18/06/26
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
London, 18 June (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast and
put greater emphasis on what it sees as a continuing shift in energy-transition
policy, pointing to governments and companies placing more weight on energy
security, affordability and oil and gas investment. The 2026 World Oil Outlook
(WOO) puts global oil demand at 124.1mn b/d in 2050, up from 122.9mn b/d in last
year's report. Its 2030 forecast is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, while its 2040
projection rises to 121.7mn b/d from 120mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. The upward
revision to the 2050 forecast is modest, but the policy framing is firmer than
last year. Opec says the "shift in energy transition narratives" identified in
the 2025 WOO has continued over the past year, with more countries seeking what
it calls a "more balanced approach" that takes in energy security, availability
and affordability as well as emissions reductions. The WOO says recent
geopolitical tensions have prompted major energy consumers to rethink their
positioning in global energy markets, although it treats current market
volatility as a short-term issue rather than a direct driver of its long-term
forecasts. The report also says major energy companies are "re-orienting
themselves towards a focus on oil and gas", after previously presenting
themselves more broadly as "energy solution providers". Opec does not provide a
direct reconciliation of the higher 2050 oil demand number. But its regional
tables show the increase from last year's WOO is concentrated mainly in the OECD
and Africa, partly offset by a lower projection for China. OECD demand is still
projected to decline over the long term, but to 38mn b/d in 2050, compared with
37.2mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. African demand is put at 9.2mn b/d, up from 8.8mn
b/d, while China's 2050 forecast is lower at 18mn b/d, compared with 18.4mn b/d
last year. India remains the largest single source of long-term oil demand
growth, although its 2050 forecast is little changed. Opec sees Indian demand
rising from 5.6mn b/d in 2025 to 13.8mn b/d in 2050, compared with a 2050
forecast of 13.7mn b/d in last year's WOO. Non-OECD demand is projected to rise
by 26.9mn b/d between 2025 and 2050, while OECD demand falls by 7.9mn b/d. Last
year's WOO saw non-OECD demand increasing by 27.7mn b/d and OECD demand
declining by 8.5mn b/d between 2024 and 2050, so direct growth comparisons are
affected by the shifted base year. The sectoral drivers are broadly unchanged.
Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation remain the three largest sources of
incremental oil use. Opec now sees road transport demand rising by 5.7mn b/d to
2050, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.6mn b/d. Last year's WOO put
the comparable increases at 5.3mn b/d, 4.2mn b/d and 4.7mn b/d, respectively,
although from a 2024 rather than 2025 base. On supply, the broad outlook is
little changed. Opec sees global liquids supply rising to 124.2mn b/d by 2050,
compared with 123mn b/d in last year's WOO. Supply from producers outside the
Opec+ alliance is seen plateauing at around 60mn b/d in the 2030s, while Opec+
producers' share of global liquids supply again rises to 52pc by 2050, from 48pc
in 2025. Last year's WOO also put the group's 2050 share at 52pc. Opec puts
cumulative oil-related investment needs at $17.7 trillion over 2026-50,
including $14.5 trillion upstream, $1.9 trillion downstream and $1.3 trillion
midstream. Last year's WOO estimated $18.2 trillion over 2025-50, including
$14.9 trillion upstream, but the comparison is affected by the different
forecast window and dollar basis. Opec also sees downstream balances tightening
later this decade. The deficit between required and net potential refining
capacity is projected to rise to more than 1.5mn b/d by 2030, as demand growth
outpaces net capacity additions, particularly in Asia-Pacific. The 2026 WOO
lists 4.9mn b/d of refining additions in 2026-30, compared with 5.8mn b/d in
last year's outlook for 2025-30, while global refinery utilisation rises from
80.8pc to 82.7pc over 2025-30. By James Keates Send comments and request more
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