11/07/25
USDA boosts soy view on biofuel policy changes
St Louis, 11 July (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) today raised
its projected US soybean crush for the 2025-26 marketing year following recent
policy changes that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil demand for
biofuel production. US soybean crush is expected to rise to a record 69.1mn
metric tonnes (t) in the 2025-26 marketing year, the USDA said Friday in its
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, up by
1.36mn t from the June report. The latest forecast marks a 5pc increase from
volume projected for the 2024-25 marketing year. The higher outlook for soybean
crush was driven by a substantial increase in anticipated soybean oil use for
biofuel production, which the USDA places at 7.03mn t for the marketing year
ahead, up by 27pc from the volume expected for the current marketing year. The
increased biofuel use outlook follows US policy changes that significantly
strengthen support for biofuels made from domestically produced feedstocks
through changes to the 45Z biofuels tax credit and Renewable Identification
Number credits generated through the Renewable Fuel Standard. The US is also
proposing to require record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the
next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel.
With the increase in soybean crush, USDA expects domestic soybean oil production
will rise to a record 13.6mn t in 2025-26, up by 4.1pc from the current
marketing year. Additionally, the USDA revised higher its expectation for
soybean oil imports in 2025-26 to 200,000t, up by 13pc from the current
marketing year. Following an elevated export rate over the first half of the
current marketing year, US soybean oil exports are projected to collapse in
2025-26, down by 73pc from the current marketing year to 318,000t. The reduction
in exports, in combination with increased supply, is projected to exceed the
gains in biofuel demand, increasing stocks to 758,000t by the end of the 2025-26
marketing year, up by 15pc from the inventory level projected for the end of
2024-25. Soybean meal supplies swell The jump in soybean oil demand is as also
expected to result in a record level of US soybean meal production in 2025-26,
up 4.5pc from 2024-25 to 54.3mn t, according to USDA. Both domestic use and
exports of soybean meal are projected higher for the next marketing year
following the increased supply outlook. US soybean meal exports are projected to
reach 17mn t, up 7.5pc from 2024-25, while US soybean meal domestic use is
projected to rise by 2.8pc to 37.9mn t. Soybean mean stocks are projected to
increase as well, reaching 431,000t by the end of 2025-26, up 5.6pc from the
level projected for the end of the 2024-25 marketing year. By Ryan Koory July
2025 USDA projections 2025-26 Chg from Jun 2024-25 Chg from Prior MY U.S.
soybean oil supply and use ( mn t ) Supply -Beginning stocks 0.66 - 0.70 -
-Production 13.59 0.27 13.06 - --Extraction ratio (pc) 19.67 0.00 19.83 -
-Imports 0.20 0.07 0.18 -0.05 Total supply 14.46 0.34 13.95 -0.05 Use -Domestic
disappearance 13.38 0.73 12.11 -0.14 --Biofuel 7.03 0.73 5.56 -0.39 --Food, feed
and other Industrial 6.35 - 6.55 0.25 -Exports 0.32 -0.45 1.18 0.09 Total use
13.70 0.27 13.29 -0.05 -Ending stocks 0.76 0.06 0.66 - -Stocks-to-use (pc) 5.53
0.36 4.95 0.02 U.S. soybean meal supply and use ( mn t ) Supply -Beginning
stocks 0.41 - 0.41 - -Production 54.30 1.04 51.98 - --Extraction ratio (pc)
78.54 -0.04 78.92 - -Imports 0.59 - 0.66 0.09 Total supply 55.29 1.04 53.05 0.09
Use -Domestic disappearance 37.90 0.41 36.85 0.09 -Exports 16.96 0.64 15.79 -
Total use 54.86 1.04 52.64 0.09 -Ending stocks 0.43 - 0.41 - -Stocks-to-use (pc)
0.79 -0.02 0.78 -0.00 October-September markeing year — USDA, Argus Send
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