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Investida das montadoras não deve salvar setor do aço

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 14/03/24

É pouco provável que os novos investimentos anunciados por fabricantes de automóveis no Brasil proporcione um grande impulso ao setor siderúrgico do país, que está paralelamente pressionado pelo aumento das importações.

Desde o início deste ano, as principais montadoras anunciaram bilhões de dólares em investimentos para aumentar a produção e impulsionar operações mais verdes.

O Brasil importou 1,6 milhão de toneladas (t) de aço destinado ao uso automotivo em 2023, um aumento de 4,6pc em comparação com 2022, de acordo com o Instituto Aço Brasil. Espera-se que as importações totais de aço aumentem mais 20pc em 2024, enquanto o consumo aparente deverá crescer apenas 1pc, disse o instituto.

O ligeiro aumento no consumo projetado ocorre mesmo com as montadoras General Motors (GM), Volkswagen, Hyundai e Toyota anunciando investimentos no país. A Stellantis também disse neste mês que planeja investir US$6 bilhões no Brasil e lançar 40 novos modelos de veículos até 2030.

A montadora chinesa BYD também iniciou este mês a fabricação de veículos elétricos (EV) no Brasil, afirmando que planeja produzir 150.000 veículos anualmente até o final deste ano, fazendo do país seu centro de exportação de EV na América do Sul.

As projeções da associação siderúrgica de aumento das importações em detrimento da produção doméstica reforçam comentários recentes de produtores e analistas de aço.

As exportações totais de aço da China em 2023 aumentaram 36pc, para 90,3 milhões de t. Participantes de mercado esperam que as exportações de aço se mantenham num nível relativamente elevado em 2024, uma vez que a procura local da China permanecerá fraca, pressionada por uma lenta recuperação na sua indústria imobiliária — o maior setor consumidor de aço do país.

O Brasil importou 2,9 milhões de t de aço da China em 2023, um aumento de 62pc em comparação com 2022, segundo a Aço Brasil.

"[A China] não é considerada uma economia de mercado", a associação siderúrgica latino-americana Alacero disse à Argus. "Isso lhes permite inundar o mundo com produtos siderúrgicos e derivados a preços muito baixos".

As montadoras não responderam aos pedidos de comentários sobre se preferem aço importado ou nacional para produção, mas a associação brasileira de veículos Anfavea disse à Argus que o preço do aço tem impacto direto no custo de fabricação de veículos e de máquinas autopropulsadas.

As montadoras ainda podem preferir aço local mais caro, já que tendem a priorizar a entrega no prazo devido ao perfil de produção e aos estoques just-in-time, disse à Argus a analista sênior da Moody's Investor Service, Carolina Chimenti.

"Se houver um grande aumento na produção automotiva (tanto de leves como de pesados, e também na produção de máquinas e equipamentos agrícolas, por exemplo), isso tende a aumentar a produção de aço também", completou.

Alguns produtores locais estão otimistas de que os fabricantes comprarão aço nacional. Uma fonte disse à Argus que "qualquer movimento" em direção à industrialização é positivo para o setor, que vem perdendo sua participação no crescimento do país ao longo dos anos.

A perda de estoque por oxidação ou qualidade inferior e a falta de especificidade para o setor automobilístico também foram citadas como aspectos negativos para o aço importado. Mas os preços voltariam a ser fundamentais.

O aço importado da China está tão mais barato que o aço nacional que a indústria prefere correr o risco de parte do volume loteado vir com alguns dos problemas mencionados acima e ser descartado, disse Igor Guedes, analista de metais da Genial Investimentos.

Impacto sobre o ferro-gusa

Qualquer aumento notável na procura por aço nacional também poderá afetar as exportações de matérias-primas siderúrgicas, como o ferro-gusa.

O ferro-gusa é uma matéria-prima essencial para as usinas baseadas em fornos elétricos dos Estados Unidos, que constituem a maior parte da sua capacidade total de produção de aço.

Os EUA importaram mais de 2,7 milhões de toneladas de ferro-gusa do Brasil em 2023, representando mais de 75pc do total das importações dos EUA durante o ano, de acordo com dados governamentais.

A dependência do ferro-gusa brasileiro cresceu devido às interrupções na cadeia de abastecimento causadas pela guerra entre a Rússia e a Ucrânia e poderá aumentar a pressão sobre os preços do material.

A Argus precificou o ferro-gusa pela última vez em US$430/t FOB sul em 7 de março.

Não está claro se os produtores locais do ferro-gusa prefeririam as vendas no mercado interno, uma vez que alguns fabricantes citaram benefícios fiscais de exportação, por exemplo, compensando os ganhos no mercado interno.

"Os compradores brasileiros pagam muito pouco pelo ferro-gusa nacional", disse uma fonte.


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03/02/25

US tariffs to push automotive prices higher

US tariffs to push automotive prices higher

Houston, 3 February (Argus) — US tariffs on Canada and Mexico would likely lift automotive production costs noticeably higher as automakers and their suppliers rely on multiple cross-border shipments. US president Donald Trump said over the weekend he would enact 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada effective 4 February, but delayed Mexican tariffs until at least March . An all-encompassing tariff on the two and potential retaliatory tariffs could severely hamper regional automotive producers, which draw from cross border flows for both raw materials including finished steel and aluminum as well as integral parts and components. The tariffs are meant, in part, to drive more manufacturing back into the US — as General Motors chief executive Mary Barra said her company would likely do should the tariffs be imposed on Canada and Mexico. Other automotive manufacturers could possibly follow suit in order to escape the increased costs associated with tariffs. But shifting operations from one country to another would be costly and time consuming. Some manufacturers produce parts for the same vehicle on different sides of the border, meaning even a car or truck assembled in the US could see its costs increase if it relies on parts made by the same company at a Canadian factory. Completed vehicles The US imported 2.855mn of its smaller passenger vehicles from Mexico and Canada between January and November of 2024, according to customs data, or about 41pc of all such vehicles. The two nations also accounted for the import of 1.16mn heavier vehicles designed for the transport of goods in the same period, or about 95pc of all of those vehicles. Mexico alone sent 83,201 tractors to the US for the year-to-date 2024, roughly 39pc of the US total. Automotive parts Cross border flows of parts and accessories could be curtailed even more as they likely will have to cross in and out of the US in multiple stages, potentially receiving multiple 25pc tariff hits. The US imported 3.4bn motor vehicle parts and accessories from the two countries or about 38pc of all such imports, and exported 3,073t of these parts back across the border to Canada and Mexico. Nearly 90pc of the US' exports of spark-ignition piston engines, or 3.57mn units, were sent to Canada and Mexico, while 30pc of all US imports of such engines, or 2.26mn units, come from the two countries. The US imported roughly 82pc or 43,582t of its cast-iron parts for internal combustion engines from Mexico. Metal mounting and fitting imports for automobiles from Mexico alone represented 73pc of US totals, with the US in return exporting 64pc of such products back to Mexico. Canada took in 24pc or 29,035 metric tonnes (t) of the product. The US acquired 40pc or nearly 36,000 of larger auto bodies and chassis from the two nations in 2024, while sending 57.5pc of its exports or 21,553 back across the same borders. Alternatives limited Although some alternative import sources do exist, many of these auto plants are located inland of key receiving ports and have closely tied operations that could require multiple stagged parts replacements. Some vehicles are estimated to cross US borders into Canada and Mexico and back as many as seven or eight times before final assembly, according to a 2021 Congressional Research Service paper. China would be a major alternative supplier for US or Canadian automotive parts in multiple cases, including for internal combustion engines. The US imported $87.1bn in light vehicles from Canada and Mexico and $77.5bn in automotive parts in 2022, according to a 2023 US International Trade Commission report. Any tariff could notably sting regional automotive producers just climbing out of multi-year low sales levels. US total vehicle sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.22mn in December, the highest level since May of 2021, according to Federal Reserve data. By Cole Sullivan and Zach Schumacher US automotive imports from Canada count Jan-Nov 2024 Jan-Nov 2023 Diff ±% Share of total volumes Full vehicles, bodies, and chassis Tractors 1,612 1,395 217 15.60% 0.80% Motor vehicles 915,408 1,138,494 -223,086 -19.60% 13.00% Motor vehicles for transport of goods 152,232 150,279 1,953 1.30% 12.50% Special-use vehicles (ex. firetrucks) 1,826 1,554 272 17.50% 53.40% Work trucks (ex. airport luggage vehicles) 1,595 1,656 -61 -3.70% 8.00% Vehicle chassis fitted with engines 1,821 1,622 199 12.30% 14.60% Vehicle bodies 8,896 8,584 312 3.60% 11.50% Spark-ignition engine parts 705,337 924,439 -219,102 -23.70% 9.40% Compression-ignition engine parts 3,198 3,759 -561 -14.90% 0.10% Parts and accessories 1.23bn 1.28bn -48mn -3.80% 13.70% — US Census Bureau US automotive imports from Mexico count Jan-Nov 2024 Jan-Nov 2023 Diff ±% Share of total volumes Full vehicles, bodies, and chassis Tractors 83,201 108,267 -25,066 -23.20% 38.90% Motor vehicles 1.94mn 1.79mn 151,439 8.50% 28.00% Motor vehicles for transport of goods 1,007,433 919,850 87,583 9.50% 82.40% Special-use vehicles (ex. firetrucks) 35 70 -35 -50.00% 1.00% Work trucks (ex. airport luggage vehicles) 6,513 4,214 2,299 54.60% 32.50% Vehicle chassis fitted with engines 4 7 -3 -42.90% <0.1% Vehicle bodies 25,285 15,922 9,363 58.80% 32.60% Spark-ignition engine parts 1,551,874 1,415,311 136,563 9.60% 20.60% Compression-ignition engine parts 1,526,994 1,943,567 -416,573 -21.40% 68.60% Parts and accessories 2.17bn 2.18bn -8,121,686 -0.40% 24.30% — US Census Bureau Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US delays Mexico tariffs by a month: Update


03/02/25
03/02/25

US delays Mexico tariffs by a month: Update

Adds comments from press conference, White House response, historic context. Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — The US has agreed to postpone the 4 February implementation of 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods by one month to allow more time for negotiations, President Claudia Sheinbaum said today. Under an agreement with the US, Mexico will immediately reinforce its border with the US with 10,000 national guard troops to limit drug trafficking into the US, with a specific focus on fentanyl, Sheinbaum posted on social media platform X. The US pledged to take stronger action to curb the flow of high-powered firearms into Mexico, she said. The pause will allow "Mexico time to demonstrate good results for the US people and our people" on key security concerns, Sheinbaum said. US president Donald Trump confirmed the tariff delay in a social media post, saying there would be negotiations in the coming weeks with Mexican officials and US secretary of state Marco Rubio, secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent and secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick. The White House praised Mexico's willingness to respond positively to the tariff threats, while characterizing the Canadian response as [a] misunderstanding. "The good news is that in our conversations over the weekend, one of the things we've noticed is that Mexicans are very, very serious about doing what President Trump said," White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said in a broadcast interview. Canada had "misunderstood the plain language of the executive order and they're interpreting it as a trade war." Trump said this morning that he "looks forward to negotiations" with Sheinbaum to reach a deal between the countries. He is also talking to Canadian premier Justin Trudeau later today. The announcements today do not address Trump's complaints of a trade deficit with Mexico, which Sheinbaum said during a press conference today the US misinterprets as a negative. Both the US and Mexico benefit from the region becoming more competitive, she said. Mexico will also keep its retaliatory tariffs on the table: "We will save Plan B for later, if necessary," Sheinbaum said. The current tensions are similar to those from 2019, when Trump threatened to impose 5pc tariffs on all Mexican goods. He relented when former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Mexico would deploy 21,000 national guard troops to contain the flow of migrants toward the US. If the tariffs were implemented, it would disrupt the energy trade between the US and Mexico. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Mexico also imports much of its road fuels and LPG from the US. But the country is unlikely to hit these goods with retaliatory tariffs, according to market sources. By Antonio Gozain and Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US manufacturing expands in Jan after 26 months: ISM


03/02/25
03/02/25

US manufacturing expands in Jan after 26 months: ISM

Houston, 3 February (Argus) — US manufacturing activity expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction, according to the Institute for Supply Management's latest factory survey. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) registered 50.9 in January, up from 49.2 in December. The new orders index rose to 55.1 last month from 52.1 in December, marking a third month of expansion. Readings above 50 signal expansion while readings under that point to contraction. Production rose to 52.5 last month from 49.9 the prior month. Employment rose to 50.3 from 45.4. "Demand clearly improved, while output expanded and inputs remained accommodative," ISM said. "Demand and production improved; and employment expanded." US factory activity expanded robustly in the first two years after Covid-19 hit, then contracted for the subsequent two years, even as growth in services activity, the largest part of the economy, maintained the overall economy in expansion territory. The new export orders index rose by 2.4 points to 52.4 and the imports index rose by 1.4 points to 51.1. The prices index rose to 54.9 from 52.5, with aluminum, freight rates, natural gas, and scrap among gainers. "Prices growth was moderate, indicating that further growth will put additional pressure on prices," ISM said. The inventories index fell by 2.5 to 45.9, signaling contracting inventories. Backlog of orders fell by one point to 44.9, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 28th consecutive month after 27 months of expansion. Supplier deliveries rose by 0.8 to 50.9, suggesting marginally slower deliveries. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US delays Mexico tariffs by a month


03/02/25
03/02/25

US delays Mexico tariffs by a month

Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — The US has agreed to postpone the implementation of 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods for one month, "allowing Mexico time to demonstrate good results for the US people and our people" on key security concerns, President Claudia Sheinbaum said today. Under the agreement Mexico will immediately reinforce its border with the US with 10,000 national guard troops to prevent drug trafficking into the US, with a specific focus on fentanyl, Sheinbaum posted on social media platform X following a conversation with President Donald Trump. The US pledged to take stronger action to curb the flow of high-powered firearms into Mexico, she said. US president Donald Trump confirmed the tariff delay in a social media post, saying there would be negotiations in the coming weeks with Mexican officials and US secretary of state Marco Rubio, secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent and secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick. The tariffs were originally set to take effect on 4 February. By Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian budget's infrastructure, green push boosts steel


03/02/25
03/02/25

Indian budget's infrastructure, green push boosts steel

Mumbai, 3 February (Argus) — A 10pc increase in the Indian government's capital spending, including a focus on shipbuilding and decarbonisation, are among the positive outcomes for the steel sector outlined in the union budget, industry sources said. The government has allocated 11.2 trillion rupees ($129bn) for capital expenditure (capex) in the April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year, compared to a revised estimate of Rs10.2 trillion in the current fiscal year. The government's initial capex target for 2024-25 had been Rs11.1 trillion, which was revised lower during the budget presentation by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 1 February. Robust infrastructure spending will boost domestic steel demand, market participants said. The building, construction and infrastructure sector was estimated to account for 69pc of India's total steel consumption in 2023-24, according to a report by Deloitte. Indian steelmakers have been banking on increased government spending to drive a recovery in domestic steel demand this year after last year's funding slowdown amid elections. But some industry experts have cautioned that the capex increase may not be sufficient to drive double-digit steel demand growth in 2025-26. The budget has not increased the allocation for roads and railways, which are major drivers of steel demand, the vice-president and sector head at Indian credit rating agency Icra, Ritabrata Ghosh, said. In the financial years 2021-24, the compound annual growth rate (Cagr) for government spending was about 30pc, Ghosh said. "In the past, [the] unprecedented pace of government spending was a shock absorber for the domestic steel industry, insulating it partially from external pressures such as imports. While 10pc growth in capex spend is still robust, it won't be as strong a stabilizer for the steel industry as it was in the last three years," he said. Focus on nuclear energy, scrap The government will invest Rs200bn to set up a nuclear energy initiative for the development of small modular reactors. The nuclear energy push "will help in driving the green transformation of the country and steel industry", ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India's chief executive Dilip Oommen said. "The steel sector also stands to benefit from indigenous shipbuilding and marine development projects, and enhanced credit availability for MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises), which will have access to financing for businesses involved in the construction and manufacturing sectors," he said. Provisions to support MSMEs include an enhanced credit guarantee cover, customised credit cards with a Rs500,000 limit for micro enterprises and the launch of an export promotion initiative. For the ship industry's long-term financing, the government will set up a maritime development fund worth Rs250bn, of which it will contribute 49pc. The budget also aims to increase the categories and capacity of ships by providing the necessary infrastructure, labour and technological support. Additionally, ship scrapping will be incentivised through credit notes for shipbreaking in Indian yards. Under this scheme, a credit note of 40pc of the scrap value will be issued, "which can be reimbursed to buy new made in India ships", according to a government statement. This measure is likely to boost availability of local scrap in India, aiding decarbonisation efforts, according to industry experts. India's secondary steelmakers use scrap as a feedstock in induction furnaces to produce steel, but often rely on imported material, given low domestic availability. Increased use of scrap in steelmaking is a key focus area in the government's green steel initiative as each ton of scrap reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 58pc, compared with iron-ore based production. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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