Possible Canadian rail strike start delayed again

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Freight, LPG, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
31/05/24

The start of a threatened strike by some union workers at Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) has been pushed back again as concerns about fuel and food supplies rise.

If it goes forward, the strike would begin sometime after 17 June at the earliest. The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), which is investigating federal government concerns, has postponed reply comments to 14 June from 31 May. Original comments were due by 21 May.

If CIRB ruled on 15 June, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) would have to provide three days' notice to CN and CPKC before workers could strike.

But a strike may still may not occur for another 60 days. If CIRB issues any orders, the parties would likely not be in a position for a strike or lockout to begin for two months, CPKC said on 16 May. TCRC members had authorized a strike to start as early as 22 May.

The railroads and union met with CIRB on Monday and discussed the comments filed by groups that could be affected by a strike. Canadian minister of labour Seamus O'Regan asked CIRB earlier this month to consider requiring some rail service to continue in the event of a strike to help avoid health and safety issues related to propane supply.

A number of concerns arising from the comments have been identified, with many focused on the impact to commercial and economic interests, CIRB said.

The theme of certain comments concerned delivery of supplies of propane and diesel to critical areas, including and remote communities in northern British Columbia. Transportation also is important to the province of Manitoba which has been using rail to deliver fuel because of a Winnipeg products pipeline.

Other comments focused on domestic and global food security. They noted some sectors are dependent on rail for transportation, such as fertilizer, potash and canola products, CIRB said.

The potential, immediate impact on the supply of water treatment materials for several municipalities also was highlighted.

Other commentators sought advance warning of strike, asking CIRB to provide notice of when a decision would be made or that there be an extension of the notice required before a strike or lockout.

Negotiations between the railroads and TCRC continue. CN and the union will meet next week from 4-6 June. CPKC declined to comment on talks but met most recently with TCRC leadership between 15-21 May.

By Abby Caplan

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

16/06/25

Opec keeps oil demand growth projections unchanged

London, 16 June (Argus) — Opec has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next unchanged. The group sees oil consumption growing by 1.29mn b/d to 105.13mn b/d in 2025 and by 1.28mn b/d to 106.42mn b/d in 2026, according to its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) released today. These projections remain markedly higher than the IEA's forecasts . Opec upgraded its first quarter demand estimate, based on actual data, but said this increase was offset by lower expectations of oil demand in key consuming countries China and India in the second quarter and later in the year, mostly driven by US trade policies. In terms of supply, Opec downgraded its 2026 non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts for a third month in a row, mainly driven by the effects of lower oil prices on US shale producers. Opec now sees non-Opec+ liquids supply growth growing by 730,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 800,000 b/d in last month's OMR. Opec expects US liquids output growth of 210,000 b/d, down from 460,000 b/d in March. But the group kept its 2025 non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecast unchanged at 810,000 b/d. Opec made no reference to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran in its report, suggesting the hostilities have not affected its supply and demand balances. The Opec secretariat last week criticised the IEA for saying it was ready to release emergency oil stocks if necessary. Opec said there were currently "no developments in supply or market dynamics that warrant unnecessary actions" and that such statements raise "false alarms" and project "market fear." Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — rose by 180,000 b/d to 41.23mn b/d in May, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.7mn b/d in 2025 and 43.2mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil output set for first decline in 2026 since covid

16/06/25

US oil output set for first decline in 2026 since covid

New York, 16 June (Argus) — US shale oil output is poised to decline in 2026 for the first time in five years on lower crude prices — notwithstanding the spike that followed this week's Israeli attacks on Iran — and a slowdown in rig activity, throwing a wrench in President Donald Trump's plans to open the production floodgates during his second term. US crude output next year is due to average 13.37mn b/d, down from an expected 13.42mn b/d in 2025, according to a monthly report from government agency the EIA last week. That would be the first annual decline since 2021, when the pandemic throttled oil demand. The latest projection from the statistics arm of the US Department of Energy is a far cry from the 150,000 b/d gain expected for 2026 just a few months ago, but tallies with a growing chorus of warnings from shale producers that activity is at risk of tapering off in a lower oil price environment caused by a combination of Trump's trade wars and the accelerated unwinding of Opec+ cuts. The agency cited a larger-than-expected drop in the number of active rigs last month than what it had anticipated in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for May. "With fewer active drilling rigs, we forecast US operators will drill and complete fewer wells through 2026," the EIA said. Increased caution on the part of producers has seen the US rig count slide to its lowest since late 2021, while the inventory of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has been accumulating as companies hold off for the time being. While leading shale producers such as Diamondback Energy have already raised the alarm over peak output, the administration has countered that with efforts to slash red tape and free up permitting that it hopes will underpin the sector's growth potential over the long term. Next year's anticipated decline will be partially offset by an uptick in offshore output from the Gulf of Mexico as several projects start up. Production from the region is forecast to edge up to 1.85mn b/d next year from an expected 1.81mn b/d in 2025. The EIA expects 13 fields in the Gulf of Mexico to start oil and natural gas production this year and next — more than half of which will be developed using sub-sea tiebacks or extensions to floating production units — as an area that was overshadowed during the shale boom enjoys a revival. No big deal But the shale patch slowdown is already filtering through to deal-making. While fewer mergers and acquisitions have been announced in recent months compared with the dizzying pace seen in the past few years, there have been some notable exceptions of late. US independent EOG Resources last month swooped in for privately held Encino Acquisition Partners in a $5.6bn deal to expand its footprint in the Utica shale of Ohio. By doubling down on an up-and-coming basin in its first major acquisition in almost a decade, EOG avoided the lofty valuations seen in the increasingly crowded Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. And earlier this month, Viper Energy — a unit of Diamondback Energy that owns and acquires mineral and royalty interests — agreed to buy Sitio Royalties for $4.1bn to expand its Permian position. "Mineral interests offer the highest form of security and upside in the oil field, and any and all benefits an operator manages to unlock accrue directly to the mineral holder without any capital risk, forever," Diamondback chief executive Kaes Van't Hof says. And despite the recent headwinds spurred by Trump's on-and-off again tariffs and a deteriorating economic outlook, long-term oil price projections in a recent survey of banks by law firm Haynes Boone were little changed from autumn. That suggests lenders that took part view the current volatility as temporary. By Stephen Cunningham DPR-5 shale oil production drivers US tight oil production Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bangladesh’s BCIC seeks phosphoric acid in tender

16/06/25

Bangladesh’s BCIC seeks phosphoric acid in tender

London, 16 June (Argus) — State-owned Bangladeshi fertilizer producer and importer BCIC has issued a tender to buy 20,000t of phosphoric acid, closing on 4 August. BCIC is seeking offers for merchant-grade 52-54pc P2O5 acid for shipment to Chattogram. It wants the sale to be competed within 45 days from receiving the letter of credit. BCIC will close tenders to buy 10,000t and 20,000t of phosphoric acid on 17 June and 30 June, respectively. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German gasoil demand up on Middle East conflict

16/06/25

German gasoil demand up on Middle East conflict

Hamburg, 16 June (Argus) — Gasoil demand in Germany has risen sharply following Israel's attack on Iran in the early hours of 13 June. The attack triggered a sharp increase in crude and gasoil futures and prompted German traders to buy ahead of possible further price rises. The rise in demand coincides with relatively low import availability into northern German ports, largely because of reduced arrivals from countries east of the Suez Canal. The arbitrage window from east of Suez to northwest Europe was closed from early May to the first week of June, limiting flows into the region at a time when German demand had been weakening. Northern German ports received 67,000 b/d of diesel from the US and the Netherlands during 1–13 June — a daily average increase from May, but still 44pc lower than in April. Ice Brent crude futures rose by more than 10pc at one point on 13 June, while Ice gasoil futures jumped by up to $60/t. The price surge fed through to the German market, where national average prices rose by nearly €3.30/100 litres for heating oil, €3.20/100l for diesel and €2.40/100l for gasoline. Domestic traders responded by stepping up purchases ahead of the weekend, anticipating further price increases should the conflict between Israel and Iran escalate. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pupuk Indonesia distributes subsidised fertilizers

16/06/25

Pupuk Indonesia distributes subsidised fertilizers

Singapore, 16 June (Argus) — State-owned fertilizer producer Pupuk Indonesia has distributed about 3.24mn t of subsidised fertilizers to registered domestic farmers as of 9 June, the company said. The distributed volumes consist of 1.55mn t of urea, 1.57mn t of NPK fertilizers, 25,500t of specialised NPK formulas and 98,600t of Pupuk's Petroganik organic fertilizers. Pupuk Indonesia's current national fertilizer stock availability for the domestic market is around 2mn t, comprising subsidised and non-subsidised products. Subsidised fertilizer stocks amount to 1.37mn t and non-subsidised fertilizer stocks are at 680,000t. Pupuk Indonesia has set a highest retail price (HET) for the sale of subsidised fertilizers. The HET for urea fertilizers is set at 2,250 rupiahs/kg ($138/t), for NPK Phonska fertilizers it is at 2,300 rupiahs/kg ($141/t), for NPK fertilizers for cocoa it is at 3,300 rupiahs/kg ($203/t), and for organic fertilizers it is at 800 rupiahs/kg ($49/t). Pupuk Indonesia is widely expected to have around 150,000t of urea available for July-loading export, according to market participants, but no tender has emerged yet. By Dinise Chng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more