Tanker freight rates to see rapid growth: Bimco

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Freight, Oil products
  • 01/03/23

Freight rates for crude and products will see rapid gains in 2023 and 2024 — similar to 2008, when rates often exceeded $100,000/d — with demand growth outpacing tanker supply, according to shipping association Bimco.

Demand for crude tankers will grow faster than supply by 2.5-3.5pc in both 2023 and 2024 and for product tankers this will be 4.5-5.5pc in 2023 and 2-3pc in 2024, said Bimco. In addition to this, the EU embargoes on Russian crude and products will mean Europe has to import from further-flung destinations, resulting in a 3-4pc increase in average sailing distances — adding significantly to tonne-mile demand and pushing spot freight rates higher.

The tightening of the demand-supply balance will lead to an increase in freight rates, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices, it said.

"The market will experience a period of sustained market strength that has not been seen since the 2008 financial crisis," said Bimco.

This jump will come on the back of the EIA's prediction of higher liquid fuels consumption in 2023 and 2024, along with the IMF's forecast of global economic growth over the same period — because of an improved outlook for the Chinese economies.

The EIA predicts China will account for 38pc of the growth in oil demand between 2022 and 2024, and India for 18pc. The Middle East will account for 15pc of growth.

Supply of new tankers will have a limited effect on demand growth, though, as Bimco forecasts crude tanker fleet growth of just 0.9pc in 2023 and 1.5pc in 2024. The product tanker fleet will grow by even less — just 0.4pc in 2023 and 1.1pc in 2024.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

22/04/24

Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts

Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts

Sao Paulo, 22 April (Argus) — Brazilian beef tallow exports totaled 73,930 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, a three-fold increase from the same three-month period in 2023 on rising demand. Almost 93pc of outflows between January and March were shipped to the US, according to data from Brazil's trade ministry. Long-term contracts explain the rising flow of exports, even though spot market arbitrage was closed throughout the first quarter (see chart) . The price of tallow in the Paranagua and Santos ports was $960/t fob on 19 April, keeping the arbitrage closed to US Gulf coast buyers, where the reference product was at $901/t on a delivered inland basis. Brazilian tallow is also negotiated at a premium against soybean oil, which closed at $882/t fob Paranagua on 19 April. This scenario has been observed since the 1 December 2023 start of Argus ' tallow export price assessment. Historically, vegetable oil in Brazil was traded at a discount to tallow, but strong demand has boosted the price of animal fat. Some biodiesel plants have been purchasing used cooking oil (UCO) or pork fat as an alternative. In 2023, there were doubts about whether the outflow of tallow from Brazil would be constant. Market participants now believe that the 2024 start of operations at new renewable diesel refineries in the US should sustain exports. Local suppliers that have already signed supply guarantee contracts — some up to three years — with American buyers are also considering export opportunities with Asia, including a new renewable diesel plant in Singapore that could receive Brazilian cargoes. Expansion projects are propelling US demand, including work that would bring capacity at Marathon Petroleum's Martinez Renewables plants in California to 2.35mn m³/y (40,750 b/d)and the Phillips 66 Rodeo unit in northern Californiato 3mn m³/y. These and other new projects will increase annual US demand for tallow by 5mn t. Maintenance on the horizon Maintenance at US refineries has Brazilian sellers bracing for a short-term drop in prices. Between May and June the Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) unit in Port Arthur, Texas, will shut down for maintenance, a stoppage that could impact demand for Brazilian inputs. Market participants have already observed a slight increase in domestic tallow supply, a change they attribute to maintenance at DGD. The advance of the soybean crop in Argentina is also expected to increase the supply of feedstocks to North American plants, as some refineries are returning to soybean oil after a hiatus of several years. The soybean oil quote on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is an important reference for the price of tallow. By Alexandre Melo Renewable feedstocks in Brazil on fob basis R/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro


22/04/24
22/04/24

Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro

Bogota, 22 April (Argus) — Colombians took the streets of major cities and towns across the nation on Sunday to protest mainly against health, pension and labor changes, but potential power outages are also creating discontent. Authorities estimated that about 250,000 Colombians marched in widespread protests, sparked by changes in healthcare. Congress in April had rejected President Gustavo Petro's proposals in the sector, and the government the next day seized the two largest private-sector health insurers. Protesting healthcare workers say the government did this to implement changes through a back channel. "Regulatory noise and risk are likely to remain high amid announcements, proposals, and measures [that do not require congressional approval], aimed at changing the game's rules in strategic sectors," brokerage Credicorp Capital said. Colombians also protested being on the verge of electricity rationing like that in neighboring Ecuador as hydroelectric reservoirs remain at record-low levels. Several unions and other associations have long warned the Petro administration to take measures to offset the effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon. Electricity distributors last year called for allowing bills for energy purchased on the spot market to be deferred and for loosening price index rules, among other proposals. The national business council sent at least three letters to the president on the issue. At least nine separate letters calling for preparation to prevent blackouts were sent to the president and ministers. Several actions were only recently implemented . "There are no risk of electricity rationing in Colombia," former energy minister Irene Velez said in 2023. "We do not understand why some people are interested in generating panic." Government weather forecasts also overestimated rainfall expected for March, leading hydroelectric plans to use more water in the reservoirs than they otherwise would have, said director of the thermoelectric generation association (Andeg) Alejandro Castaneda. Reservoir levels stood at 29.5pc today, rising thanks to rains since 19 April, up from 28.75pc on 18 April. Electricity rationing is set to begin when reservoirs drop below 27pc, according to grid operator XM. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Baltimore opens third temporary shipping channel


22/04/24
22/04/24

Baltimore opens third temporary shipping channel

New York, 22 April (Argus) — A third temporary shipping channel has opened at the Port of Baltimore to allow more vessel traffic around the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge. Located on the northeast side of the main channel, the new passage has a controlling depth of 20-ft, a 300-ft horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 135-ft. When combined with two other temporary channels opened earlier this month the port should be able to handle "... approximately 15 percent of pre-collapse commercial activity," said David O'Connell, the federal on-scene coordinator. The main shipping channel of the Port of Baltimore — a key conduit for US vehicle imports and coal exports — is expected to be reopened by the end of May, the Maryland Port Administration said earlier this month. The bridge collapsed into the water late last month when the 116,851dwt container ship Dali lost power and crashed into one of its support columns. Salvage teams have been working ever since to remove debris from the water and containers from the ship in order to clear the main channel. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oman’s PDO to hit 700,000 b/d crude before 2030 target


22/04/24
22/04/24

Oman’s PDO to hit 700,000 b/d crude before 2030 target

Muscat, 22 April (Argus) — Oman's state-controlled PDO has several new greenfield projects that it is looking to bring on stream that should see it reach, and blow past, its target for 700,000 b/d of crude before the end of the decade. Speaking at the Oman Petroleum and Energy show in Muscat today, PDO's managing director Steve Phimister said the company has a portfolio of new "sizeable" projects in the pipeline and expects to reach 700,000 b/d by the "middle of the decade". "But what we would not be going to see in the next couple of years are multibillion dollar projects like Yibal Khuff or Rabab Harweel," he added. PDO's Yibal Khuff — one of Oman's most technically complex upstream projects — came online in 2021 and production was 20,000 b/d in 2022, according to the latest available data for production. Rabab Harweel , Oman's largest enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project, came onstream in 2018 and is producing more than 70,000 b/d. PDO adds around 10,000-15,000 b/d to its production on an average every year, according to Phimister. "Our strategy is to go above 700,000 b/d," he said. "We could, in principle, go quite way above 700,000 b/d of black oil, depending on oil price, shareholder's desire on where they want to invest". But he said PDO wants to grow in "a sustainable way" while "balancing out emission targets." The company in 2021 pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions from its operations by 2050 . The company is likely to hold onto its previous capital expenditure plans, although this is subject to final approval, Phimister said. "We have invested roughly the same amount of capital in the last few years and continue to do so," he said, adding that PDO now has a dual challenge of growing old business while reducing carbon emissions. PDO's planned capital expenditure for last year was $5bn and operating expenditure was at $2bn, in line with 2022 levels. The Omani state owns 60pc of PDO, Shell holds 34pc and TotalEnergies has 4pc. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German products demand up on supply concerns


22/04/24
22/04/24

German products demand up on supply concerns

Hamburg, 22 April (Argus) — German demand for heating oil and fuels rose sharply in the past week, with consumer concerns that conflict in the Middle East could restrict product availability were coupled with falling domestic product prices. Spot trade of heating oil, diesel and E5 gasoline submitted to Argus reached their highest weekly averages since the start of the year. The last time this amount of heating oil was traded was in December last year, and for gasoline and diesel it was at the beginning of October. Gasoline demand surged particularly in the Emsland and South regions, and middle distillates were primarily traded in Rhine-Main and Southwest. The missile attack by Iran on Israel on 13 April and Israel's drone attack on Iran on 19 April have heightened concerns of further escalation. An open conflict between Iran and Israel could affect supply of crude and gasoil from the Middle East by threatening major shipping routes of the Suez Canal, the strait of Hormuz and the eastern Mediterranean. These concerns led some German consumers to fill their tanks. Concurrently, product prices have fallen across Germany, further stimulating demand. Refineries in Karlsruhe and Neustadt-Vohburg have drawn buyers with fuel oil and gasoline prices below the German average. Heating oil at Miro's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe traded at more than €2/100l below the national average, while gasoline at Bayernoil's 216,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg traded at a discount of almost €6/100l to the same average. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more