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Safra 2024-25 deve produzir 32 milhões de m³ de etanol

  • : Agriculture, Biofuels
  • 24/04/11

A produção de etanol total para a temporada de 2024-25 deve somar 32 milhões de m³, em comparação com 33 milhões de m³ em 2023-24, com o mercado projetando uma safra de "volta à normalidade", segundo levantamento feito pela Argus com distribuidoras, corretoras e consultorias de biocombustíveis.

O biocombustível à base de cana-de-açúcar deve corresponder por 24 milhões de m³ deste total, conforme os participantes de mercado. A expectativa de moagem para o ciclo iniciado na semana passada gira em torno de 590 milhões de t a 620 milhões de t, abaixo do recorde de mais de 650 milhões de t apurado em 2023-24.

Já a produção de etanol de milho está estimada entre 7,7 milhões de m³ e 8 milhões de m³, em meio aos investimentos crescentes no setor. Isso significaria uma participação de 24pc do biocombustível produzido a partir do milho na produção nacional, depois de marcar, aproximadamente, 18pc em 2023-24, com 5,9 milhões de m³ até 15 de março, reportou a União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica).

A construção de 10 novas usinas que processam o biocombustível do grão está programada para os próximos dois anos, informou a consultoria SCA Brasil.

A maior oferta de etanol de milho ajuda a suprir a demanda pelo biocombustível e alivia o cenário de sucroalcooleiras direcionando mais cana para o açúcar. O mix mais açucareiro das usinas deve prosseguir nesta safra frente à continuidade de preços atrativos para o açúcar no mercado internacional. Em 2023-24, o Brasil embarcou cerca de 35 milhões de t do produto, conforme dados da Unica.

Grandes produtores da commodity, como Índia e Tailândia, vêm apresentando exportações abaixo do esperado, o que abre espaço para a mercadoria do Brasil – que é o maior exportador de açúcar do mundo. Além disso, o governo indiano está realizando políticas de incentivo à produção e ao uso de etanol, em detrimento do adoçante.

No âmbito do biocombustível, as usinas devem direcionar o processamento para o hidratado, considerando uma crescente demanda projetada para o período. Estima-se que, aproximadamente, 20,4 milhões de m³ sejam convertidos em E100 e 11,7 milhões de m³, em anidro.

A paridade de preços em todo o país vem se mantendo favorável para o etanol ante a gasolina na bomba. Na semana passada, a relação ficou, em média, em 68pc, segundo a Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Em São Paulo, marcou 62pc. A paridade em 70pc ou menos em relação ao combustível fóssil torna o etanol competitivo e costuma atrair a atenção dos motoristas na hora de abastecer.

Em abril, o consumo de hidratado pode atingir até 2 milhões de m³, disseram fontes à Argus. Com a paridade favorável e a busca por etanol em alta, participantes de mercado não descartam que produtores do biocombustível possam elevar seus preços para equilibrar oferta e procura em meados do ano.

Participantes também esperam que a temporada 2024-25 seja um retorno ao que se considera uma safra normal, com atividades de moagem de abril a novembro. A perspectiva segue duas safras incomuns recentes: 2021-22, com volumes baixos devido às condições climáticas adversas, e a anterior, com recorde histórico.

Para os estoques, o ciclo 2023-24 terminou com dificuldades de acesso ao etanol em alguns estados do Centro-Sul na segunda quinzena de março. Com a procura aquecida e a disponibilidade de estoques concentrada em poucas usinas, participantes observaram filas de caminhões nas unidades.

"Tem muito etanol guardado, mas em poucas usinas, não tem velocidade de atender todo mundo na pressa que cada um tem", disse uma fonte à Argus. Na primeira quinzena de março, o Centro-Sul estava com 4 milhões de m³ de produto estocado, queda de 22pc em relação ao período anterior e alta de 29pc na base anual, de acordo com o Ministério da Agricultura.

A safra 2023-24 deve terminar com estoques acima de 30 dias, contou uma distribuidora à Argus. Em abril, espera-se que, com todas as usinas de cana-de-açúcar operando, os problemas com estas retiradas sejam sanados.

A adoção, pelos produtores e empresas de trading, de uma estratégia de "carry" – estocagem de combustíveis comprados no mercado à vista para revenda futura – pode ocorrer em setembro, a depender da demanda, disse uma distribuidora.

Por Laura Guedes


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25/02/07

Crude Summit: P66 eyes US northeast renewables: Update

Crude Summit: P66 eyes US northeast renewables: Update

Adds info on SAF, other details. Houston, 7 February (Argus) — US refiner Philips 66 is weighing producing renewable fuels in the northeastern US if more states adopt low carbon fuel standards. The company is considering producing renewables at its 258,500 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, if state mandates are approved and implemented, vice president of renewables Suresh Vaidyanathan said on the sidelines of the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, on Friday. The renewables could be processed along with traditional fuels at the refinery. Bayway is the largest refinery on the US Atlantic coast. Phillips 66 could possibly produce renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at the refinery, depending on the specifics of the state laws, Vaidyanathan said. The company said it is "constantly evaluating all of our assets for lower carbon opportunities." New Jersey senators last year proposed legislation to establish what could be the first US east coast clean fuels mandate. In New York, bills to establish a clean fuel standard now count the majority of the state assembly and senate as co-sponsors. But similar proposals have stalled in prior years, in part because some progressive lawmakers worry about potentially boosting biofuels at the expense of electrification. New York state agencies are separately studying the potential impacts of a "clean transportation standard" but have given no indication of when they could release their findings. Phillips 66's Rodeo renewables plant in California reported throughputs of 42,000 b/d in the fourth quarter of 2024 after beginning full operations last year. Phillips 66 said today it is producing SAF at the Rodeo refinery. United Airlines announced in December that it agreed to buy SAF from Phillips 66's Rodeo facility as soon as the product came online. Phillips 66's renewable fuels business logged a $28mn profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 driven by higher margins at the Rodeo complex and stronger international results. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ethanol prices up on uncertainty, low margins in Feb


25/02/06
25/02/06

Ethanol prices up on uncertainty, low margins in Feb

London, 6 February (Argus) — Spot ethanol prices in northwest Europe firmed to a six-month high at the start of February after several months of remaining largely steady. The minimum 64pc greenhouse gas (GHG) savings ethanol spot price reached €700/m³ on 4 February, its highest since 2 August 2024. Despite this, participants are reporting ample supply in the region, sufficient to meet current demand. The gains are largely attributed to a closed arbitrage with the US, higher production costs and ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs. Some market participants believe the price rise in the ARA region is partially driven by higher ethanol prices in the US, which have been supported by rising corn prices . These participants said European prices may have tracked US price gains given the closed arbitrage with the country, with expectations that the arbitrage between the regions will reopen as a result of higher ethanol prices in ARA. Looking ahead, some market participants predict that ethanol imports will be reduced in the second quarter, which has caused the ethanol forward curve to shift into contango, with prices peaking at €711/m³ for the second quarter on 5 February. Trump tariffs turmoil Participants said prices are also being supported by uncertainty surrounding US president Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from the EU. The European Commission said this week it will respond "firmly" should Trump "unfairly or arbitrarily" impose tariffs on EU goods. Trump made a similar complaint about the UK, but said he thinks "that one can be worked out". Retaliatory tariffs from the EU could affect ethanol flows, as the EU is a net importer of fuel ethanol. It imported almost 69,000t of undenatured ethanol — usually used for road fuel blending in most EU member states — from the US in January-November 2024, according to provisional EU customs data. The UK imported almost 600,000t of ethanol during the same period. The UK can leverage favourable arbitrage opportunities to import ethanol from the US and redirect it to the EU. Producers face higher costs Argus calculations show ethanol production margins for corn and wheat at €168.69/m³ and at €146.71/m³ on 5 February, down from €223.56/m³ and €205.33/m³ a year ago. Variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants are not included in these calculations. Market participants said producers continue to adjust to a poor 2024-25 harvest season in Eastern Europe, caused by unfavourable weather conditions in Ukraine and France. Higher feedstock costs have contributed to higher ethanol prices, although the production margins are still tighter than last year. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. Rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This is likely to weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. More recently, European market participants said a late-winter cold snap may affect winter crops in Ukraine, and if so, strain feedstock supplies and push ethanol production costs up further. It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics GHG emission values, the so called Nuts 2 values. Biofuel producer Archer Daniels Midland expects ethanol profit margins to narrow this year, after posting wider margins in the fourth quarter. The company expects ethanol margins to drop to break-even in the first quarter on higher industry run rates, even as robust demand for exports from the US supports improved volumes, it said. ADM is one of the largest exporters of ethanol to Europe, according to those in the market. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU SAF mandate resets US market as credits uncertain


25/02/06
25/02/06

EU SAF mandate resets US market as credits uncertain

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Looming questions over federal tax credits, supply concerns, and the future of trade flows are causing concerns for US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market participants, while buyers address needs in Europe given newly introduced mandates. The domestic SAF market in the US is spurred by incentives in the form of tax credits and subsidies. This "carrot instead of stick" method is meant to bridge the gap between the high cost of investment and production of SAF, making it feasible for airlines to consume and utilize the carbon-abating abilities of the low carbon fuel. The recent expiration of the 40B blenders tax credit has made its mark on the biofuels landscape, eating into the margins of products made with more carbon-intensive feedstocks and altering trade flows on a global level. With importers to the US west coast unable to capitalize on the federally backed incentive, producers like Neste who made up more than half of the SAF market in the US in 2024 direct their Singapore-based volumes elsewhere. US west coast delivered prices during the fourth quarter of 2025 ranged from $4.80/USG to $5.98/USG, reflective of volatility in the conventional jet basis as well as inconsistent supply available at major points of uplift. Prices in the third quarter of 2024 ranged from $4.20/USG to $5.50/USG given greater anticipation of sufficient supply later in the year. Coupled with limited domestic production that decreased from 16.5mn USG in the third quarter to 6.6mn USG in the fourth quarter, the supply of SAF in the US available on a spot basis has dwindled. EU-wide SAF mandates kicked in at 2pc this year, rising to 6pc by 2030. But it is not until 2035 when the obligation hikes up to 20pc — with a 5pc sub-mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin — that the region will tip into a short position. The UK is on a similar demand trajectory, going from 2pc this year to 10pc by 2030 and 15pc by 2035, while aiming for a 52pc cap on the SAF total being Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acid-based. Combined, this could result in Europe's supply/demand balance going from a 200,000 t/yr surplus in 2030 to a -9.1mn t deficit by 2035, according to Argus Consulting estimates. Given the newly introduced European SAF mandate, air carriers that operate in both regions look to secure volumes at major points of uplift around western Europe. Given the lower supply in the US and fluctuating prices given those changes in supply on the west coast, market activity maintains fixed on the other side of the Atlantic. By Matthew Cope and Amandeep Parmar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO mulls higher biofuel blend cargoes on Type I ships


25/02/05
25/02/05

IMO mulls higher biofuel blend cargoes on Type I ships

Singapore, 5 February (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is reviewing a proposal on the delivery of biofuel blends of up to 30pc on Type I barges, and is expected to approve this soon, according to several key maritime assessors and classification societies. The proposal, once approved by IMO, is expected to increase B30 bunkering globally as it would allow for the sale of B30 using the current available fleet of IMO Type I oil barges at any port, likely leading to a higher uptake of biofuel blends. B30 is a blend of 70pc very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) or high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with 30pc used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome). The draft circular on the carriage of blends of biofuels and MARPOL Annex I cargoes by conventional bunker ships was accepted by IMO's sub-committee on pollution prevention and response (PPR) during its 12th session from 27-31 January. The draft is expected to be approved at the next Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 83 meeting to be held from 7-11 April. Details of the 12th PPR meeting had not been published on IMO's website at the time of writing. The International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) is an agreement that covers the prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships. Annex I covers pollution by oil and oil products carried or operationally used by ships. Type I ships that deliver conventional bunker fuels can currently carry up to 25pc of biofuels under MARPOL Annex I, which has resulted in the adoption of the B24 blend in key ports across Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean region in the past few years. B24 consists of 24pc Ucome blended with 76pc fuel oil, which could be either VLSFO or HSFO. IMO has previously stated that Type II chemical tankers should be used for transporting biofuel blends with concentrations higher than 25pc. Shipowners have hence been waiting for the delivery of more Type II tankers, which are currently in limited supply at many ports. Market participants at the key port of Singapore are awaiting the impact of the decision in April. Enquiries for B30 have been surfacing in the past couple of months and refiners, traders, and shipowners are waiting for the outcome from MEPC 83, as well as subsequent decisions by the Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) of Singapore on how this will be implemented in the country, said several Singapore-based market participants. "[We] need to see if MPA agrees to follow IMO," said a key Singapore-based trader. MPA has not responded to a request for comment. The current push for higher biofuel blends comes as shipowners prepare to meet stricter compliance requirements set by IMO's Carbon Intensity Index and EU-led Emissions Trading Scheme and FuelEU Maritime. Demand for alternative marine fuels, especially biofuel blends and LNG, is expected to rise as shipowners look at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across their fleets. By Mahua Chakravarty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian beef exports hit record high in January


25/02/05
25/02/05

Australian beef exports hit record high in January

Dalby, 5 February (Argus) — Australian beef exports hit a record high in January, with volumes of chilled and frozen beef surpassing the previous high set in January 2020, the Australian Department of Agriculture said. Beef exports reached 81,049t in January 2025, a rise from 75,585t in January 2024 and slightly more than the previous high of 79,221t exported in January 2020. This comes on the back of strong exports in December 2024. Processors typically engage in capacity rebuilding in January after the Christmas holiday break for abattoir staff. Throughput is typically weighed down by weaker cattle availability across northern Australia over the monsoon season in November-April. But exports in January 2025 remained strong despite the challenges, with processing throughput reaching a high of 140,908 heads in the week to 24 January. Exporters took advantage of robust global prices and the availability of cattle because of dry conditions in southern Australia and a late wet season across Queensland and the Northern Territory. The majority of exports in January were sent to the US, accounting for 24,685t or 30pc of total global exports. This is a rise from the 20,308t the US imported in January 2024. Imports to the west coast ports of the US more than doubled compared with a year earlier, reaching 7,112t. Demand from the US was strong, particularly the demand for lean trim, as a result of a domestic production shortage caused by a declining cattle herd. This has pushed up prices for Australian lean trim, with prices for 85CL nearing A$9.50/kg and Bull 95CL surpassing A$10.50/kg, Argus data show. Demand and prices will likely remain steady throughout 2025 because the US cattle herd has yet to begin rebuilding, market participants said. Exports of chilled and frozen beef to Japan and Korea have slightly decreased on the year in January to 15,806t and 10,596t respectively, down by less than 10pc from a year earlier. Higher prices for fatty trim, coupled with weaker local economies, have weighed on Asian demand for Australian beef. But imports to China rose in January 2025 compared with a year earlier, with 15,315t shipped for the month after active buying in December. Exports to other countries including the EU, Canada, Thailand and Dubai also increased in January 2025 compared with a year earlier, on the back of record high volumes of beef production in Australia in 2024. By Amy Phillips Australian beef exports (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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