São Paulo renova planos para transição energética
O estado de São Paulo revelou planos para acelerar a transição para energia renovável e reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa, com a meta de zerá-las até 2050.
O estado renovou seu Plano Estadual de Energia 2050 (PEE) para apoiar 21 projetos em andamento no valor de R$16,8 bilhões, incluindo investimentos da empresa sucroalcooleira e distribuidora de combustíveis Raízen, da montadora chinesa Great Wall Motors (GMW) e da japonesa Toyota.
Quatro projetos estão ligados ao setor sucroenergético. A Alcoeste Bioenergia vai expandir a produção de etanol em sua usina no interior de São Paulo, em Fernandópolis, enquanto a Raízen está investindo em duas usinas de etanol de segunda geração (2G), em Andradina e Morro Agudo.
A Tereos Guarani, subsidiária brasileira de moagem de cana-de-açúcar da produtora francesa de açúcar Tereos France, construirá uma usina de biogás e aumentará a capacidade instalada de sua usina de Cruz Alta, movida a bagaço de cana, em Olímpia.
"Temos um grande potencial do estado no etanol, que é a ponte para termos veículos movidos a partir de hidrogênio", disse o governador do estado, Tarcísio Freitas.
A indústria automotiva global aposta nos carros movidos a hidrogênio, entre outras frentes, para eletrificar e descarbonizar o transporte.
Nesse contexto, a GWM abrirá uma fábrica em Iracemápolis, no ano que vem, para fabricar apenas veículos elétricos — como carros elétricos a bateria, híbridos e movidos a hidrogênio. A Toyota também está pesquisando a aplicação do etanol para produzir hidrogênio em suas unidades de Porto Feliz e Sorocaba. Ambos os projetos foram incluídos no Plano Estadual de Energia 2050.
"Com uma dose de incentivo, vamos ter usinas de etanol produzindo também o hidrogênio verde", afirmou Freitas.
Geração de energia
Outros dois projetos também estão ligados à geração de energia. A Sun Mobi construirá uma usina solar fotovoltaica, em Taubaté, e a Emae, controlada pelo estado de São Paulo, modernizará seu complexo elétrico Henry Borden, em Cubatão.
A aposta do governo estadual na economia limpa envolve, também, o incentivo a iniciativas para aumentar a produção de biometano, biomassa, etanol de segunda geração e outras alternativas verdes para abastecer as cadeias de energia, gás, transporte e indústria.
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Clean H2 to hit 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, goals in doubt
Clean H2 to hit 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, goals in doubt
London, 17 September (Argus) — Global supply of clean hydrogen could reach 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, up from less than 1mn t/yr currently online, according to industry body the Hydrogen Council. This is well short of global government targets and suggests supply will remain far below estimates of what is needed to combat climate change. Announced projects could provide 48mn t/yr of capacity by 2030, of which around 75pc would be renewable hydrogen and the remainder 'low-carbon' output from natural gas with carbon capture and storage, the association said in its Hydrogen Insights 2024 report published today. But only 4.6mn t/yr of this has moved to a final investment decision (FID) or beyond and "natural attrition" — prioritising the most viable projects — means many of the announced ventures will not materialise as planned, the Hydrogen Council said. A "probability adjustment", based on completion rates for other renewables projects, suggests only around 30pc of the announced capacity will be operational by 2030, the group predicts, although the 12mn-18mn t/yr estimate does not factor in potential future announcements. If these forecasts materialise, governments around the world are bound to spectacularly miss production targets set for 2030. The EU and the US are targeting 10mn t/yr of domestic production each, India 5mn t/yr, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE have goals for at least 6.5mn t/yr between them. Scores of other countries have ambitious goals. The forecast would also fall far short of climate change imperatives. Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA estimated last year that 69mn t/yr of clean hydrogen would be needed by 2030 to put the world on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. The Hydrogen Council puts this at 75mn t/yr. The Hydrogen Council has pointed to global macroeconomic headwinds as a key reason for slow progress, along with uncertain regulation within the sector. A slew of recent project cancellations have counteracted the optimism arising from an increased number of FIDs . Growing up Still, the industry has shown some encouraging signs of maturity, even if it is not on track to meet the heady targets set by many governments and companies, the Hydrogen Council said. Committed funds for hydrogen projects past FID, being built, or in operation was $75bn across 434 projects as of May 2024, compared with $10bn across 102 projects in 2020, it said. The $75bn is nearly double the $39bn in this category as of October 2023. There was only a 15pc increase in the combined value of projects in the 'announced' category, to $303bn from $259bn, over the same period, signalling the pace towards realisation of projects is picking up. The near double growth in 'committed' funds was driven 60pc by investments in end-use, 40pc in infrastructure, and only 15pc by investments in hydrogen production. Investment decisions for end-use applications grew several times over between October 2023 and May 2024. This may satisfy market participants' repeated calls for a government focus on stimulating demand recently. But planned investments in end-use and infrastructure projects are lagging far behind what will be needed in a net-zero scenario, the Hydrogen Council said. Announced investments in end-use projects is $145bn below what is required by 2030, and midstream infrastructure is trailing by $190bn. But announced investments in production projects this year for the first time surpassed what will be necessary, with a $15bn surplus — although much of this could fall by the wayside. "With the current announced investments and the growth observed since last publication, investments are behind the required net-zero pathways with net-zero targets unlikely to be met," the Hydrogen Council said. By Aidan Lea Assumptions for probability adjustments % Project stage Assumed success rate In operation 100 Under construction 100 Post-FID 99 Front end engineering design 40-80 Feasibility study 5-40 Announced 0-20 - Hydrogen Council Global announced electrolyser capacity through 2030 GW As of Announced capacity Dec-20 55 Dec-21 115 May-22 175 Jan-23 230 Oct-23 305 May-24 375 - Hydrogen Council * based on the Hydrogen Council's probability adjustment, globally installed electrolysis capacity could reach 90GW by 2030 Investments until 2030 by project stage $bn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Von der Leyen puts forward EU commissioner candidates
Von der Leyen puts forward EU commissioner candidates
Brussels, 17 September (Argus) — European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen today presented candidates for commissioner posts, confirming names put forward for portfolios including climate, energy, agriculture and trade. Von der Leyen — who was confirmed by European Parliament as Commission president on 18 July — has committed to doubling down on climate and energy policy. Her 2024-29 mandate stipulates greenhouse gas emissions cuts of at least 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990. Her commissioners, if appointed, will implement those policies. She is nominating Teresa Ribera to oversee competition policy but also "clean, just and competitive transition" that would include energy, climate, environment and other Green Deal files. Ribera is Spain's deputy prime minister and responsible for the country's ecological transition. Von der Leyen has proposed the current EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra for the portfolio of climate, net-zero and clean growth. Hoekstra, who replaced previous Green Deal commissioner Frans Timmermans , will also be responsible for taxation. Other nominees include former Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen, up for energy and housing commissioner. Former Swedish minister for EU affairs Jessika Roswall is proposed for a portfolio including environment and circular economy, and Luxembourgish Christophe Hansen, a former member of EU parliament, is proposed as agriculture and food commissioner. Von der Leyen now needs to ensure that candidate-commissioners are approved by parliamentary committees and then by plenary. Hearings will also focus on candidates' abilities to implement policies. "Parliamentary scrutiny will not cut corners," European Parliament president Roberta Metsola said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Competitive SAF prices, policy needed to scale market
Competitive SAF prices, policy needed to scale market
Monterey, 16 September (Argus) — Efforts to scale the US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market will hinge on the industry's ability to narrow the price premium to conventional jet fuel, an impossible task without expanded policy and a coordinated industry focus, stakeholders said today. "The final frontier of scale is cost," SGP Bioenergy chief executive officer Randy Delbert Letang said at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Summit. Airlines are ultimately concerned with the economic feasibility of low carbon fuels versus conventional, Letang said, adding that where finer details on the road to the lowest-cost and -carbon SAF are concerned, they don't necessarily want to "know or see how the sausage is made". Fellow panelists deemed advancement in feedstock technology, risk mitigation for investors and lenders and a coordinated industry effort as essential in scaling SAF in the US and abroad via the lowering of SAF prices. Incentive programs such as Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs across the west coast, and the potential for expansion into other states, are one way to narrow the gap. But those present opposed restrictions on incentives between renewable feedstocks, such as those recently proposed for diesel alternatives in California, and agreed the market remains in too early a stage for complicating incentives. To narrow the scope of the aviation industry's carbon-reduction discussion to specific feedstocks and their respective carbon intensity scores could "let perfect be the enemy of good," said Eric Holle, Phillips 66's renewable fuels commercial optimization manager. As SAF projects are alternately proposed and shuttered , panelists emphasized a need for the industry to mitigate but ultimately accept the risks inherent to an adolescent and quickly evolving market. Ensuring the industry's narrative is consistent will be key in the next few years to convincing investors and lenders to accept that risk, Letang said. Reducing the carbon footprint of conventional petroleum fuels via blending biofuels, as well as expanding the applicability of those fuels — to the maritime and aviation industries, as example — is the best focus of industry efforts in the near term, he added. By Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US SAF stakeholders call for coordinated support
US SAF stakeholders call for coordinated support
Monterey, 16 September (Argus) — Government needs to provide stronger and more harmonized regulation to encourage sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in the US, according to a number of industry stakeholders. The high cost of SAF compared with conventional jet fuel requires federal and state regulatory policy to help minimize risks for SAF plant investors, said Bruce Fleming, chief financial officers of SAF producer Montana Renewables at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Summit today. But while there is broad support, a "tapestry of different regulations, with important details materially at odds" is creating an unstable regulatory environment, he said. Producers have a roughly 10-year recovery period on investments, according to Fleming, so investors require long-term certainty of their return through offtake agreements and support from lawmakers, but this has thus far been inconsistent . On a federal level, there's a "donut hole" in the proposed switch in incentives from the current blenders' tax credit to the new 45Z clean fuel production tax credit which is due to be implemented from 1 January 2025, said Fleming. But detailed guidelines for the new credit have not yet been released, and it is only guaranteed until 2028, rather than for the 10 or more years that would smooth investors' risk profile. Meanwhile the Environmental Protection Agency has signaled it will miss its statutory deadline to [finalize 2026 biofuel blending targets , creating further confusion, Fleming said. Mismatch internationally, locally US policies are also somewhat at odds with other regions, notably the EU which is mandating 2pc SAF in the jet fuel mix from next year, which could draw US volumes away from the domestic pool. On a local level, different US states are going at different speeds with regards to their low carbon fuel standard programs and the feedstocks they will accept, injecting further complexity in the calculations for SAF producers and airlines. Illinois, for example, is implementing a $1.50/USG credit but is capping the volume of soybean-derived SAF and making it only available to airlines operating in the state rather than producers — at odds with similar schemes in California, Washington and Oregon. Tax incentives also need tweaking to encourage flexibility in manufacturers to produce SAF rather than renewable diesel, said Sean Newsum, Airlines for America Managing Director of Environmental Affairs. Renewable diesel consumption has grown so quickly in markets such as California because the mix of RINs and LCFS credits essentially meant customers are paying no premium for the product over fossil fuel diesel, Newsum said. Now even stronger incentives are required to lower the final cost airlines are paying for SAF to close the price gap over jet fuel, and push producers towards renewable aviation rather than road fuels. The uncertain regulatory environment means the US is due to fall far short of its SAF Grand Challenge target to supply 3bn USG/yr in the domestic market by 2030, according to speakers at the conference and Argus analysis, rising up to 35bn USG/yr by 2050. There is 3.5bn USG/yr of SAF production capacity planned by 2030, according to Argus data, but only around 90mn USG/yr is currently operational and 535mn USG/yr of the planned projects are categorized as "firm" — meaning there is a relatively high degree of confidence they will move forward. The rest are either seen as only "provisional" or "very provisional" given the difficulty in answering the risk questions posed. By Amandeep Parmar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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