Safra 2024-25 deve produzir 32 milhões de m³ de etanol
A produção de etanol total para a temporada de 2024-25 deve somar 32 milhões de m³, em comparação com 33 milhões de m³ em 2023-24, com o mercado projetando uma safra de "volta à normalidade", segundo levantamento feito pela Argus com distribuidoras, corretoras e consultorias de biocombustíveis.
O biocombustível à base de cana-de-açúcar deve corresponder por 24 milhões de m³ deste total, conforme os participantes de mercado. A expectativa de moagem para o ciclo iniciado na semana passada gira em torno de 590 milhões de t a 620 milhões de t, abaixo do recorde de mais de 650 milhões de t apurado em 2023-24.
Já a produção de etanol de milho está estimada entre 7,7 milhões de m³ e 8 milhões de m³, em meio aos investimentos crescentes no setor. Isso significaria uma participação de 24pc do biocombustível produzido a partir do milho na produção nacional, depois de marcar, aproximadamente, 18pc em 2023-24, com 5,9 milhões de m³ até 15 de março, reportou a União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica).
A construção de 10 novas usinas que processam o biocombustível do grão está programada para os próximos dois anos, informou a consultoria SCA Brasil.
A maior oferta de etanol de milho ajuda a suprir a demanda pelo biocombustível e alivia o cenário de sucroalcooleiras direcionando mais cana para o açúcar. O mix mais açucareiro das usinas deve prosseguir nesta safra frente à continuidade de preços atrativos para o açúcar no mercado internacional. Em 2023-24, o Brasil embarcou cerca de 35 milhões de t do produto, conforme dados da Unica.
Grandes produtores da commodity, como Índia e Tailândia, vêm apresentando exportações abaixo do esperado, o que abre espaço para a mercadoria do Brasil – que é o maior exportador de açúcar do mundo. Além disso, o governo indiano está realizando políticas de incentivo à produção e ao uso de etanol, em detrimento do adoçante.
No âmbito do biocombustível, as usinas devem direcionar o processamento para o hidratado, considerando uma crescente demanda projetada para o período. Estima-se que, aproximadamente, 20,4 milhões de m³ sejam convertidos em E100 e 11,7 milhões de m³, em anidro.
A paridade de preços em todo o país vem se mantendo favorável para o etanol ante a gasolina na bomba. Na semana passada, a relação ficou, em média, em 68pc, segundo a Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Em São Paulo, marcou 62pc. A paridade em 70pc ou menos em relação ao combustível fóssil torna o etanol competitivo e costuma atrair a atenção dos motoristas na hora de abastecer.
Em abril, o consumo de hidratado pode atingir até 2 milhões de m³, disseram fontes à Argus. Com a paridade favorável e a busca por etanol em alta, participantes de mercado não descartam que produtores do biocombustível possam elevar seus preços para equilibrar oferta e procura em meados do ano.
Participantes também esperam que a temporada 2024-25 seja um retorno ao que se considera uma safra normal, com atividades de moagem de abril a novembro. A perspectiva segue duas safras incomuns recentes: 2021-22, com volumes baixos devido às condições climáticas adversas, e a anterior, com recorde histórico.
Para os estoques, o ciclo 2023-24 terminou com dificuldades de acesso ao etanol em alguns estados do Centro-Sul na segunda quinzena de março. Com a procura aquecida e a disponibilidade de estoques concentrada em poucas usinas, participantes observaram filas de caminhões nas unidades.
"Tem muito etanol guardado, mas em poucas usinas, não tem velocidade de atender todo mundo na pressa que cada um tem", disse uma fonte à Argus. Na primeira quinzena de março, o Centro-Sul estava com 4 milhões de m³ de produto estocado, queda de 22pc em relação ao período anterior e alta de 29pc na base anual, de acordo com o Ministério da Agricultura.
A safra 2023-24 deve terminar com estoques acima de 30 dias, contou uma distribuidora à Argus. Em abril, espera-se que, com todas as usinas de cana-de-açúcar operando, os problemas com estas retiradas sejam sanados.
A adoção, pelos produtores e empresas de trading, de uma estratégia de "carry" – estocagem de combustíveis comprados no mercado à vista para revenda futura – pode ocorrer em setembro, a depender da demanda, disse uma distribuidora.
Por Laura Guedes
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