Safra 2024-25 deve produzir 32 milhões de m³ de etanol

  • : Agriculture, Biofuels
  • 24/04/11

A produção de etanol total para a temporada de 2024-25 deve somar 32 milhões de m³, em comparação com 33 milhões de m³ em 2023-24, com o mercado projetando uma safra de "volta à normalidade", segundo levantamento feito pela Argus com distribuidoras, corretoras e consultorias de biocombustíveis.

O biocombustível à base de cana-de-açúcar deve corresponder por 24 milhões de m³ deste total, conforme os participantes de mercado. A expectativa de moagem para o ciclo iniciado na semana passada gira em torno de 590 milhões de t a 620 milhões de t, abaixo do recorde de mais de 650 milhões de t apurado em 2023-24.

Já a produção de etanol de milho está estimada entre 7,7 milhões de m³ e 8 milhões de m³, em meio aos investimentos crescentes no setor. Isso significaria uma participação de 24pc do biocombustível produzido a partir do milho na produção nacional, depois de marcar, aproximadamente, 18pc em 2023-24, com 5,9 milhões de m³ até 15 de março, reportou a União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica).

A construção de 10 novas usinas que processam o biocombustível do grão está programada para os próximos dois anos, informou a consultoria SCA Brasil.

A maior oferta de etanol de milho ajuda a suprir a demanda pelo biocombustível e alivia o cenário de sucroalcooleiras direcionando mais cana para o açúcar. O mix mais açucareiro das usinas deve prosseguir nesta safra frente à continuidade de preços atrativos para o açúcar no mercado internacional. Em 2023-24, o Brasil embarcou cerca de 35 milhões de t do produto, conforme dados da Unica.

Grandes produtores da commodity, como Índia e Tailândia, vêm apresentando exportações abaixo do esperado, o que abre espaço para a mercadoria do Brasil – que é o maior exportador de açúcar do mundo. Além disso, o governo indiano está realizando políticas de incentivo à produção e ao uso de etanol, em detrimento do adoçante.

No âmbito do biocombustível, as usinas devem direcionar o processamento para o hidratado, considerando uma crescente demanda projetada para o período. Estima-se que, aproximadamente, 20,4 milhões de m³ sejam convertidos em E100 e 11,7 milhões de m³, em anidro.

A paridade de preços em todo o país vem se mantendo favorável para o etanol ante a gasolina na bomba. Na semana passada, a relação ficou, em média, em 68pc, segundo a Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Em São Paulo, marcou 62pc. A paridade em 70pc ou menos em relação ao combustível fóssil torna o etanol competitivo e costuma atrair a atenção dos motoristas na hora de abastecer.

Em abril, o consumo de hidratado pode atingir até 2 milhões de m³, disseram fontes à Argus. Com a paridade favorável e a busca por etanol em alta, participantes de mercado não descartam que produtores do biocombustível possam elevar seus preços para equilibrar oferta e procura em meados do ano.

Participantes também esperam que a temporada 2024-25 seja um retorno ao que se considera uma safra normal, com atividades de moagem de abril a novembro. A perspectiva segue duas safras incomuns recentes: 2021-22, com volumes baixos devido às condições climáticas adversas, e a anterior, com recorde histórico.

Para os estoques, o ciclo 2023-24 terminou com dificuldades de acesso ao etanol em alguns estados do Centro-Sul na segunda quinzena de março. Com a procura aquecida e a disponibilidade de estoques concentrada em poucas usinas, participantes observaram filas de caminhões nas unidades.

"Tem muito etanol guardado, mas em poucas usinas, não tem velocidade de atender todo mundo na pressa que cada um tem", disse uma fonte à Argus. Na primeira quinzena de março, o Centro-Sul estava com 4 milhões de m³ de produto estocado, queda de 22pc em relação ao período anterior e alta de 29pc na base anual, de acordo com o Ministério da Agricultura.

A safra 2023-24 deve terminar com estoques acima de 30 dias, contou uma distribuidora à Argus. Em abril, espera-se que, com todas as usinas de cana-de-açúcar operando, os problemas com estas retiradas sejam sanados.

A adoção, pelos produtores e empresas de trading, de uma estratégia de "carry" – estocagem de combustíveis comprados no mercado à vista para revenda futura – pode ocorrer em setembro, a depender da demanda, disse uma distribuidora.

Por Laura Guedes


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

24/06/17

Porto Alegre, Brazil partially reopens post-flood

Porto Alegre, Brazil partially reopens post-flood

Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — The Porto Alegre port, in Brazil's flood-hit southern Rio Grande do Sul state, partially resumed operations last week while other area ports continue to recover. Activities had been suspended at Porto Alegre since 2 May, following the unprecedented floods that hit the state in late April and May, but there was a partial reopening on 14 June. Porto Alegre is still carrying out cleaning and maintenance, and port authority Portos RS is still analyzing damage to infrastructure. The first operation will take place at the POA02 terminal, leased by logistic firm Serra Morena. The 60,456 dwt bulk carrier Nord Mississipi will be unloading inputs for fertilizer production. Porto Alegre is one of three ports in Rio Grande do Sul, along with Pelotas and Rio Grande. Pelotas was also hit by the floods but resumed operations on 21 May. The port of Rio Grande did not suspend operations but has had to reduce the draft of ships allowed in to port because of debris and sediment left by the flooding. The draft at the Bunge, Bianchini and Termasa/Tergrasa terminals was reduced to 12.8 meters (42ft) on 21 May and is now 11.9m. Rio Grande do Sul is once again on alert because of the forecast of new rains in the state over the next few days. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rains return to Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state


24/06/17
24/06/17

Rains return to Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state

Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — Rainfall returned to Brazil's flood-hit Rio Grande do Sul state over the weekend and is likely to remain until Wednesday, according to meteorological firm Climatempo. Downpours started in late April brought havoc to the state, flooding rivers and lakes and hampering several logistics points. Several state and national highways are still damaged and the state's main airport is likely to remain closed until the end of the year. The weather had eased in the last few weeks, with lake and river levels dropping below flood levels since at least 9 June. But two new cold fronts brought rains to the state once again on 15 June, Climatempo said. Rains are likely to reach an accumulated 200-300mm (7.9-11.8in) from 15-19 June in the state's central-northern and northwestern regions, Climatempo said. Other areas will receive 80-150mm in the same span. Showers in the central-northern region of the state hit 50-60mm on 16 June alone, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Cai and Jacui rivers have reached above-flood levels once again, according to the state's civil defense. The Taquari River's levels are "above caution quotas," reaching 17m (55.7ft). Levels need to be below 5m to be considered normal. Civil defense authorities have also issued a flood warning for those that live close to the Sinos River, asking them to evacuate risky areas. Rio Grande do Sul is one of Brazil's main agricultural states. The US Department of Agriculture has cut the state's 2023-24 soybean production estimate because of the floods. The extreme weather has left at least 176 dead and over 422,000 people displaced, according to the civil defense's latest report published on 14 June. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Phillips 66 to balance fossil and renewable fuels


24/06/14
24/06/14

Q&A: Phillips 66 to balance fossil and renewable fuels

Houston, 14 June (Argus) — With Phillips 66's Rodeo, California, refinery expected to ramp up to over 50,000 b/d of renewable fuels production by the end of this quarter, all eyes are on the refiner for what is next. Zhanna Golodryga , executive vice president of emerging energy and sustainability for Phillips 66, talked to Argus at the refiner's Houston headquarters about how the company looks at investments, its focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and why Texas might be the Silicon Valley of the energy transition. The conversation has been edited for clarity and length. When Rodeo reaches full capacity, it will represent about 3pc of your overall output. What will your fleet look like longer-term and what will be the renewables/petroleum split? Not all the refineries in our portfolio are created equal, and when we look at them what I call them is "lower-carbon energy hubs". Not low, lower, because it's going to be a combination of everything. We're looking at the assets we have in the portfolio and what we can do to help bring in lower carbon solutions and what can we build out. Our focus is going to continue to be SAF. We understand the limitations of feedstocks and we have a very strong commercial organization that is now working on providing feedstocks just for Rodeo. But we're also thinking about what we can do to bring in different feedstocks. Energy transition opportunities aren't going to replace our traditional fossil fuel refining. It's an "and", not an "or". You've highlighted a future focus on SAF. Does that mean a move away from renewable diesel (RD)? I think we have flexibility to do both and it will be market driven going forward. We have to look at demand but there is demand for SAF globally, not just in the US. Demand for gasoline is not as strong as demand for diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. That is what our focus is and then we want to diversify the feedstock. What is your outlook for RD? I think RD is here for quite some time. It's hard to predict what's going to happen by 2050 but I think we will have the demand. It's going to take a long time to electrify all future transportation. I think we have a much better opportunity for now to focus on what we're really good at. That's fuels, renewable fuels. You have faced activist investor pressure calling for Phillips 66 to focus on its core refining business. How do investors feel about the Rodeo conversion and your future plans? We have taken a pragmatic approach to the energy transition. We have criteria that we follow prior to taking any projects over the line, specifically the energy transition type projects. They must meet five key prerequisites: the right returns, the right technology that has been proven at scale, the right regulatory environment, preferably involve a partnership and be done at the right time. We have to prove with Rodeo that this is, as I call it, our license to continue to grow the business. This is our license to operate additional energy transition business. This one is going to be done extremely well. What are the policy tailwinds and headwinds to your renewables investments? When we look at our opportunities in our energy transition portfolio, we are building our economic model for them to produce the right returns without any incentives. That is our starting point. On the other hand, the IRA [US Inflation Reduction Act] has been a bipartisan initiative and we think it's going to stand for the greater good of the planet. We have to think globally, as we have the Humber refinery in the UK. It's interesting for us to see what's possible in the US with the IRA incentives, versus more of a stick in Europe. But the challenge for us is permitting and timing. We probably could have brought Rodeo online sooner if we didn't have to wait for some permits. Our headquarters are in Texas and Texas is the "energy transition Silicon Valley". I'm repeating someone's words and those are the words of Bill Gates. But I believe that. We're perfectly positioned on the Gulf coast to go to the next phase and build something here. You've mentioned Phillips 66's 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas, as a low carbon energy hub. Does that mean it is a candidate for renewable fuel conversion or co-processing? It could be an option, maybe not at Sweeny, but in the Gulf coast, maybe Lake Charles. It's driven by our hardware, just like what we've done at Rodeo. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Low-CO2 biofuel feedstock imports to rise: USDA


24/06/13
24/06/13

Low-CO2 biofuel feedstock imports to rise: USDA

New York, 13 June (Argus) — A new US tax credit kicking off next year that is more generous for fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions will likely spur more imports of low-carbon feedstocks, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report this week. A raft of government incentives, including the federal renewable fuel standard and low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) in states like California, has already spurred a boom in renewable diesel production, upping demand for feedstocks that can be used to make the fuel. The US was a net soybean oil importer for the first time ever in 2023 because of strong demand from domestic refineries, and the value of US imports of animal fats and vegetable oils more than doubled from 2020 to 2023 according to the report. That trend could become even more pronounced next year as the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z tax credit, which offers up to $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel and up to $1/USG for other fuels like renewable diesel, comes into force. The credit can only be claimed for fuel produced in the US, likely cutting biofuel imports and sending more feedstocks that would have been refined abroad to the US instead, the report says. The 45Z credit will also be more generous to fuels with lower carbon intensity, upping demand for waste feedstocks like used cooking oil that already fetch greater discounts in LCFS programs. Fast-rising imports of China-origin used cooking oil have already frustrated some agricultural groups, which lose out if there are more ample supplies of waste feedstocks. The report says that while soybean oil was the "crucial feedstock" allowing for the recent growth in US renewable diesel, its share of the feedstock mix has been trending downwards because of competition from lower-carbon feedstocks and lower-cost canola oil from Canada. While soybean oil exports have plunged because of the renewable diesel boom, they could recover slightly if refineries increasingly turning to waste feedstocks cuts into US soybean oil's current premium over global vegetable oils. The report adds that soybean oil's role in renewable diesel production is also at risk from rising supplies of soybean meal, which is produced alongside oil at crush plants and where the global demand picture is less clear. "Based on global demand for soybean meal, soybean oil cannot continue to fuel renewable diesel production growth at current rates during the next few years without major changes to global soybean meal demand, shifts in exporter market shares, or lower supplies in other exporting countries," the report says. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Neste supplies SAF to Emirates at Changi airport


24/06/13
24/06/13

Neste supplies SAF to Emirates at Changi airport

Singapore, 13 June (Argus) — Dubai-owned airline Emirates has started using blended sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supplied by Finnish biofuels producer Neste on flights departing from Changi airport from Neste's Singapore refinery. The two companies had signed a partnership in October 2023 for 3mn USG (8,600t) of blended SAF in 2024 and 2025, with Neste supplying over 6,000t of blended SAF to Emirates at Amsterdam's Schiphol airport this year. Neste has since supplied more than 2,600t of blended SAF into Changi's fuelling system over the past few weeks, with Emirates' deputy president and chief operating officer Adel Al Redha indicating a move towards "longer term agreements to help scale up a steady supply of SAF for operations". Emirates said it is the first international visiting airline using SAF supplied at Changi from Neste's Singapore refinery. By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more