51,941 62,041 26,926 35,936 39,659 129,381 97,170 102,860 138,384 Vietnam 8,290 6,041 9,580 4,688 3,713 32,037 20,721 7,730 44,367 China 0 3,500 7,160 1,609 7,061 32,306 27,003 41,439 34,600 Malaysia 290 0 0 59 1,893 1,490 1,749 879 6,667 Israel 0 501 9,252 1,596 0 2,728 19,798 13,041 11,909 Total 60,521 75,704 55,611 45,288 59,396 209,592 175,299 171,482 250,100 Source: DAFF Totals include all destinations not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil ups 2023-24 crop forecast to 295.4mn t
Brazil ups 2023-24 crop forecast to 295.4mn t
Sao Paulo, 14 May (Argus) — Brazil's national supply company Conab increased its outlook for the 2023-24 grain and oilseed crops for the first time since the initial outlook in November, amid upward revisions in expected area for the season. Conab now expects 2023-24 output at 295.4mn metric tonnes (t), up from 294.1mn t a month ago. That is 7.6pc — or 24.4mn t — lower than the previous cycle's record of 319.8mn t because of the negative effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon over main producing states. The cycle is projected to yield 3,734 kg/hectare (ha), 8.3pc below the 4,072 kg/ha in 2022-23. That also compares with the 3,744 kg/ha forecast a month ago. Estimated sowed area expanded 590,100ha to 79.1mn ha this month, which is 578,000ha down from the prior season's acreage. Soybean output rises Brazil's 2023-24 soybean crop is now set to reach 147.7mn t, up by 1.2mn t from the 146.5mn t a month ago. That is a 4.5pc drop from the 2022-23 crop's record of 154.6mn t, but is still the second largest crop in the country's history. The monthly output increase follows a higher sowed area projection of 45.7mn ha, compared with 45.2mn ha in April. That is also a 3.8pc rise on the year. The expansion more than offset the downward revision in the outlook of Rio Grande do Sul state, which was recently hit by an unprecedented flood . But Conab said that further cuts may come in the following months, when farmers begin to count losses. Conab predicts average yields to total 3,229 kg/ha, down from 3,239 kg/ha estimated a month prior and 3,507 kg/ha in the prior cycle. Corn crop also up Conab expects Brazil to produce over 111.6mn t of corn in 2023-24, including the country's first, second and third crops. That is above the previous estimate of nearly 111mn t, but down by 15.4pc — or 20.3mn t — from 2022-23 record volumes. The forecast for the grain's planted area is at 20.6mn ha, approximately 236,100ha above the prior month's estimate. This represents a 7.4pc drop from the 22.3mn ha sowed in the prior cycle. Projected yields are at 5,414 kg/ha, down from March's estimate of 5,444 kg/ha and 8.6pc below the previous crop. Winter corn — also known as the second corn crop —accounted for most of the increase. The production forecast rose to 86.2mn t from 85.6mn t, below the 2022-23 crop's 102.4mn t record. Expected yields fell to 5,388 kg/ha from 5,427 kg/ha a month ago. That is also 9.5pc below the prior cycle's yields. Meanwhile, expected acreage was revised up from the prior month by 214,000ha to almost 16mn ha. The 2022-23 second corn crop was sowed in 17.2mn ha. The summer corn cycle — also known as the first crop — is set to reach 23.4mn t, up by 133,800t from a month prior. The estimate for acreage rose by around 22,100ha to approximately 4mn ha, while yields remain projected at 5,879 kg/ha. Brazil's 2022-23 first corn crop produced 27.4mn t, yielding 6,160 kg/ha in a sowed area of over 4.4mn ha. Wheat down, cotton lint up Conab now expects Brazil's 2024 wheat production to total 9.1mn t, down by 647,300t from a month earlier. The decrease follows a 223,000ha drop in the sowed area projection to 3.1mn ha. That is 11pc below the prior season. Estimated yields remained roughly stable in May at 2,942 kg/ha, up by 26pc from a year earlier. Brazil's 2023 wheat output totaled approximately 8.1mn t, with heavy rainfall volumes in the south dropping yields to 2,331 kg/ha and acreage reaching almost 3.5mn ha. The forecast for 2023-24 cotton lint production rose by 43,500t to 3.6mn t, which is 470,200t — or 14.8pc — above the prior season's output. That reflects favorable weather in Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais states. The yearly increase is driven by a higher expected acreage of 1.9mn ha, almost 17pc above the 2022-23 season and roughly stable from a month ago. Yields rose to 1,876 kg/ha from 1,860 kg/ha in April, which is 1.6pc below the prior season. Soybean exports slightly up Conab expects 2023-24 soybean exports to total 92.5mn t, up by 200,000ha from last month's projection driven by a higher expected production this month. That compares with almost 101.9mn t of soybeans exported in the 2022-23 season. Corn exports remains set to reach 31mn t, flat from April but a drop from the 54.6mn t shipped in the prior cycle. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ukraine soybeans feel destination markets squeeze
Ukraine soybeans feel destination markets squeeze
Kyiv, 14 May (Argus) — Ukraine's soybean exporters could find it difficult to maintain the pace of shipments to their traditional markets in the last four months of the 2023-24 season, as abundant global soybean supplies pressure prices. Argus has forecast that Ukraine will export 3mn t of soybeans in the 2023-24 marketing year (September-August), with the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) projection 100,000t higher. Ukraine's cumulative soybean exports had reached 2.54mn t at the end of April, customs data show. This means that about 500,000t of soybeans remains to be exported in May-August to hit the full-year projections. For comparison, Ukraine exported nearly 574,000t in the same four months of last year. But abundant global soybean supply this season has pressured prices, including in some traditional destinations for Ukrainian-origin soybeans such as Egypt and Turkey. Many buyers are choosing US and Brazilian soybeans over Ukrainian, as their products are being offered at a discount of $10-15/t on a cif Egypt basis, a trader told Argus . As of 14 May, Ukrainian sellers were offering soybeans at $515/t cif Egypt, compared with bids of $505/t cif Egypt. Egypt and Turkey Ukraine exported about 95,400t of soybeans to Egypt in March, while April shipments were 30,500t. The USDA projects Egypt soybean imports at 2.8mn t this season, with about 1.55mn t already imported by the end of April, Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show. The US and Brazil supplied more than 800,000t of that, while Ukraine delivered about 700,000t in September-April. Ukraine exported 51,000t of soybeans to Turkey in March, but only 4,300t in April, according to customs data. For the whole 2023-24 season, the USDA expects Turkey to import 3.1mn t of soybeans. In September-March, the country imported 1.47mn t, with volumes from Ukraine significantly down in March from the previous month, and arrivals from Brazil and the US offsetting this drop, according to GTT. In total, Ukraine supplied about 580,000t of soybeans to Turkey in September-March, GTT figures show. Ukrainian soybeans are likely to continue to be less competitive on the Egyptian and Turkish markets until the end of this season, because of large supplies from the US and Brazil. Higher local prices Ukrainian soybean prices remain firm, with buyers ready to pay $430-435/t cpt Reni/Izmail for the oilseed in the past seven days. Such prices — once transshipment costs and freight rates are added — make Ukrainian soybeans less competitive on a cif Egypt and cif Turkey basis. As a result, exporters have to look to other markets, such as Germany and the Netherlands. But deliveries by train and truck through Ukraine's western borders remain logistically complicated, leaving sea shipments the only viable option for traders. That said, with only about 500,000t of soybeans left for Ukraine to export to reach the 2023-24 projections, the available selling opportunities may be enough to hit the target. Even with decreased Ukrainian shipments to Egypt and Turkey, Ukraine April's exports of the product — at 134,000t — were in line with the five-year average of about 133,000t. By Kristin Yavorska Ukraine monthly raeseed exports 000't Ukraine cummulative soybean exports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rains persist in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
Rains persist in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
Sao Paulo, 13 May (Argus) — Downpours that began flooding Brazil's heavily agricultural Rio Grande do Sul in late April persisted over the weekend, continuing to wreak havoc in the state. Rains reached an accumulated 123mm (4.8 inches) on 10-12 May in state capital Porto Alegre, according to Brazil's national meteorological institute Inmet. Some areas experienced around 80mm of rain on 12 May alone, according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Showers in Porto Alegre have reached an accumulated 502mm in May already, according to Brazilian meteorological firm Climatempo. The monthly average is of 111mm. River and lake levels also kept rising. The Guaiba lake, in the state's capital, reached 4.9m (16ft) on Monday morning — up from 4.8m on 10 May, according to the state government. It is considered in a flood stage once it reaches 3m. Most rivers in the state, such as the Gravatai, Taquari and Uruguai, are also above flood levels. A bridge over the Cai River, which links Nova Petropolis and Caxias do Sul cities, broke partially on Sunday. As a result, a stretch of the BR-116 highway is closed, according to the national department of transport infrastructure. The river's levels are 6m above normal. Brazil's national center for natural disaster monitoring and alerts still considers the risk of "new hydrological occurrences" to be "very high" in Rio Grande do Sul and neighboring Santa Catarina state. The extreme weather has left 147 dead and 127 missing, according to the civil defense. Over 538,000 people are displaced. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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