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Opec's oil demand growth forecasts remain the same

  • : Crude oil
  • 24/07/10

Opec has again doubled down on its bullish oil demand growth forecast for this year, keeping it unchanged for a 12th consecutive month.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec forecasts oil demand to grow by 2.25mn b/d, unchanged since it first published a projection for 2024 in July last year. It kept its oil demand growth projection for next year at 1.85mn b/d, unchanged from when it was first forecast in January 2024.

The unchanging nature of Opec's 2024 oil demand figures is notable given that this far into a year oil demand forecasts are typically altered — sometimes by very small margins — as more economic and consumption data become available.

The gap between Opec and other forecasters has grown in recent months, as the EIA and IEA have downgraded their oil demand growth estimates for this year. The EIA forecasts demand will increase by 1.1mn b/d, while the IEA puts it lower at 960,000 b/d.

Opec said the US Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy and the high interest rate environment was increasing costs of capital, particularly in the US market, which is limiting investment in upstream exploration and production. It said high interest rates were supporting a strong US dollar, which was resulting in higher commodity prices.

But Opec said the Fed could begin to cut rates in the latter half of the year given strong US growth and "a downward trend in global inflationary pressures."

On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth estimate for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d and 1.10mn b/d, respectively. It said non-Opec+ growth for 2024 would be mostly driven by the US, Canada and Brazil.

Opec+ crude production fell by 125,000 b/d to 40.8mn b/d in June, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. This is around 2.3mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude, which it sees at 43.1mn b/d.


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25/02/06

Amos to buy Sinopec Venezuelan oil, gas assets

Amos to buy Sinopec Venezuelan oil, gas assets

Caracas, 6 February (Argus) — US upstream start-up Amos Global Energy Management has agreed to buy some of Chinese Sinopec's oil and natural gas interests in Venezuela with an eye on US sanctions eventually easing there, the Houston-based firm said. Venezuela's state-owned PdV is the majority owner of the stake to be sold, which is part of the PetroParia joint venture with Sinopec in the Gulf of Paria. "Sinopec did not develop it better because of clashes with PdV management, but the potential to export gas to Trinidad and Tobago from the property is clear", Maracaibo-based analyst ChemStrategy said. Trinidad and Tobago has discussed developing gas fields that straddle its border with Venezuela to stem its downturn in production. But US sanctions on Venezuela's crude sector have slowed progress, and the administration of President Donald Trump has not indicated that it will change course . Amos "believes that this purchase will ultimately bring the investments needed to develop oil and gas production opportunities" there and in other nearby properties, including in a previous agreement in the same Gulf of Paria with Inepetrol. PdV officials and pro-Maduro lawmakers in Caracas said they were aware of the plan but declined to offer additional details. Amos has been seeking capital and arming agreements to be "prepared to increase Venezuelan production when existing sanctions are lifted." Amos is led by chief executive Ali Moshiri who retired as president of Chevron Africa and Latin America exploration and production in March 2017. Completion of the sale will require approval from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control and the Venezuelan hydrocarbons ministry, Amos said. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP puts Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany up for sale


25/02/06
25/02/06

BP puts Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany up for sale

Hamburg, 6 February (Argus) — BP said today it will begin seeking buyers for its Ruhr Oel business, which includes the 257,800 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery and an associated petrochemicals plant in western Germany. The UK company hopes to reach a sales agreement in 2025, although the exact timing will depend on approval of local competition authorities, it said. The sale should have no affect on short-term supply of oil products in western Germany as the refinery will keep up normal production in the interim, the company said in a press release. BP had said it planned to downsize Gelsenkirchen , shutting four unitsand reducing its crude capacity by a third. The shutdown of the affected units is scheduled for the end of the 2025 and will go ahead, BP told Argus . Potential buyers are not yet known. BP is the latest in a series of companies looking to sell or reduce their refinery shares in Germany. Shell is still searching for a buyer for its 37.5pc stake in the PCK consortium's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery, in eastern Germany, after a sale to UK energy firm Prax fell through in late December. Shell was also in discussions to sell its 32.25pc stake in the Miro's consortium's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery to czech company MERO CR in 2024, which did not result in a sales agreement. Shell is further on track to shut down the Wesseling plant at its 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery complex. Russian state-controlled Rosneft intends to sell its German subsidiaries, Rosneft Deutschland and RN Refining & Marketing, which are held under the trusteeship of the Federal Network Agency. These assets include a controlling stake in the PCK joint venture, a 24pc share in the Miro's consortium and a 28.6pc share in the Bayernoil joint venture, operator of the 207,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg refinery in Bavaria. ExxonMobil announced its intention to sell its 25pc stake in the Karlsruhe refinery to Austria's Alcmene, a subsidiary of Estonia's Liwathon, in 2023. The sale fell through in July 2024 after a German court upheld a ruling banning the company from selling its stakes in the Miro consortium following an injunction filed by Shell. BP also operates the 95,000 b/d Lingen refinery in western Germany. This is unaffected by the sale plan for Gelsenkirchen. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Beach cuts FY24-25 oil, gas output target


25/02/06
25/02/06

Australia's Beach cuts FY24-25 oil, gas output target

Sydney, 6 February (Argus) — Australian independent Beach Energy has narrowed its oil and gas output guidance for the year to 30 June 2025, given delays in bringing the Western Australian (WA) 250 TJ/d Waitsia gas plant on line. Beach will produce 18.5mn-20.5mn bl of oil equivalent/d (boe/d) in 2024-25, it said in its half-year results to 31 December. It revised the top end of its previous forecast of 17.5mn-21.5mn boe down because of delays at Waitsia, which is operated by joint venture partner Japanese trading house Mitsui. Beach has maintained its guidance for first sales gas at Waitsia in April-June. The Adelaide-based firm last month reported its output at 10.2mn boe in July-December 2024, 15pc higher on the year, leading Beach to raise the bottom end of its guidance. The five Waitsia LNG swap cargoes that Beach has executed to date have brought forward revenue for the firm, which reported A$139mn ($87.1mn) from the two shipped in July-December 2024. A fifth cargo was lifted from Australian independent Woodside Energy's 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG terminal in January, while a possible sixth may occur before the end of June. "We have opportunities for additional swaps in the market and we're looking very closely… I'm hoping to get another [cargo] out before the half-year," chief executive Brett Woods said on 6 February. About 35pc of the gas exported via swap cargoes to date were from Beach's own 20 TJ/d (534,000 m³/d) Xyris gas plant, meaning it will not need to be swapped back, Woods said. Beach expects 8-10 cargoes/yr of Waitsia gas to be shipped until 2028, with scope to further extend the project's LNG exports following the WA government's changes to onshore gas export rules. Waitsia partners hold a gas processing agreement with the NWS JV running until the end of 2028. Beach will start its Offshore Gas Victoria programme in 2025 as part of its ambition to become a major domestic gas supplier. This includes drilling the Hercules gas prospect in Victoria state's offshore Otway basin in April-June, described as a "large scale opportunity" with prospective reserves of 100bn ft³ (280mn m³). No change was made to Beach's 2024-25 capital expenditure guidance of A$700mn-$800mn. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Equinor Norwegian gas output up on year in 2024


25/02/05
25/02/05

Equinor Norwegian gas output up on year in 2024

London, 5 February (Argus) — Norwegian state-controlled Equinor's gas output on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) edged up on the year, driven by record-high output from the giant Troll field and fewer unplanned outages at NCS assets, the firm said on Wednesday. The firm's Norwegian gas output rose by 4pc on the year to 758,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) or 107mn m³/d in 2024. This was driven by "strong contributions" from the Troll and Johan Sverdrup fields, Equinor said. Gas production from Troll — in which Equinor holds a 31pc stake — reached an all-time high last year at roughly 116mn m³/d, the Norwegian producer has said. And there were fewer "unplanned losses" on the NCS last year than in 2023, Equinor said. The firm was the largest producer on the NCS in 2023, accounting for more than a third of total gas output on the shelf, the latest available data from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate show. Equinor's global gas output rose by 2pc to 985,000 boe/d or 139mn m³/d last year. But the firm's combined oil and gas global output was slightly lower in 2024, with a small increase in gas production insufficient to offset lower liquids output. Equinor's equity liquids production was 1.08mn boe/d in 2024, down by 3pc on the year. Equinor expects "more than 10pc growth from 2024-27" in oil and gas production, reaching a peak at 2.3mn boe/d in 2027. And the firm estimated that hydrocarbons output would grow by 4pc from 2024 to 2025. Equinor's reported Norwegian gas prices dropped by 22pc on the year to $9.47/mn Btu, or €31.01/MWh, in 2024, using Wednesday's exchange rate. And the average reported price for its US gas decreased by 4pc to $1.70/mn Btu, or €5.57/MWh. Equinor made a profit of $8.83bn in 2024, down by 26pc on the year. Profit was $1.99bn in the fourth quarter, 23pc lower on the year. The company has cut its 2030 expected renewables capacity to 10-12GW, from 12-16GW, noting that the pace of the energy transition is slower in some markets. It did not give a new target for capital expenditure allocation to this sector. Equinor also modified some net carbon intensity goals, setting ranges rather than absolute targets. By Georgia Gratton and Jana Cervinkova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Equinor scales back renewables plan


25/02/05
25/02/05

Equinor scales back renewables plan

London, 5 February (Argus) — Norwegian state-controlled Equinor said today it has cut by up to 25pc its target for renewables capacity by 2030, and abandoned a plan to allocate half its capital expenditure (capex) to low carbon projects by that same year. The company has cut its 2030 expected renewables capacity to 10-12GW, from 12-16GW, noting that the pace of the energy transition is slower in some markets. It did not give a new target for capex allocation to this sector. Equinor also modified some net carbon intensity goals, setting ranges rather than absolute targets. It now plans to reduce net carbon intensity — which includes scope 3 emissions, from sold products — by 15-20pc by 2030 and by 30-40pc by 2035, from a 2019 baseline. The previous targets were at the higher end of these ranges. Equinor made a profit of $8.83bn in 2024, down by 26pc on the year. Profit was $1.99bn in the fourth quarter, lower on the year by 23pc. The company's oil and gas output was slightly lower in 2024, with a small increase in gas production not quite offsetting lower liquids output. Equinor's equity liquids production was 1.08mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2024, down by 3pc on the year, and its equity gas production rose by 2pc to 985,000 boe/d over the same timeframe. It expects "more than 10pc growth from 2024-27" in oil and gas production, and estimated that hydrocarbons output would grow by 4pc from 2024 to 2025. Liquids and gas prices fell in 2024. Equinor's reported Norwegian and US gas prices rose by 5pc and 26pc, respectively, on the year in the October-December period, but this was not enough to assuage a decrease across the year. The average reported price for its Norwegian gas dropped by 22pc on the year to $9.47/mn Btu in 2024, and the average reported price for its US gas decreased by 4pc to $1.70/mn Btu. Equinor reported an average liquids price of $74.1/bl in 2024, 1pc lower on the year. Its reported fourth-quarter 2024 liquids price fell by 10pc from the same period in 2023, to $68.5/bl. Equinor's power generation rose in 2024, boosted by additions in Brazil and Poland in 2023 and the start of the 531MW Mendubim solar plant in Brazil in 2024. Equinor's share of power generation stood at 4,917GWh in 2024, up by 19pc on the year — but its renewables share rose faster, by 51pc to 2,935GWh. Equinor has maintained its target of 30mn-50mn t/yr of CO2 storage by 2035. Equinor trimmed 600,000 t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from its absolute scope 1 and 2 — or operational — emissions over 2023-4. Scope 1 and 2 emissions from its operated production stood at 11mn t/CO2e in 2024. The company's upstream carbon intensity fell to 6.2kg CO2/boe in 2024, down by 7.5pc on the year. Equinor will buy back $5bn of shares in 2025, having bought $6bn in 2024. It completed the fourth $1.6bn tranche of its 2024 programme on 14 January and will launch the first tranche — of up to $1.2bn — of its 2025 programme on 6 February. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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