Italian Oct Pun premium to France above expectations

Spanish Market: Electricity
02/11/23

The Italian single national wholesale power price (Pun) increased its premium to France and Switzerland in October, although November expiry prices suggest spreads could tighten again this month.

The Pun averaged €134.27/MWh in October, €15.27/MWh above October's expiry in the over-the-counter (OTC) market and €18.57/MWh above the September day-ahead average. It delivered at a €49.92/MWh premium to the French Epex spot, €23/MWh higher than in September, after Italy October had expired at a €27.85/MWh OTC premium to France.

The Pun's premium to the Swiss spot rose to €28.71/MWh last month, up from €18.72/MWh in September and above Italy October's €17.90/MWh OTC premium to Switzerland at expiry (see chart).

Lower nuclear unavailability in France weighed on French spot prices. Unavailability totalled 20.7GW in October compared with 21.7GW a month earlier, combining with a 2GW increase in wind output to depress French prices. And in Switzerland, higher nuclear output and lower demand pressured the Swiss Epex spot. Swiss power demand in October declined by 800MW to 6.2GW, the lowest since July 2022.

Scheduled net imports from France and Switzerland — Italy's two largest power exporters — rose by 600MW and 500MW on the month, respectively, to the highest since July at 2.4GW and 3GW. The increase occurred despite lower Italian demand, which declined by 1.4GW to 31.1GW in October owing to mild temperatures in Rome and Milan, weighing on cooling demand.

Operating margins for Italian gas-fired plants rose by 22pc on the month, with day-ahead clean spark spreads for 55pc efficiency increasing to €26.81/MWh in October from €20.87/MWh in September. The PSV day-ahead gas contract increased by €5.77/MWh to a €44.09/MWh average, while EU emissions trading scheme spot allowances averaged €80.93/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down by almost €1.10/t of CO2e on the month.

But gas-fired generation declined in October, by 400MW on the month to 11.5GW, owing to higher wind output and more competitive imports into the north zone. Wind generation rose by 200MW to the highest since May at 2.5GW.

The Pun delivered at €131.09/MWh in week 43, down by €18.14/MWh from the previous week and the lowest weekly average since the last week of September. The premium to the equivalent French and Swiss spots narrowed on the week, falling by €24.55/MWh and €13.43/MWh to €41.73/MWh and €27.05/MWh, respectively. And the north zone premiums to France and Switzerland closed slightly lower at €40.38/MWh and €25.71/MWh, respectively.

French power remains competitive

Imports from France may continue to be attractive this month on expectations of more expensive gas-fired generation.

Italy's November OTC premium to France increased from €16.70/MWh at the start of the month to expire at €34.25/MWh, although below an all-time high of €39.10/MWh on 27 October. French nuclear unavailability is scheduled at 13.7GW in November, well below 20.7GW in October and the lowest since January 2022.

Improved French nuclear unavailability may lift exports to Italy and reduce the need for more expensive Italian thermal generation. Italian front-month clean spark spreads for 55pc efficiency ended October at €20.14/MWh, down from €21.39/MWh at the start of the month and below a monthly high of €25.22/MWh on 13 October.

November spark spreads closed below levels at the beginning of the month, but sharp losses on the November PSV gas product on 31 October's session outpaced those on cif ARA coal swaps, flipping clean spark spreads for 55pc efficiency to an advantage to clean dark spreads for 40pc-efficient units for the first time in nine sessions at €2.60/MWh (see chart).

By Timothy Santonastaso

Italian spot premium to France, Switzerland €/MWh

November operating margins €/MWh

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19/12/25

Australia needs electricity carbon policy: Commission

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The Australian government should introduce a national market-based policy to drive electricity sector decarbonisation, potentially modelled on the existing safeguard mechanism, economic research and advisory body the Productivity Commission (PC) said in a final report today. The PC had previously recommended applying the safeguard mechanism to electricity generators at the facility level, but it may be better to consider this issue separately, it noted in a final inquiry report into "investing in cheaper, cleaner energy and the net zero transformation". "Multiple policy options will need to be considered for the electricity sector, and even if a baseline-and-credit scheme is preferred, it may be better to keep this separate from the safeguard mechanism, at least at first, to avoid risks of uncertainty and disruption in the carbon credit markets that support that policy," the PC said. Currently there is little relationship between the emissions intensity of Australia's remaining coal-fired power plants and their announced retirement dates, according to the commission. Recognising the value of emissions reduction would pave the way for more emissions-intensive plants to retire earlier, it argued. Electricity excluded from safeguard mechanism Under the safeguard mechanism, facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across several sectors earn safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) if they report scope 1 emissions below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if their emissions are above the threshold. The electricity sector, Australia's largest emitter, is effectively excluded from the mechanism because the emissions reduction policy for the segment has been focused on renewable electricity targets. The mechanism applies a single sectoral baseline of 198mn t CO2e/yr across all electricity generators connected to Australia's main electricity grids, which is way above recent data — emissions from the electricity generation sector reached a combined 138.9mn t CO2e in the 2023-24 compliance year. A decision on whether to expand the mechanism to electricity may be considered in the upcoming safeguard mechanism review in 2026-27 . NEM review But any new policy will need to complement reforms arising from the National Electricity Market (NEM) review, which also received a final report this week . The decision will also need to be consistent with several policies and agreements already in place to support new investment or manage the exit of coal plants across Australia, the PC noted. While the existing Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the proposed Electricity Services Entry Mechanism (ESEM) scheme mainly target renewable output or capacity, a least-cost emissions-reduction policy would help companies deciding when to retire coal and gas plants, according to the commission. This will be even more important if the Australian government prioritises firming auctions, which may support new gas-fired plants. Emissions policy uncertainty has been a major barrier to investment in gas-powered generation, the PC said. "Firming auctions will be more effective if project proponents know in advance how their emissions will be treated," it noted. Apart from a policy to drive electricity sector decarbonisation, the PC's final report urges the government to expand the safeguard mechanism , phase out fuel tax credits for on-road heavy vehicle operators, and reduce barriers to adopting low-emissions technology for heavy vehicles. And it also calls the government to phase out the fringe benefits tax exemption for electric vehicles (EVs), a recommendation that was criticised by industry body EV Council . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

18/12/25

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: French power in slump

17/12/25

Viewpoint: French power in slump

London, 17 December (Argus) — France enters 2026 with power prices in a slump, as stagnant demand meets strong nuclear availability and ever-increasing renewables output. Forward prices are well below spot delivery in recent years, with the Cal-26 contract assessed at €49.75/MWh on Tuesday, compared with spot delivery of about €60/MWh in 2024 and 2025. Lower gas prices explain some of the low forward prices, as does increased renewables capacity, but French hydro reserves are well below previous years, and EdF expects to produce less nuclear power year on year because of further planned long maintenance shutdowns. If low spot delivery confirms that these forward prices were correct as to how fundamentals would play out, it could limit any potential for upside risk. And the course of any potential demand recovery over the next few years will determine whether the contango shape of the French forward years is justified by fundamentals. The French yearly contracts are unusual with Europe being in contango, rising out to the end of the decade, compared with most other countries which are in backwardation. Fundamentals arguments put forward to explain this include expectations of increased interconnection to more expensive markets, or an uptick in demand, especially from industry and data centres. But demand has remained stubbornly flat over recent years. Industrial, data centre and hydrogen projects with a total demand of 30GW have grid capacity reserved for them. If all of these projects came to light and used their full capacity, demand would leap by 180TWh by 2030, or about 40pc. Not all of these projects will be built, and those that are will not use their full capacity all the time. Grid operator RTE's high estimate is for 60pc of projects to be completed, which will then use only 20-60pc of their grid capacity. But even if only some of them are built, this could push demand growth to 1-3pc/yr. RTE's low estimate for the incremental demand from these projects by 2030, as well as additional electric vehicles, comes to 2.7GW, while its high estimate is for 6.3GW of incremental demand. A rapid increase in demand could outpace supply gains from the several GW/yr of solar capacity likely to come on line in the coming years, mechanically tightening France's balance, if it is met and there is not a fall in demand from other sectors. France may be reaching a crunch point on renewables. The ambition of governments of recent years to advance on renewables and nuclear has hit the buffers, as the lack of any demand growth removes justification for increasing capacity. Low market prices are an indication that France does not particularly need any extra renewables capacity in the short term. Capture rates for solar have fallen year on year, while lower market prices mean the bill for public subsidy for renewables grows ever higher. Some increases are locked in over the next few years, but appetite may be lacking to continue growth beyond that. And political obstacles could make a low-renewables strategy easier. Right-wing parties are firmly opposed to renewables, and the government relies on their tacit support to remain in office. The government intends to publish the PPE3 10-year energy strategy by the end of the year, which in this draft includes cuts to renewables targets, it has said. The other big dossier of French energy is the new nuclear programme. EdF has already started preparatory works to build two 1.6GW reactors at Penly, and plans to build a further four, with eight more on the drawing board. But the experience of the Flamanville 3 reactor — entering service more than a decade late and many billions over budget — could make any government hesitate before offering EdF funding for more reactors. This is all the more true if prices remain low in the coming years, which would cut EdF's ability to fund large investments and require more government support. The mooted €100/MWh price point of the new nuclear, more than twice the current market price, is a further impediment. And the programme is not expected to come into service until the late 2030s at the earliest, meaning a government which holds fire can spare itself large costs without incurring any power shortage during its term in office. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU to amend CBAM rules for power

16/12/25

EU to amend CBAM rules for power

London, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission will amend the rules set out for the application of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for power imports to the bloc, providing a pathway to declaring actual emissions values for electricity, according to leaked documents seen by Argus on Tuesday. The EU will amend the existing guidance to CBAM regulation based on stakeholder feedback that rules for electricity are overly rigid, and that the framework does not acknowledge progress made by non-EU electricity producers in decarbonising their generation mixes, limiting incentives for third-country producers to reduce emissions. The updates were based on a consultation with market participants held from 1 July-26 August. This regulation means that actual emissions associated with the production of electricity can be declared. Serbia recently announced plans to implement CO2 measurement, reporting and verification standards, ahead of the country's first emissions and carbon tax law. This appears to provide a pathway for output from renewable sources to be exempt from CBAM. Previously, electricity was treated separately from other physical commodities under the legislation, where carbon quantity would have been based on average country-wide emissions rather than on individual plant emissions. The document also addresses physical and indirect power purchase agreements (PPA), and clarifies that CBAM will only be applied to explicit capacity allocation, removing the previous language that required the absence of network congestion in order for CBAM exemption to apply for renewables output sold under a PPA. If actual emissions data are not available, an "average grid emission factor" for exporting countries will be used in order to reflect decarbonisation in the country of origin, which would include countries' current generation mix and be lower than the previous default emissions value, which used an average of IEA emissions over the past five years. Definition of market coupling The document also lays out a novel definition of market coupling, which could provide a pathway to CBAM exemption. The EU proposes that for the purpose of integration of a third country's electricity market with the EU a "memorandum of understanding between the Commission and the third countries that have fully transposed the relevant electricity market acquis" can be agreed, and that this memorandum would then set the "timeline for the application of the exemption foreseen". Market coupling would then be achieved through legislative means, rather than as defined by market coupling through EU power market regulatory body Acer, which requires an 18-month window for technical preparation once a coupling integration plan is approved. Serbia is the frontrunner for market coupling, and has previously said that it can couple with the EU by 2027 at the earliest, which would miss the 1 January 2026 deadline for CBAM exemption, as once its application has been approved it is still subject to the 18-month waiting period. This could indicate that countries with EU regulatory body the Energy Community could receive exemption from CBAM until 2030, as 2022's energy integration package provided a pathway for exemption from CBAM for four years, provided countries coupled with the EU power market. By Annemarie Pettinato Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s energy demand falls on economic slowdown

12/12/25

Japan’s energy demand falls on economic slowdown

Osaka, 12 December (Argus) — Japan's energy consumption in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year fell again from a year earlier, pressured by slower industry activity. The country's 2024-25 final energy use totalled 292mn kiloliters, or 1.84bn bl of oil equivalent (boe), down by 1.7pc from a year earlier, according to preliminary data released on 12 December by the trade and industry ministry Meti. This marks the third consecutive annual decline. Coal use in final energy consumption fell by 3.7pc from a year earlier to 172mn boe in 2024-25, while oil demand declined by 3.7pc to 841mn boe. This came as energy consumption in the manufacturing and transportation sectors declined by 3.2pc to 766mn boe, and by 1.5pc to 445mn boe respectively. But demand for natural gas and city gas rose by 1.5pc from a year earlier to 167mn boe. Power demand also edged up by 1pc to 517mn boe. Coal-fired power generation edged up by 0.9pc to 283.4TWh during the period, while oil- and gas-fired power dropped by 2.7pc to 71TWh and by 2.4pc to 315.7TWh. Zero-emission power supplies, including renewables and nuclear power, rose by 3.9pc to 322.1TWh. Japan's energy-derived CO2 emissions fell by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 908mn t in 2024-25, supported by the increased use of renewable and nuclear power supplies. The 2024-25 emissions represented a 26pc fall compared with the country's 2013-14 baseline, or the lowest level since 1990-91. The lower energy consumption, as well as increased use of domestic renewable and nuclear energy, helped lift Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate to 16.4pc in 2024-25, up by 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, based on International Energy Agency methodology. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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