17/12/25
LNG supply growth outstrips carrier orderbook to 2030
With the acceleration of scrapping of LNG carriers, the number of newbuilds is
insufficient to keep pace with supply growth, writes Cerys Edwards London, 17
December (Argus) — The number of newbuild LNG carriers scheduled to deliver by
2030 will not be enough to transport the planned growth in global liquefaction
capacity, particularly if the retirement of older vessels accelerates compared
with recent years. But the balance in the freight market will depend heavily on
the configuration of LNG trade flows over the rest of the decade. Some 234
newbuild LNG carriers are scheduled to be delivered over 2026-2030, according to
data from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), with deliveries in 2026
set to be the quickest year on record. Typically, around 1½ ships are needed to
transport 1mn t of new liquefaction supply to Europe, and three ships for the
equivalent journey to Asia, Capital Clean Energy Carriers chief executive Jerry
Kalogiratos said at the World LNG Summit in Istanbul in December. Applying this
basic assumption, the 234 newbuild carriers could transport some 158mn t/yr of
new liquefaction capacity were the supply to deliver solely to Europe. But the
newbuilds provide scope for just 78mn t/yr of new loading demand should the
vessels deliver to Asia, which Kalogiratos considers the more probable scenario,
given that buyers in southeast Asia are likely to consume more LNG in the
forthcoming years. "There definitely looks like there is going to be a
shortage", he says. Both scenarios indicate that the present LNG carrier
orderbook is not large enough to accommodate the 229mn t/yr of new export
capacity scheduled to come on line by 2030, judging by the projects that have
already reached a final investment decision (FID). And the LNG carrier market
could tighten further if more projects reach FID. Even the roughly 80mn t/yr of
additional production capacity that was sanctioned this year are "not yet
covered," according to David Colson, vice president at French engineering firm
GTT, which supplies nearly all of the membrane containment systems used in LNG
vessel tanks. The golden age of steam coming to an end? The LNG freight market
balance over the coming years will also largely depend on the number of older
vessels being scrapped, which rose sharply this year. A record 14 steam turbines
have been sold for scrap so far in 2025, up from eight in the whole of 2024 and
an average of five over 2020-24. And the pace of scrapping is likely to
accelerate over the next few years, as vessels roll off long-term charter
agreements, Kalogiratos says. Steam turbine carriers are "obsolete" as their
high boil-off costs and smaller cargo capacity sizes do not provide the
"flexibility that the current LNG trading environment requires", he added. There
are 29 operational LNG carriers that are 25 years old or older, including the
137,000m³ Puteri Nilam and same-sized Al Jasra which have in recent months idled
in the strait of Malacca and Bay of Brunei, according to shiptracking data from
Kpler. The oldest LNG carrier still in operation is the 128,000m³ LNG Maleo ,
which was built in 1989 and is controlled by Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina.
As well as these vessels, there are a further 47 built in 2000-2005, including
11 idling in either Malacca or Brunei Bay. These are likely to be retired by
2030, given the average age of the vessels sold for scrap in 2025 was 26,
Norwegian shipping firm Flex LNG said in its third-quarter earnings call last
month. Were all 76 vessels built before 2005 scrapped by 2030, it would limit
the fleet growth to a total of just 158 LNG carriers. Under the scenario
outlined above this number of vessels could transport 105mn t/yr of supply to
Europe and just 53mn t/yr to Asia — both far below the planned capacity
buildout. The LNG carrier orderbook could still grow in the coming years
however, given slots for late 2028 delivery are still available at some South
Korean shipyards. Send comments and request more information at
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