European bio-bunker March prices firm on uncertainty

Marine biodiesel prices firmed in the second half of March across Europe as higher levels in underlying markets combined with supply uncertainty to lend support to blend prices, despite limited demand.

Very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) firmed by $16/t to $585.58/t on a dob Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) basis and $17.47/t to $628.17/t on a dob Gibraltar-Algeciras-Ceuta (GAC) basis during 14-26 March compared with the two weeks prior. Gains in the fossil market were mainly attributed to an increase in European refinery turnarounds as well as stronger crude values. The front-month Ice Brent crude futures 16:30 GMT marker averaged $86.07/bl on 14-16 March, an increase of $2.92/bl from 1-13 March.

Rising fossil levels were accompanied by increases in the biodiesel spot barge market. Prices for advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0°C cold-filter plugging point (CFPP) on a fob ARA barge basis averaged $1,407.15/t during the last two weeks of March, a $53.58/t rise from 1-13 March. Used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) barges firmed by $47.47/t to $1,316/t during the same timeframe. Biodiesel prices have firmed from long-term lows on the back of a reduction in European production and limited demand.

Higher prices in underlying markets were accompanied by an emerging theme of biofuel supply uncertainty. Participants reported that European suppliers may look to steer away from Chinese-origin biodiesel as the EU's anti-dumping investigation continues, with a conclusion by early 2025 at the latest. This was compounded by chronic disruption in the Red Sea, historically the most utilised route on the east-west voyage, leading to traffic redirecting via the Cape of Good Hope and a subsequent increase in freight costs.

The potential shift in supply routes can be supported by changes in product flows. Some 19,000t of Fame has been exported from China with a marked destination in Europe in March so far, an 80pc drop from February's 106,000t — according to Kpler data. This month's exports are just 10pc of the 184,000t exported from China to Europe in March last year, according to Kpler. Declining volumes from China were accompanied by an increase in Fame volumes exported from northwest Europe intra-continental to 409,000t in March from 364,000t a month prior. GTT data pointed to a 47pc decline in Chinese biodiesel exports in January-February, coinciding with an increase in Chinese exports of used cooking oil (UCO) with northwest Europe the main destination.

Uncertainty in the supply import pool coincided with raised concerns around the presence of "unestablished" biodiesel feedstocks in bunker fuels. A report from Lloyd's Register fuel oil bunkering analysis and advisory service (FOBAS) highlighted a correlation between engine fuel pump and injector related damage in vessels and the presence of cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) in marine fuels utilised by the vessels. CNSL is one of the cheaper advanced feedstocks and can be eligible for Dutch renewable tickets (HBE-G) — which can help make marine biodiesel blends more appealing and price competitive to buyers, as well as reduce production costs. But participants noted that during tests conducted by shipowners to assess the compatibility of CNSL with marine engines, technical and specification limitations emerged because of potentially high acidity and metal contents. This prompted shipowners and bunker suppliers to avoid fuels that contain CNSL, which may further constrict the pool of biodiesel supply that can be integrated into the maritime sector.

Argus assessed the price of B30 Ucome dob ARA, a blend comprising 30pc Ucome and 70pc VLSFO, at $839.17/t during 14-26 March — an increase of just under $22/t from the 1-13 March average. B30 Advanced Fame 0°C CFPP dob ARA range averaged just over $785/t during 14-26 March, higher by $16.19/t from the two weeks prior. B100 Advanced Fame 0 levels rose by $16.62/t to $1,159.79/t in the second half of March. B24 dob Algeciras-Gibraltar firmed to $812.61/t in 14-26 March, an increase of $19.50/t from prices on 1-13 March.

By Hussein Al-Khalisy