News
19/12/25
La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn
Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn crop may face
slight losses following the La Nina climate phenomenon, which delayed soybean
planting. Farmers plant soybeans and winter corn in the same area, so delays in
the oilseed planting could push back grain sowing. Areas sown outside the
official planting window for the 2025-26 corn crop are subject to adverse
weather conditions and risk reaching their reproductive stages of grain filling
and flowering, which are more sensitive to water stress, at the height of winter
in Brazil, when the weather is dry. The deadline for concluding soybean sowing
in the center-west — which encompasses Goias, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do
Sul states — was 10-25 October for winter corn to be sown and developed with low
climatic risk. The closing period for a winter corn crop with medium climatic
risk was 21 October-5 November, according to market participants. Irregular
weather at the start of the 2025-26 soybean planting caused a delay in some
regions. Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states finalized sowing in the weeks
ended 5 December and 13 December, respectively. Planting in Goias state reached
97pc completion by 13 December. If corn planting is significantly delayed,
farmers may also reduce the technology for planting. Planting outside the ideal
window can harm productivity and, hence, the profitability of the crop. Prices
of inputs needed for grain cultivation are higher this season, which can
demotivate farmers to invest amid uncertain output. Production costs for Mato
Grosso's 2025-26 winter corn crop rose from the previous one, with fertilizer
costs estimated at R1,418/hectare ($256.50/ha) from R1,342/ha a year prior,
according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. But current
estimates have yet to reflect this scenario. National supply company Conab kept
its third estimates, released in December, mostly stable from the first outlook
for the season published in October. Brazil is expected to produce 110.5mn
metric tonnes (t) of corn in the second crop, 2.4pc less than the previous
cycle's 113.2mn t. The drop reflects the expected 6pc decrease in yields to
6,105 kg/ha from 6,496 kg/ha. This may come despite the nearly 4pc increase in
planted area to 18.1mn ha (181,000km²). Corn prices are expected to remain
stable in the coming months, according to Investment bank Itau BBA forecasts.
The 2024-25 corn season — considering the first, second and third crops —
increased by nearly 21pc, or 24.2mn t, but high domestic demand helped sustain
prices. Total 2025-26 corn output may drop by 1.5pc, or 2.2mn t, but it is
expected that prices may be firm due to the competition between domestic and
export markets. La Nina effects La Nina provoked irregular rainfall in
October-November and consequently delayed the 2025-26 soybean planting window.
The La Nina phenomenon is an abnormal cooling of the equatorial waters of the
Pacific Ocean. The consequence of this phenomenon in Brazil is a delay in the
start of regular rainfall, reducing volumes in the south and increasing humidity
in the north and northeast. Although classified as low intensity and short
duration, with a peak between November-December, this year's La Nina has been
altering rainfall patterns in Brazil and is expected to last until early 2026.
The trend is that the country will resume its usual climate patterns as of
February. 2025-26 soy crop should maintain record But Brazil is still on track
to produce a record amount of oilseed despite delays to the 2025-26 soybean
planting. Although irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season delayed
planting in major producing states, the return of regular rainfall should
compensate losses caused by a possible drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul
state. Even with Conab's third estimate still forecasting a record harvest of
177.1mn t, 3.3pc above the the 2024-25 cycle, the forecast is lower than the
177.6mn t in Conab's first projection. The drop is a result of lower estimates
for nationally planted area, which fell to 48.9mn ha in the third estimate from
49.1mn ha in the first. By Sofia Zizza Send comments and request more
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