10/11/26
Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC
Berlin, 10 November (Argus) — Libya's internationally recognised Tripoli-based
Government of National Unity (GNU) has pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 15pc in 2035 compared with 2023, conditional on international
finance. The country submitted its first climate plan under the Paris climate
agreement — or nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to UN climate arm the
UNFCCC. It covers the 2026-35 period. Without international finance, Libya
expects its GHG emissions to rise by 20pc over the period, still an improvement
on the almost 35pc increase expected under a business-as-usual scenario, the GNU
said. Libya expects most of the GHG reductions to stem from gas flaring
recovery, which will capture and use natural gas currently wasted during oil
production, reducing emissions while increasing energy supply, the GNU said. Gas
flaring recovery projects are expected to avoid around 90mn t CO2e and save 40mn
tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of natural gas for domestic use or export in
2026–35. Emissions cuts in power generation are also expected to contribute
significantly. Political instability since Libya's 2011 civil war explains the
late submission of its first NDC, and also leads to challenging financing
conditions, the GNU said. Libya emitted 97.3mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in
2023, with the energy sector — including not just oil, gas and power production
but also transport — the biggest emitter by far, accounting for 88pc. The
country pointed to its substantial crude reserves, saying that the exploitation
of oil and gas is an opportunity for investment and development. But it is also
working to diversify its economy to protect itself from oil prices fluctuations
and contribute to the energy transition and cut its exposure to environmental
vulnerabilities, the GNU said. Implementing Libya's emissions reduction measures
will require an estimated $29.6bn over 2026–35, of which domestic finance
accounts for 31pc, according to the NDC. The energy sector will require the
lion's share, at $28bn. But while the largest overall contribution to the cuts
will come from gas flaring recovery, at 36pc, this is estimated to need just
$1.9 bn, or 6.3pc, of the total finance. This compares with the power sector,
which will contribute 26pc to emissions cuts but is expected to need $14.6bn,
around half the total finance. The transport sector will need $8.8 bn, or almost
30pc of the total. Funds will support fleet modernisation, fuel efficiency,
alternative fuels, electrification and public transport. The GNU also pointed to
state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC's) engagement in international
initiatives such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), and related
tools including the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS). The GNU has been
assessing the viability of replacing diesel with gas for power generation. The
switch to natural gas in the country's power sector could save 40mn toe in
2026-35. Libya also needs to develop international partnerships to position
itself at the "forefront of major research into hydrogen, particularly green
hydrogen", the GNU said. And the GNU wishes to make "full use" of the
cooperative mechanisms provided for in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which
includes two international carbon market mechanisms. Libya is also looking at
introducing a "gradual" carbon tax or carbon market, the GNU said, as a "tool to
improve energy efficiency and to secure financing to reduce fugitive emissions
or in the electricity, industrial, waste, agriculture and forestry sectors". The
GNU anticipates further GDP growth until 2035, along with a "significant"
reduction in the country's carbon intensity even under the business-as-usual
scenario. This is as the country starts from a "very high emission" level owing
to the "total" absence of emissions reduction policies, it said. By Chloe
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