Latest production and stock data issued by Pakistan's National Fertilizer Development Centre point to a lack of DAP supply unless enough imports are bought for the kharif season that runs from April to September.
For kharif, DAP availability is anticipated to be 536,000t, comprising 98,000t of opening stocks and 438,000t of local production. DAP demand is expected to be 897,000t. Assuming no imports, the deficit is nearly 50,000t in June, rising to 150,000t in July, 259,000t in August and 361,000t in September. The NDFC has advised that gas supplies to local production assets need to be maintained and that enough imports are secured to ensure supply.
For now, DAP import demand is subdued because of adequate stocks through to May. Latest indications peg DAP at $610-620/t cfr, down on the last Argus assessment at $615-627/t cfr. Domestic DAP prices fell back in February by 2.8pc to 12,399 rupees/t ($44/50kg bag) ex-Karachi, or around $880/t.
Pakistan DAP offtake reached 115,000t in February, DAP production reached 72,000t and imports were 71,800t. Total DAP availability in February was 204,000t, comprising 60,000t of opening stocks, 72,000t of imports and the same of production. Offtake was 115,000t leaving a closing stock of 89,000t.
This is a little below the 100,000t minimum buffer owing to weak output in January as a result of late phosphoric acid shipments to Pakistan because of the ongoing situation in the Red Sea. Output locally at the Fauji plant recovered to normal levels last month.
DAP availability overall for rabi (October 2023 to March 2024) is estimated at 977,000t, comprising 38,000t of opening stocks, 392,000t of local output and 546,000t of imports. DAP demand is estimated at 849,000t.
