The estimated size of the Australian cattle herd as of 30 June 2023 has increased significantly with a methodology change for collecting data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) previously relied on producer surveys to estimate beef and dairy herd sizes but a poor response rate forced it to gather data from other sources. This led to a change in the estimated herd size from 24.4mn head of cattle in Australian paddocks at the close of the 2022-23 fiscal year to 27.8mn.
The data primarily serves as a retrospective figure with a minimal impact on future slaughter rates and current market prices. But government and industry research agencies use it to forecast future herd movements and to estimate the impact of livestock.
A change in the methodology is the inclusion of cattle on smaller farms. Since 2015 the ABS excluded livestock businesses with annual output of less than A$40,000 ($26,700) to reduce reporting burdens on micro-size producers.
When releasing its new estimated herd size the ABS explained that this was because of a herd rebuild in Queensland, the largest contributing state to the Australian cattle population, where cattle numbers increased by 4.2pc from a year earlier to 13.2mn head. Beef cattle numbers also increased in New South Wales by 6.2pc to 5.9mn and in Victoria by 5pc to 2.9mn.
But the value of livestock disposals in 2022-23 fell by 1pc to A$23.3bn, according to the ABS. Lower rainfall through the early stages of 2023 reduced producers' confidence, resulting in volatile market conditions and affecting prices for red meat throughout the second half of the year.
