Spain-Portugal congestion income up by 554pc in March
The spread between the Spanish and Portuguese spot index prices has widened in the first quarter of 2024, with Portugal clearing at the lowest price in Europe in March, Iberian power exchange Omie reported.
Spanish and Portuguese day-ahead market prices have cleared at larger spreads between them compared with the first quarter of 2023, Omie data show. Congestion income between the two at times of decoupling more than doubled on the year in January, but fell in February. March registered the largest decoupling, supporting congestion income to 554pc compared with February, and was up by 172pc from March 2023.
Negotiated output in the intra-day market auctions increased by 19.6pc on the month, and rose by 10pc from March last year. But lower prices pushed economic volume down by 43pc on the month, and by almost 76pc on the year.
The volume of negotiated power in the day-ahead market in the first quarter of 2024 was up by 5.49TWh from the same period in 2023. March accounted for the largest increase, rising to 21.52TWh from 19.39TWh in March 2023.
1Q24 spot index price down
Spot index prices rose by €4.64/MWh on the year in January, but fell during the rest of the first quarter.
February cleared at an average discount to the previous year of €93.92/MWh, and March of €70.02/MWh. Combined the first quarter of 2024 has cleared below half of the same period in 2023.
Portugal cleared at the lowest average price among European day-ahead market indexes in March, followed by Spain at a €1.03/MWh premium.
The Spanish spot has cleared at an average of €5.82/MWh so far in April, sharply below the €73.77/MWh it cleared at in April 2023. This is also below expectations in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, as the April contract expired at €23.55/MWh at the end of March. The Spanish spot also cleared below zero for the first time.
Gas-fired output down, hydropower generation up
CCGT generation has averaged 2.6GW in the first quarter of 2024, down from 4GW in the same quarter last year.
Average nuclear output also fell by 800MW to 6GW compared with the same period. And the trend has continued so far in April, with nuclear generation averaging 4.9GW, down from 6.3GW in April 2023. Solar photovoltaic (PV) output increased by around 240MW, while wind generation remained similar to the previous year's levels. Operational wind capacity increased to 30.29GW from 30.18GW over the quarter, and PV to 25.22GW from 25.16GW.
Hefty rainfall over the first quarter has supported an increase of hydropower output by 1.5GW. And the trend of higher hydropower generation has carried on so far in April, supported by stocks at around 75pc, the highest in a decade. Hydropower has averaged 6.2GW so far in April from 2.36GW in the same month in 2023. But wind generation is down by around 500MW compared with the same period last year.
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Australia issues offshore wind feasibility licences
Australia issues offshore wind feasibility licences
Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — The Australian federal government has issued the first feasibility licences for offshore wind projects in the country following a competitive process, for up to 12GW of capacity off the coast of Gippsland in the southern state of Victoria and a potential further 13GW in the next stage. Six projects have received approval to explore the feasibility of offshore wind farms in the Bass Strait off Gippsland's coast, which was the first offshore wind zone declared in Australia at the end of 2022. Successful applicants include Danish investment firm Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), Danish utility Orsted, Australian utility AGL Energy, European utilities EDP Renewables and Engie and Japanese utility Jera. The government also intends to grant another six licences, subject to consultation with First Nations groups. The 12 projects could have a potential combined capacity of around 25GW, the government said ( see table ). Projects that prove feasible will be able to apply for commercial licences and move to the construction phase if they secure financing, with the most advanced wind farms expected to start generating power in the early 2030s. CIP secured site exclusivity to develop two projects with a combined 4.4GW through a newly launched platform company Southerly Ten. The projects comprise the 2.2GW Star of the South, which claims to be the most advanced offshore wind project in Australia , along with the early stage 2.2GW Kut-Wut Brataualung. Southerly Ten is also developing the Destiny Wind project in Australia's second declared offshore wind zone off the Hunter region in New South Wales. Orsted was given one licence for a 2.8GW project and might receive another one for a 2GW wind farm. It said it will proceed with site investigations, environmental assessments and supply chain development, with a view to bid in future auctions planned by the Victorian government, which are expected to start in late 2025. Victoria is targeting 2GW of offshore wind capacity by 2032 and 9GW by 2040. "Subject to the above steps and a final investment decision, the projects are expected to be completed in phases from the early 2030s, with the aim to maximise dual site synergies through shared resources and economies of scale," Orsted said. The 2.5GW Gippsland Skies offshore wind project, belongs to a consortium made of Irish renewables firm Mainstream Renewable Power with 35pc, UK-based firm Reventus Power 35pc, AGL Energy 20pc and Australian developer Direct Infrastructure 10pc. The first phase of the project is expected to be operational in 2032, according to the consortium. The list of six projects already granted feasibility licences also include High Sea Wind, a proposed 1.28GW wind farm developed by EDP Renewables' and Engie's 50:50 joint venture Ocean Winds, along with Blue Mackerel North, a 1GW development by Japanese utility Jera Nex's subsidiary Parkwind. Parkwind is also developing another offshore wind project in Australia, with Australian utility Alinta Energy, the 1GW Spinifex in the Southern Ocean off Victoria, which was declared Australia's third wind zone in March. The other projects that might receive licences are being developed by companies such as Spanish utility Iberdrola, Spanish developer Bluefloat Energy, Australian firm Macquarie's wind developer Corio Generation, German utility RWE and a joint venture between Australia's Origin Energy and UK-based developer RES Group. By Juan Weik Australian offshore wind projects with feasibility licences Developer Capacity Licence Orsted Offshore Australia 1 Orsted 2.8 Granted Gippsland Skies Consortium* 2.5 Granted Star of the South Southerly Ten 2.2 Offered Kut-Wut Brataualung Southerly Ten 2.2 Granted High Sea Wind Ocean Winds 1.3 Granted Blue Mackerel North Parkwind 1.0 Granted Aurora Green Iberdrola 3.0 Under consultation Great Eastern Offshore Wind Corio Generation 2.5 Under consultation Gippsland Dawn Bluefloat Energy 2.1 Under consultation Orsted Offshore Australia 2 Orsted 2.0 Under consultation Navigator North Origin Energy, RES 1.5 Under consultation Kent Offshore Wind RWE N/A Under consultation Source: federal government, companies *Mainstream Renewable Power, Reventus Power, AGL, Direct Infrastructure Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand
US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand
New York, 1 May (Argus) — US natural gas producers and pipelines have pivoted almost in unison this year to talking up what they see as one of the strongest bullish cases for gas this decade: surging electricity demand from yet-to-be-built data centers to power artificial intelligence software. EQT, the largest US gas producer by volume, in an investor presentation last week called growing data center demand the "cornerstone" to the "natural gas bull case." Combining its own research with data from the US Energy Information Administration, the gas giant forecast an increase in gas demand of 10 Bcf/d (283mn m3/d) by 2030 to generate electricity, mostly to run data centers. Its more aggressive data center build-out scenario envisions a whopping 18 Bcf/d increase in gas demand through 2030. Total US gas production is currently about 100 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan, one of the largest US gas pipeline operators, this month forecast 20pc of US power being gobbled up by data centers in 2030, up from a 2.5pc share in 2022. Cobbling together projections from several consultancies and financial advisories, the company said the electricity needed to run artificial intelligence software alone will comprise 15pc of US power demand by 2030. If just 40pc of that demand is met by gas, that would represent an increase in gas demand of 7-10 Bcf/d, it said. This is roughly in line with the high end of US bank Tudor Pickering Holt's forecast for gas demand to power data centers through 2030 (1.3-8.5 Bcf/d) and well above Goldman Sachs' and consultancy Enverus' projections of 3.3 Bcf/d and 2 Bcf/d, respectively. New tech, old problems Separating the wide ranges of these projections is the highly speculative nature of forecasting demand years into the future for competing energy sources to power next-generation technology. But the major upside and downside risks, analysts say, concern the more humdrum challenges of permitting and building out energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs expects 28GW, or 60pc, of the generation capacity needed to power new data centers through 2030 will come from natural gas — 9GW from combined cycle gas turbines and 19GW from gas peaker plants. But with an average lag of four years from the time a gas transmission project is announced to the time it enters service, to say nothing of the high probability of litigation being brought by environmentalists and landowners, construction and permitting timelines are "the most top of mind constraint for natural gas," the bank said. Indeed, litigation and opposition from state regulators have ultimately led developers to call off several interstate pipeline projects in the eastern US in recent years. The exception to the rule, Equitrans' 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline is moving forward only because congressional action allowed it to bypass federal permitting hurdles. This is a particular problem for the gas industry's hopes of exploiting the data center boom, as a large share of future data centers are slated to be built in the southeast US, far from the major US gas fields. New data centers representing 2 Bcf/d of gas demand in Georgia probably requires a new pipeline into the southeast, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Southeast premium A significant data-center buildout in the southeast without new pipelines could put upward pressure on regional gas prices, McLean said. This could exacerbate the effects of what has become perhaps the most prominent bullish case for US gas: a massive build-out of LNG export terminals along the US Gulf coast. With new export terminals pulling increasing volumes of gas south along the Transcontinental gas pipeline to super-chill and ship overseas in the coming years, the build-out in data centers will likely produce "an even bigger deficit in that southeast (gas) market," EQT chief financial officer Jeremy Knop told investors last week. "We think that market really, in time, becomes the most premium market in the country," he said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mitsui makes delayed exit from Paiton power project
Mitsui makes delayed exit from Paiton power project
Tokyo, 1 May (Argus) — Japanese trading house Mitsui completed on 30 April the ¥109bn ($690mn) sale of its stake in Indonesia's 2,045MW Paiton coal-fired power plant in east Java following multiple delays. Mitsui originally tried to complete its exit by the end of March 2022 . It said the procedures with Paiton's offtaker Indonesian state-owned power firm Persero took more time than expected without providing further details. Japanese thermal power producer Jera withdrew from Paiton by selling its 14pc share in 2021. Mitsui sold its 45.515pc share in Paiton Energy, as well as a 45.515pc stake in Netherlands-based subsidiary Minejesa Capital and a 65pc stake in Singapore-based IPM Asia that are related companies of the Paiton project. Mistui sold the stakes to RH International (RHIS), which is a Singapore-based subsidiary of Thai power producer Ratch, and Indonesian power company Medco Daya Abadi Lestari's subsidiary Medco Daya Energi Sentosa (MDES). Paiton Energy is now owned by RHIS, MDES and Qatar-based company Nebras Power. Mitsui did not disclose their ownership ratios. Paiton consists of the 615MW No.7, 615MW No.8 and the 815MW No.3 units, which sell electricity to Persero through an unspecified long-term contract. Mitsui now holds 9.6GW of power capacity assets globally, with 8pc being coal-fired projects. The exit from Paiton cut its coal-fired ratio by 8 percentage points, while raising its renewable ratio by 3 percentage points to 32pc. Growing global pressure against coal-fired power generation likely prompted Mitsui to exit Paiton. Energy ministers from G7 countries this week pledged to accelerate "efforts towards the phase-out of unabated coal power generation". By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Italian April power imports drop on NTC restrictions
Italian April power imports drop on NTC restrictions
London, 30 April (Argus) — Italian net electricity imports fell to their lowest in more than a year in April owing to significant constraints in net transfer capacity (NTC) from France to Italy, supporting an increase in domestic generation. Net imports averaged 4.7GW in April, down from 7GW in March and well below 6.7GW in the same month last year, according to data from Italian transmission system operator Terna. This was the country's tightest net importing position for any month since August. Italian imports from France saw the largest year-on-year decline, averaging 1.5GW compared with 2.7GW in April last year. This was Italy's lowest net imports since August 2022. Imports from Switzerland also fell on the year, declining by 500MW to 2.3GW, the lowest since August last year ( see chart ). The steep drop in imports to Italy's north zone is largely a result of significant reduction in the available NTC on France's eastern borders. Since early March, strong commercial exports through all of France's eastern borders, combined with low availability of the French power grid because of planned and unplanned outages, have led to "an extremely tense situation" for the French transmission system, the country's grid operator RTE has said. These factors have led to soaring physical flows and security issues on some interconnectors on the France-Switzerland and France-Italy borders. RTE on 5 March reduced the day-ahead NTC on the France-Italy border from a scheduled 4.5GW to 1.6GW, but the measure proved "insufficient to mitigate operational issues", RTE said. The overloads, although close to the France-Italy border, were induced by high commercial exports on all of France's eastern borders, including those with Belgium and Germany. RTE consequently applied additional safety measures to guarantee the operational security of the grid, such as lowering the NTC on the France-Switzerland border from 2.5GW to 2GW. Export constraints have resulted in French prices remaining at a significant discount to Italy, with the French spot index delivering at an average discount of €59.13/MWh in April compared with €35.37/MWh in March and €28.61/MWh in April last year. And falling Italian imports have driven a 2GW year-on-year increase in domestic generation to 24.6GW in April, while Italian power demand has remained virtually stable at 28.8GW. Minimum temperatures in Milan averaged 6.6°C on 1-30 April, up from 5.3°C in March and above 5.7°C in April last year. RTE is expecting some NTC curtailments until the beginning of May and from August to mid-October, it said. By Timothy Santonastaso Italian imports by country GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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