Role for CO2 removals in EU ETS post-2030: Analysts

Spanish Market: Electricity, Emissions
13/10/23

Carbon-removal technology could offer a way of balancing increasingly tight supply in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) next decade, analysts said at a conference in London this week, warning that support for scaling up the industry should not be left too late.

EU power sector gas demand will stand at the same level in 2040 as in 2022, Trevor Sikorski, head of natural gas and emissions at consultancy Energy Aspects, told delegates at the Carbon Forward conference.

This is because power demand will increase significantly as "almost all" road transport, home heating and industrial heating is electrified, either directly or through the use of green hydrogen, which has an "enormous" electricity footprint.

And while renewable capacity will continue to increase, solar power will mainly be generated in summer, with no way of shifting the electricity to winter to meet heating demand.

With no carbon allowance supply due to come into the EU ETS once the scheme's emissions cap falls to zero by around 2040, an "awful lot" of carbon removals will be needed, Sikorski said.

This could drive the EU ETS price to above €450/t CO2e by 2040, as the marginal cost of removals would set the carbon price, Sikorski warned. There is a lack of low-cost renewable heat in Europe to run heat-intensive direct air capture (DAC) plants, with the exception of geothermal energy in Iceland, and using green hydrogen for the purpose would require even more power.

But cross-financing carbon-removal technology by putting in place a legislative framework to incentivise development could reduce this upward pressure on the EU ETS price, which at such levels might not be politically acceptable, said Marcus Ferdinand, chief analytics officer at carbon analytics firm Veyt.

Without a change to the system "relatively quickly" to allow use of carbon removals, there will be a gap not only in emissions cuts, but also in liquidity, Ferdinand warned, leading to a "very difficult situation".

The EU is developing a general framework that aims to ensure quantification of carbon removal for industrial activities — such as DAC and storage and bioenergy-based CCS — follow EU rules for quantification of greenhouse gas emission avoidance. A draft published last November did not set out a link to the EU ETS.

By Victoria Hatherick

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19/12/25

Australia needs electricity carbon policy: Commission

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The Australian government should introduce a national market-based policy to drive electricity sector decarbonisation, potentially modelled on the existing safeguard mechanism, economic research and advisory body the Productivity Commission (PC) said in a final report today. The PC had previously recommended applying the safeguard mechanism to electricity generators at the facility level, but it may be better to consider this issue separately, it noted in a final inquiry report into "investing in cheaper, cleaner energy and the net zero transformation". "Multiple policy options will need to be considered for the electricity sector, and even if a baseline-and-credit scheme is preferred, it may be better to keep this separate from the safeguard mechanism, at least at first, to avoid risks of uncertainty and disruption in the carbon credit markets that support that policy," the PC said. Currently there is little relationship between the emissions intensity of Australia's remaining coal-fired power plants and their announced retirement dates, according to the commission. Recognising the value of emissions reduction would pave the way for more emissions-intensive plants to retire earlier, it argued. Electricity excluded from safeguard mechanism Under the safeguard mechanism, facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across several sectors earn safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) if they report scope 1 emissions below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if their emissions are above the threshold. The electricity sector, Australia's largest emitter, is effectively excluded from the mechanism because the emissions reduction policy for the segment has been focused on renewable electricity targets. The mechanism applies a single sectoral baseline of 198mn t CO2e/yr across all electricity generators connected to Australia's main electricity grids, which is way above recent data — emissions from the electricity generation sector reached a combined 138.9mn t CO2e in the 2023-24 compliance year. A decision on whether to expand the mechanism to electricity may be considered in the upcoming safeguard mechanism review in 2026-27 . NEM review But any new policy will need to complement reforms arising from the National Electricity Market (NEM) review, which also received a final report this week . The decision will also need to be consistent with several policies and agreements already in place to support new investment or manage the exit of coal plants across Australia, the PC noted. While the existing Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the proposed Electricity Services Entry Mechanism (ESEM) scheme mainly target renewable output or capacity, a least-cost emissions-reduction policy would help companies deciding when to retire coal and gas plants, according to the commission. This will be even more important if the Australian government prioritises firming auctions, which may support new gas-fired plants. Emissions policy uncertainty has been a major barrier to investment in gas-powered generation, the PC said. "Firming auctions will be more effective if project proponents know in advance how their emissions will be treated," it noted. Apart from a policy to drive electricity sector decarbonisation, the PC's final report urges the government to expand the safeguard mechanism , phase out fuel tax credits for on-road heavy vehicle operators, and reduce barriers to adopting low-emissions technology for heavy vehicles. And it also calls the government to phase out the fringe benefits tax exemption for electric vehicles (EVs), a recommendation that was criticised by industry body EV Council . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

18/12/25

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office

18/12/25

2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office

London, 18 December (Argus) — The forecast for 2026 suggests that it is likely to be one of the four warmest years on record, in terms of global average temperature, UK weather agency the Met Office said today. The Met Office's central estimate for 2026 puts the global average temperature at 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. The range the agency forecasts is between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the pre-industrial average. The central estimate suggests that 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year that the average temperature will be at least 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. "Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C", the Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife said. Scaife leads the team behind the global forecast for 2026. The global average temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record , several international weather and science agencies agreed. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. The Paris accord's temperature parameters work on a longer timeframe, of at least two decades, so a temperature breach across a year or a few years does not render the accord broken. The World Meteorological Organisation in March estimated that the current level of global warming is at 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels. And climate science "may be underestimating the magnitude of human-induced global warming", given a recent surge in global temperatures, the UN Environment Programme said earlier this month. This year is "on course" to tie with 2023 as the second hottest year on record, EU earth-monitoring programme Copernicus said earlier this month . The global average temperature anomaly for January-November this year is 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.48°C above the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900, Copernicus data show. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals

18/12/25

Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals

London, 18 December (Argus) — Denmark has set aside 4bn Danish kroner ($630mn) annually for 15 years from 2034 in order to reach its climate goals, climate minister Lars Aagaard said today. The government has set the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2035 — a cut of 82pc from 1990 levels, which Aagaard announced at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November. Denmark aims to reach net zero emissions by 2045, and negative emissions beyond that. The government has since the end of November negotiated with all parties in parliament on the new 2035 climate goal, it said today. The target is set, although there was not "common ground to be able to make a broad agreement", Aagaard said today. "The door is still open for co-operation," he said. "I also think that there is a possibility of raising the target at a later date if the conditions change." The government has prioritised the "necessary financing" to hit climate goals, Aagaard said. "Everyday life must not become unnecessarily expensive for Danes and Danish companies," he said. "We are in a different place than we were in 2019, when the last target was set." Denmark's 2035 goal is one of the most ambitious in the world. It is similar to fellow northwest European oil and gas producer the UK , which has set a goal of 81pc GHG cuts over 1990-2035. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

N Zealand proposes ETS governance penalties

18/12/25

N Zealand proposes ETS governance penalties

London, 18 December (Argus) — New Zealand's environment ministry is eyeing fines for failure to comply with new reporting requirements under the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), briefing papers published by the ministry this week show. Under the penalty regime, failure to report price and volume information to the government or market monitoring entities would result in fines of NZ$8,000 ($4,621) on the first instance, doubling to NZ$16,000 in the case of a second breach. Each additional breach would carry a NZ$24,000 fine. Those that fail to store trading information data would face first-time fines of NZ$12,000, which would double to NZ$24,000 in case of repetition. Additional infractions would be penalised NZ$32,000 per breach. The ministry's proposal, which was put to the climate change minister in October, follows the decision to implement stronger NZ ETS platform reporting requirements , agreed by the country's cabinet earlier this year. Additional proposals for NZ emissions units (NZUs) transacted on the secondary market would require trading platforms to keep records of trading information for seven years, and submit daily reports to the ministry with the price and volume of NZUs transacted on that day. Under the proposals, confirmed instances of NZU price manipulation could face criminal charges, potentially resulting in imprisonment not exceeding five years, or a fine lower than NZ$2.5mn. Misleading conduct without confirmed evidence would face fines proportional to the gain made or loss avoided. But they would not exceed NZ$1mn if an individual were facing the fine, or NZ$5mn in any other case. In addition to fines, the ministry would also publish the details of the entity committing the infraction and the status of the penalty, the briefing paper said. The penalty regime will be incorporated into a bill amending the country's Climate Change Response Act, alongside other market governance changes. The introduction of the bill to parliament was initially scheduled for late 2025 but has now been postponed, with a first reading expected in early 2026. By Kiara Campagne Nieva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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