08/10/26
No plans to attack Iran before 3 Nov: Trump
Washington, 8 October (Argus) — The US will not resume hostilities against Iran
before the 3 November midterm congressional elections, President Donald Trump
said on Thursday. The US is "having productive discussions" with Iran but the US
naval blockade and campaign of economic pressure against Iran will continue,
Trump said in a social media post. He claimed that 22mn bl of crude flowed
through the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday under the protection of the US
military. Trump's statement is not an ironclad assurance that direct hostilities
between the US and Iran will not resume any time soon. Tehran has confirmed
continued indirect dialogue with the US, through mediators, but chances of a
diplomatic breakthrough appear low. Trump, meanwhile, is working to prevent a
further increase in US retail fuel prices, which already have hurt the
Republican party's chances of retaining control of both chambers of the US
Congress at the midterms. WTI and Ice Brent crude futures climbed higher on
Thursday after Iran expanded attacks on tankers in the Mideast Gulf and the
strait of Hormuz. November Nymex WTI fell after Trump's statement, but it was
still 4pc higher, at $91.65/bl, than the Wednesday settlement price as of 1:45pm
ET. Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in
the last week, challenging the Trump administration's claim that it had restored
oil flows through the strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels. The US-sponsored
operation to enable transporting greater volumes of oil through Hormuz has
significantly increased freight and insurance costs for the tankers that do make
it to the Gulf of Oman without being hit by Iran. The Central Command (Centcom),
which oversees the Middle East-based US forces, on Thursday pegged the daily
flow of oil and other products through Hormuz at 20mn b/d. Centcom chief Admiral
Brad Cooper, during a virtual meeting with the representatives of the freight
industry "acknowledged the sacrifices made by civilian crews due to unwarranted
Iranian attacks". The US Treasury Department, also on Thursday, announced
sanctions on an additional 17 tankers accused of transporting Iranian bitumen,
asphalt, ethylene, fuel oil, naphtha, propane and crude to markets in Asia.
Treasury also announced sanctions against India-based broker Samudra Marine
Services and 18 other companies in the UAE, UK, Turkey and other countries,
accusing the firms of facilitating sales of Iranian crude and products. Do the
midterms matter? Iran has been part of Trump's election narrative for about a
month, as he claimed that Tehran is hoping for a victory by the US Democrats
who, according to Trump, would be too soft on the Iranian government.
Officially, Tehran has pronounced itself indifferent to the outcome of the US
congressional elections. Tehran has pitched a plan to stop attacking ships
passing through Hormuz if the US removes the naval blockade, pauses sanctions
and repatriates frozen Iranian funds in foreign banks — effectively returning to
the terms of the now defunct June "memorandum of understanding" between the US
and Iran. Trump said earlier this month he rejected the proposal. But Iran's
foreign minister Abbas Araghchi claimed on Thursday that the Iranian plan
remains a subject of discussions. Trump encountered significant blowback in the
US and the Mideast Gulf after concluding a deal with Iran in June, Washington
think tank Arab Gulf States Institute executive vice-president William Roebuck
said on 6 October. Trump as a result came to the conclusion that "he was better
off leaning into the war through the midterms and not cutting a deal that would
involve a lot of concessions that would reflect the kind of leverage that Iran
had built up in the course of the the war," Roebuck said. US Democratic
lawmakers earlier this year succeeded in advancing resolutions, with limited
Republican support, that called on Trump to end hostilities with Iran. But even
a majority-Democratic Congress cannot compel the White House to stop the war
unless it votes down the Pentagon's request for supplemental funding to
replenish the US munitions stocks and pay for other costs of the war — an issue
that may not find broad support within the Democratic party. Trump appears to
believe "that he'll be freer, actually, to do what he wants and to put more
pressure" on Iran after the midterms, Roebuck said. "I don't think that's going
to work, but that's the dynamic that (Trump is) working with." By Haik Gugarats
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