Record US crude exports to Europe power tanker rally
A torrent of crude flowing from the US Gulf coast to Europe in October helped midsize tanker rates triple in the span of a month as seasonal US refinery maintenance and record oil output made more crude available to export.
Europe-bound crude departures from the US Gulf coast climbed to a record 2.2mn b/d in October, according to preliminary data from analytics firm Vortexa, up by 300,000 b/d from September and up 600,000 b/d on the year. At the end of the month, the Suezmax rate to Europe hit an 11-month high of $4.45/bl for WTI, and the Aframax rate to Europe hit a six-month high of $6.25/bl for WTI,according to Argus data.
Over the same time, Europe-bound crude departures from Brazil and Guyana ticked lower from September by 4pc and 8pc to about 375,000 b/d and 195,000 b/d, respectively, according to Vortexa.
Fall maintenance season kept US refinery utilization at 86pc of capacity in the four weeks ended 27 October, according to the US Energy Information Administration, making more crude available for export. US crude production held at a record high through the first four weeks of October at 13.2mn b/d, according to EIA data.
Additional export support came from European onshore crude inventories, which were the lowest level in at least four years at about 455mn bl on 30 October, Vortexa data show.
Spot assessments for prompt delivering WTI to Europe hit an 11-month high on 5 October of $3.05/bl above North Sea Dated, providing plenty of incentive for speculative traders to buy on an fob basis and sell to European buyers, despite rising fob costs on an Ice Brent basis. Also, the Dated-to-Frontline swap — which measures the premium of North Sea Dated to Ice Brent futures — rose to a 14-month high of $2.58/bl on 28 September and remained close to that level through early October.
Europe's increasing reliance on WTI follows EU sanctions placed last December on Russia, previously the continent's biggest supplier of crude. Since then, European refiners have had to source their crude from farther afield, exerting upward pressure on freight rates. Ton-mile demand in October for Europe's crude imports was up by 5.7pc from October 2022, prior to the sanctions, and up by 28pc from October 2021, before the war in Ukraine, according to Vortexa data.
Through October this year, the US has been the biggest crude supplier to Europe, sending about 1.7mn b/d, equivalent to 17pc of the continent's imports, Vortexa data show.
Related news posts
US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
US seeks to purchase 6mn bl for SPR
Washington, 18 September (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration is trying to purchase 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a plan to issue solicitations when prices are "favorable for taxpayers." The US Department of Energy (DOE) today released a solicitation to purchase up to 6mn bl of sour crude for delivery in February-May to the SPR's Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana. If the purchase is successful, it would be the largest single purchase since the Biden administration launched its crude purchase program in early 2023. The solicitation offers a chance for the administration to buy crude for the SPR at a lower price than earlier purchases. Nymex WTI crude futures for delivery in February settled at $68.41/bl on Tuesday. The lowest-priced crude purchase under Biden was a 1.7mn purchase at a price of $72/bl in June 2023, and the average purchase price is about $76/bl. Bids for the solicitation are due by noon ET on 25 September. DOE has already purchased more than 50mn bl of sour crude for the SPR, of which 30mn bl have already been delivered. On 9 September, DOE said it purchased 3.42mn bl of sour crude for the SPR's Bryan Mound storage site at a price of $72.46/bl from the trading firm Macquarie Commodities Trading. The crude will be delivered in January-March, adding to an earlier purchase of nearly 2.5mn bl that will be delivered to the Bryan Mound site over the same time frame. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
TMX is a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn: IISD
Calgary, 18 September (Argus) — Canada's newest crude pipeline to the country's west coast amounts to a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7bn ($6.4bn), a research and policy think-tank said. The federal government is unlikely to recover its C$34bn investment to construct the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) connecting oil producers in Alberta to the Pacific coast, qualifying the project as a major subsidy for the fossil fuel industry, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) on Wednesday. This runs contrary to the government's policy to eliminate direct support for the oil and gas sector , a goal Justin Trudeau's Liberals said was achieved in 2023. The government was the first G20 country to hit this milestone, following a 2009 commitment by the group to reach the goal by 2025. The subsidy as it relates to TMX could be as high as C$18.7bn, the Canadian non-profit said, but noted the entire amount could still be recovered by increasing tolls and/or implementing a levy. This levy could be against either all producers, or all shippers, of crude in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), whether they use TMX or not, the IISD suggested. About 90pc of Canada's crude production comes from western Canada, with much of that derived from Alberta's oil sands region. "A levy in the range of C$1-2/bl . . . over a 10-year period would be sufficient to recover the entire cost of the subsidy and the loss to the Canadian taxpayer," according to the IISD. Alternatively, fixed tolls on TMX would need to be more than doubled to C$24.53/bl from C$11.37/bl to recover all capital costs for the line that went into service on 1 May this year, according to IISD's figures. Variable tolls would be added to this. The terms in the original contracts signed between shippers and then-owner Kinder Morgan were no longer appropriate as they did not reflect the rising risks of the project, said the IISD. Kinder Morgan suspended the project in 2018, which led to the Canadian government buying both the expansion project and the original 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain line from US midstream company that same year. The federal government has maintained its plan to sell the pipeline once operational, but the final tolls are yet to be determined. Whether the operator or shippers will bear the brunt of the massive cost overruns is also still unknown. Tolls, representing cash flows for any prospective buyer, will help dictate the price that the expanded Trans Mountain system will fetch. The IISD suggests a sale price is likely to be between C$17.6bn-26.6bn, resulting in a net loss to the government of between C$8.9bn-18bn assuming its cost of investment climbs to nearly C$36bn before a sale is reached. But despite warnings by opponents it would go underused, TMX has been as advertised, opening a new frontier for oil sands operators and disrupting trade flows throughout the Pacific Rim. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indian windfall tax on domestic crude output at zero
Indian windfall tax on domestic crude output at zero
Mumbai, 18 September (Argus) — India has reduced the windfall tax on domestic crude production to zero from a previous 1,850 rupees/t ($3/bl), in line with a fall in global oil prices. The new rate is effective from 18 September. The rate was last revised on 31 August when it was cut by 12pc . The rate is revised every two weeks. Global crude prices fell nearly 9pc during 1-18 September. The windfall tax was cut to zero during 4-19 April and 16 May-15 July 2023. The Indian government first imposed the windfall tax in July 2022 because of a sharp increase in crude prices that led to domestic crude producers making windfall gains. Indian producers sell crude to domestic refineries at international parity prices. India's crude production in August fell by 4pc from a year earlier to 520,000 b/d, oil ministry data show. Crude imports in August fell by 8pc from July and by nearly 1pc against a year earlier to 4.22m b/d in August, Vortexa data show. India has again extended a deadline to 21 September for submitting bids for the ninth bidding round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's Open Acreage Licensing Programme, as it attempts to boost investment to lift domestic upstream output. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia issues regulation to build energy reserves
Indonesia issues regulation to build energy reserves
A strategic energy reserve comprising stocks of LPG, oil and gasoline could be ready by 2035 under a presidential decree, writes Prethika Nair Singapore, 17 September (Argus) — Indonesia's government has issued a presidential decree outlining plans to build strategic energy reserves, including LPG, by 2035. The decree sets out the goal of establishing stockpiles amounting to 9.64mn bl of gasoline, 10.17mn bl of oil and 525,800t of LPG within the next 11 years. "The government is aware of the importance of having sufficient energy reserves to handle risks such as global oil price fluctuations, natural disasters, or supply disruptions," Indonesian agency the National Energy Council's (NEC) secretary general, Djoko Siswanto, said on 6 September. "The provision of the [reserves] will be carried out in stages until 2035, according to the country's financial capabilities." Funds for establishing the reserves will come from the state budget and other legitimate resources, he said. The NEC will oversee the regulations while the energy ministry and companies with permits in the energy sector will manage the reserves, according to Djoko. Management includes procurement of supplies from domestic production or imports, as well as investment in infrastructure and maintenance, and the use and recovery of the reserves. The location of the reserves will be based on local geology, ease of distribution, spatial planning, supporting infrastructure and the potential for crises or emergencies, and where infrastructure is not sufficient, new facilities will be built, Djoko said. Indonesia aims to reach 1mn b/d of oil production and 12bn ft³/d (124bn m³/yr) of gas production by 2030. But its oil output fell to 606,000 b/d in 2023 from 612,000 b/d in 2022, energy ministry data show. The country's LPG imports amounted to about 6mn t in 2023, energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia says. This contrasts with imports of just over 7mn t, relatively unchanged from a year earlier, Kpler data show. The country imported around 369,000 b/d of gasoline and 29,000 b/d of crude. The energy ministry in August announced plans to boost oil and gas output by reactivating up to 1,500 idle wells, drilling more than 1,000 new wells a year and increasing recovery rates at existing wells to 50pc from 30pc. Indonesia gas production Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more