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Opec's oil demand growth forecasts remain the same

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 10/07/24

Opec has again doubled down on its bullish oil demand growth forecast for this year, keeping it unchanged for a 12th consecutive month.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec forecasts oil demand to grow by 2.25mn b/d, unchanged since it first published a projection for 2024 in July last year. It kept its oil demand growth projection for next year at 1.85mn b/d, unchanged from when it was first forecast in January 2024.

The unchanging nature of Opec's 2024 oil demand figures is notable given that this far into a year oil demand forecasts are typically altered — sometimes by very small margins — as more economic and consumption data become available.

The gap between Opec and other forecasters has grown in recent months, as the EIA and IEA have downgraded their oil demand growth estimates for this year. The EIA forecasts demand will increase by 1.1mn b/d, while the IEA puts it lower at 960,000 b/d.

Opec said the US Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy and the high interest rate environment was increasing costs of capital, particularly in the US market, which is limiting investment in upstream exploration and production. It said high interest rates were supporting a strong US dollar, which was resulting in higher commodity prices.

But Opec said the Fed could begin to cut rates in the latter half of the year given strong US growth and "a downward trend in global inflationary pressures."

On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth estimate for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d and 1.10mn b/d, respectively. It said non-Opec+ growth for 2024 would be mostly driven by the US, Canada and Brazil.

Opec+ crude production fell by 125,000 b/d to 40.8mn b/d in June, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. This is around 2.3mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude, which it sees at 43.1mn b/d.


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05/02/25

Trump proposes US take control of Gaza

Trump proposes US take control of Gaza

Washington, 4 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump on Tuesday called for the US to take over Gaza, relocate the population of more than 2mn to other countries and then redevelop the enclave. Meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, the one-time real estate developer sketched out a plan in which the US would "own" Gaza, level what has become a "demolition site" and remake the territory into the "Riviera of the Middle East". Assuming such a role would embroil the US far more deeply in what has been the deadliest conflict in the region in decades. Asked whether US troops would be involved in his plan, Trump said: "If it's necessary, we'll do that." Trump did not say where, exactly, the Palestinians from Gaza would be relocated, although he said he had a "feeling, despite them saying no" that Jordan's King Abdullah and Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi "will open their hearts and will give us the kind of land we need to get this done". Trump said the only reason people want to return to their homes in Gaza is because they believe they have no alternative. Instead, they could be relocated and "live in comfort and peace". And after the rebuilding is completed, people from "all over the world" would live in the new Gaza — "Palestinians also," Trump said. Netanyahu praised Trump for his "willingness to puncture conventional thinking" and to propose ideas that could reshape the Middle East. "You cut to the chase," Netanyahu told Trump during the press conference. "You see things others refuse to see. You say things others refuse to say. And after their jaws drop, people scratch their heads. And they say, ‘You know. He's right.'" But Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry, in an apparent reaction to Trump's proposal, Tuesday argued the international community has a responsibility to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people "who will remain steadfast on their land and will not move from it". By David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso volatility persists despite tariff delay


04/02/25
04/02/25

Mexican peso volatility persists despite tariff delay

Mexico City, 4 February (Argus) — The Mexican peso remains volatile despite a bump from the last-minute deal postponing US President Donald Trump's threatened 25pc tariffs on Mexican imports, financial analysts said. The US agreed Monday to delay the tariffs for one month after discussions between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. In return, Mexico pledged to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to combat drug trafficking, with a focus on fentanyl. The peso initially reacted positively to the news, strengthening by nearly 3pc late Monday after the agreement was announced. Still, today the Mexican peso weakened 0.4pc to Ps20.5 to the dollar by the end of trading, according to data from Mexico's Central Bank (Banxico). The peso has depreciated 16.6pc against the dollar from a year ago, according to Banxico data. The currency will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on whether tariffs will ultimately be imposed and at what level, BBVA Mexico bank analysts said in a note. If the US proceeds with a 25pc tariff, the peso could weaken to Ps24/$1, pushing Mexico's economy into a 1.5pc contraction this year, according to the bank. A lower 10pc tariff would be more manageable, BBVA Mexico added, as peso depreciation would offset some cost increases for US importers. In that scenario, Mexico's economy could still grow by 1pc in 2025. "Markets have debated whether to take Trump's policy promises seriously but not literally, or both seriously and literally," Barclays analysts wrote in a note to investors. Barclays also noted that the US sees itself as having the upper hand in any trade war, as a far greater share of Canadian and Mexican exports depend on US demand than vice versa. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex typically benefits from peso depreciation because of its US dollar-denominated crude exports, which help offset higher fuel import costs. "Pemex's revenues are tied to international oil prices, providing a natural hedge," the company said in its latest earnings report. However, analysts warned that Pemex's shift toward domestic refining over exports could reduce this buffer, leaving the company more vulnerable to foreign exchange swings, particularly as it carries a large dollar-denominated debt load. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Baghdad, Erbil take steps to restart Kurdish oil flows


04/02/25
04/02/25

Baghdad, Erbil take steps to restart Kurdish oil flows

Dubai, 4 February (Argus) — Iraq's oil ministry has officially asked the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to start delivering oil to state marketer Somo as part of a deal reached between Baghdad and Erbil to restart north Iraqi crude oil exports through the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. "The Turkish and Iraqi governments are taking the steps to prepare the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [ITP] to export crude through the port of Ceyhan," Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdulghani told state news agency INA. He said that no less than 300,000 b/d of the Iraqi semi-autonomous Kurdish region's crude will be exported once the pipeline is back in operation. "The debts owed by the Kurdistan region are being agreed upon between the two parties," he added. Abdulghani did not provide an official date for the resumption of exports. Iraq's oil ministry has been approached for comment. But his remarks signal that a restart of the country's northern crude is close, made possible by Iraq's parliament approving a key budget amendment on 2 February that will see oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region get $16/bl for their production and transportation costs , double the previous rate. As part of the amendment, an international consulting firm will be tasked with auditing Kurdish production and transportation costs over a 60-day period. Iraq's federal oil ministry and its KRG counterpart will co-ordinate on appointing the auditor but if they fail to reach agreement, the Iraqi government will make the selection unilaterally. Opec+ commitments Disagreement between Baghdad and the KRG over commercial terms has prevented the resumption of Kurdish crude exports have yet to resume from Ceyhan after the pipeline linking the port with oil fields in northern Iraq was closed by Turkey in March 2023. The closure followed an international arbitration ruling that said Turkey had breached a bilateral agreement with Iraq by allowing KRG crude to be exported without Baghdad's consent. While the resumption of oil flows via Ceyhan should give the Iraqi oil ministry more visibility on how much crude is being produced in the Kurdistan region, Baghdad may still find itself in a dilemma as regards its Opec+ commitments. Iraq has been the biggest overproducer in Opec+ for over a year, and officials there have said a lack of visibility about output from the northern region has complicated its efforts to comply. Baghdad will now have to balance its own production alongside that of Erbil, while ensuring it adheres to its Opec+ quota and its compensation commitments. Opec+ has come under pressure as US President Donald Trump recently called for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil". But so far, Opec+ has not heeded those calls with its key ministerial panel agreeing on 3 February to keep its policy as is, meaning it would not see any production returned to market until at least April. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump makes U-turn on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update


03/02/25
03/02/25

Trump makes U-turn on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update

Washington, 3 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump reversed course on planned tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, delaying their implementation by one month. Trump over the weekend issued executive orders for a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada, a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports and a 10pc tariff on all imports from China, all to be effective on 4 February. But Trump delayed the tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month and has indicated that tariffs on China likewise could be subject to negotiations with Beijing. Trump's decision-making on Mexico and Canada tariffs so far looks like a signature move from his first term — escalatory rhetoric and action followed by de-escalation after extracting concessions that do not appear to be significant. Trump said today he agreed to postpone the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods after receiving assurances from Mexico president Claudia Sheinbaum that she would immediately reinforce the shared border with 10,000 national guard troops. Trump also cited similar assurances from Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. "As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that," Trump said via his social media platform. "I am very pleased with this initial outcome." In both cases, the border security pledges touted by Sheinbaum and Trudeau recast initiatives already planned or underway. Trump told reporters today he would "be speaking to China probably over the next 24 hours" — likely meaning the country's president Xi Jinping. Unlike Mexico and Canada, China has taken a restrained stance to Trump's announcement of tariffs. Like the US immediate neighbors, China already has been taking steps to cut off the illegal manufacturing and exports of precursors for fentanyl — the pretext for Trump's tariffs. Things can only get bitter The announcement of tariffs that would have directly hit US energy trade will leave many in the industry scratching their heads about Trump's future moves. A major trade war that would have severely curtailed the flow of energy and other commodities across North America is averted for now, but Trump is signaling that tariffs remain a key plank on his policy agenda. Trump has shrugged off any negative impacts on the US energy sector and the broader economy, saying over the weekend that "WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID." In remarks to reporters today, Trump pushed back against criticism of negative impacts of his tariffs. "Very simply, every single country that you're writing about right now is dying to make a deal," Trump said. In the immediate term, the Trump administration will hold high-level talks with the governments of Mexico and Canada against the deadline for the delayed imposition of tariffs. But down the line, there are other motivations for Trump to move forward with tariffs against key US trading partners. Trump today once again decried the "massive deficits" the US has in trade with Canada, Mexico, China, the EU and the UK. And then there is the lure of tariff revenue that Trump — with an eye toward upcoming congressional deliberation of extending tax cuts beyond 2025 — says would be sufficient to offset lower personal and corporate taxes. Trump set a 1 April deadline for US government agencies to prepare a report on "unfair trade practices" by key US trading partners, which would kick off a legal process for imposing tariffs in the following two months. Trump is separately planning to review the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement that his first administration negotiated in 2019. Unlike the tariffs that were due to be imposed on Tuesday by an executive order, the broader plan for tariffs scheduled to kick in after 1 April would be harder to reverse or to negotiate away. And his first two weeks in office show that, despite his claim to be championing America's "energy dominance", the US energy industry would not be exempt during the upcoming trade wars. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US delays Canada tariffs by a month: Trudeau


03/02/25
03/02/25

US delays Canada tariffs by a month: Trudeau

Calgary, 3 February (Argus) — US tariffs threatened against Canada will be delayed by 30 days, prime minister Justin Trudeau said this afternoon after talking with US president Donald Trump. "I just had a good call with President Trump," Trudeau posted on X, before describing Canada's plan to send thousands of officials to the US border to police fentanyl trafficking. The two leaders spoke twice on Monday, the eve of sweeping tariffs Trump had proposed against Canada and Mexico . Earlier in the day Mexican tariffs were also delayed by a month after similar promises for more troops on the border. "Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border," Trudeau wrote. "In addition, Canada is making new commitments to appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we will list cartels as terrorists, ensure 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada-US Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering." Canada will be putting C$200mn ($139mn) towards tackling organized crime and fentanyl. In light of the US-Canada tariff pause, manufacturing and mineral-heavy Ontario said it would pause retaliation measures of its own announced earlier in the day. That would have banned US companies from provincial contracts, removed American products in liquor stores and cancelled a contract with Elon Musk's Starlink internet services. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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