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US ethanol exports rise to record in 1H

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels
  • 06/08/24

US ethanol exports climbed to a record high in the first half of the year, driven by strong domestic production and foreign demand.

US ethanol exports averaged 125,600 b/d in January-June, up by a third from the same period last year and 2.2pc higher than the previous first-half record set in 2018, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data going back to 2012.

Exports would set a full-year record if the pace is maintained through the end of 2024. US ethanol producers like Green Plains and ADM have said they are confident that robust exports will extend through the end of the year.

Robust domestic production has fed the rise in US exports, with output averaging 1.03mn b/d through June, the third highest rate through the first six months behind 2018 and 2019, according to EIA data dating to 2010. January-June output would also rank third on an annualized basis.

Low prices for corn, the main feedstock for US ethanol, have incentivized higher production by boosting margins. Front month CBOT corn futures this year have averaged 439¢/bushel, down by nearly a third from 2023, as prices near pre-2021 levels when they averaged less than $4/bushel for six consecutive years. Participants are expecting a record or near-record US corn yield this year, pressuring the domestic corn market.

Canada and the UK consistently combine for nearly half of US ethanol exports, with Asian markets emerging as key destinations for US ethanol. Asian markets combined for a 19pc share of US exports in the first half, compared with a 10pc share in the same period a year earlier.

US exports to Asia-Pacific in the first half more than doubled from the same period last year to around 24,000 b/d as countries in the region raise ethanol fuel blend rates. India is steadily increasing its fuel ethanol blends, with a goal of 20pc by 2025, helping nearly double first-half receipts of US ethanol to 13,100 b/d.

Exports to the UK have also nearly doubled to 16,300 b/d, as the country can take advantage of favorable trade economics into the rest of Europe in addition to meeting demand from its own fuel blending mandates.

US ethanol imports remain relatively small, averaging 183 b/d in the first half, up from 19 b/d in the same period last year. Nearly all undenatured ethanol imports for fuel use arrive from Brazil, with the country's sugarcane-based ethanol used as feedstock at LanzaJet's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Georgia.

US ethanol exports may continue to rise in the coming months and years as the growing SAF market provides new demand pathways for ethanol.


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07/10/24

Fossil fuel cars phase-out comes up again in Brussels

Fossil fuel cars phase-out comes up again in Brussels

Brussels, 7 October (Argus) — The European parliament will this week debate a "crisis" facing the EU's automotive industry which could lead to "potential" plant closures, putting discussions on already-decided CO2 standards for vehicles on the forefront. Members have faced increased efforts by industry arguing for or against speedy review of the EU's regulation on CO2 emission standards for cars and vans. The regulation sets a 2035 phase-out target for new fossil fuel cars. The European commission is expected to give a statement to parliament, but a spokesperson told Argus that any change to the EU CO2 standards for cars and light vehicles would require a legal proposal by the commission to both parliament and EU member states. The priority, the spokesperson said, is on meeting 2025 targets for fleet CO2 reductions, agreed in 2019, but the commission is aware of "different opinions" in industry. Automakers association Acea has been calling for a "substantive and holistic" review of the CO2 regulation. The transition to zero-emission vehicles must be made "more manageable", assessing real-world progress against the ambition level. On the other hand, European power industry association Eurelectric today told members of parliament that bringing forward a review of the EU's regulation on CO2 standards for cars and vans to the start of 2025 would only encourage carmakers to hold off on making lower-priced and smaller electric vehicles (EV). The next CO2 target for car fleets is set to take effect in 2025. It requires a 15pc cut in emissions for newly registered cars. Some member states view the CO2 target cuts, and phase-out of the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035, as contentious. The regulation was only approved after a delay to normally formal approval. And parliament's largest centre-right EPP group is calling for a revision of CO2 standards for new cars to allow for alternative zero-emission fuels beyond 2035. As a counterweight to such pressure, Austrian, Belgian, Dutch and Irish ministers today called on commission president Ursula von der Leyen to step up EU action to push decarbonisation of company vehicles, notably light duty vehicles. "We need to consider action on the demand side in order to push zero-emission vehicles sales. Corporate fleets are the EU's most important market segment," the four ministers told von der Leyen. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind


04/10/24
04/10/24

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

New York, 4 October (Argus) — Tightening vessel carbon intensity indicator (CII) scores and looming 2025 FuelEU marine regulation are expected to raise biodiesel demand for bunkering, but non-competitive US prices should continue to weigh down on US bio-bunker demand. Houston B30, a blend of used cooking methyl ester (Ucome) and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), in September averaged at $821/t, a $45/t premium to B30 sold in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, and a $55/t premium to B24 sold in the west Mediterranean hub of Gibraltar and Algeciras (see chart) . Houston B30 was also priced at $115/t and $61/t premium to B24 sold in Singapore and Guangzhou, China, respectively. The price premium would continue to incentivize ship owners with global, ocean-going fleets to pick Asia first for their biodiesel bunker purchases, followed by northwest Europe and western Mediterranean. US demand for biodiesel for bunkering would continue to stagnate unless the US passes a legislation allowing Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program be used by ocean-going vessels fueling with biodiesel in US ports. The legislation could level US' price playing field. Two bipartisan bills were put forward in support of renewable fuel for ocean-going vessels, one in the US Senate this year and one in the US House of Representatives last year, but they are currently dead in the water. Conventional marine fuels are priced cheaper than biodiesel and green varieties of LNG, ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. But tightening International Maritime Organization (IMO) and EU regulations are forcing the hand of ship operators to consider green fuels to avoid hefty penalties and having their vessels suspended from trading. Ship owners whose vessels are outfitted with LNG-burning engines, are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025, as fossil LNG is currently ship owners' cheapest low-carbon fuel option. But retrofitting a vessel to burn LNG could range from $5-$35mn, depending on the size of the vessel. Biodiesel, a plug-and-play fuel that does not require a vessel retrofit, is the second cheapest low-carbon fuel option after fossil LNG. IMO's CII regulation came into force in January 2023 and requires vessels over 5,000 gt to report their carbon intensity, which is then scored from A to E. The scoring levels are lowered yearly by about 2pc, so even a vessel with no change in CII could drop from C to D in one year. If a vessel receives a D score three years in a row or E score in the previous year, the vessel owner must submit a corrective actions plan. E scoring vessels could be prohibited from entering some ports' territorial waters, but this penalty is yet to be imposed on any E vessels. In 2023, the IMO reported that 40pc of the vessels scored A or B, 27pc scored C, 19pc scored D or E and 14pc were unresponsive. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. It imposes a penalty of €2,400/t ($2,629/t) of VLSFO equivalent energy for vessel fleets exceeding its GHG limits. By Stefka Wechsler Biodiesel blends* Houston less global ports $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian tallow prices fall in October tenders


04/10/24
04/10/24

Australian tallow prices fall in October tenders

Sydney, 4 October (Argus) — Australian renderers have awarded their tallow tenders for October delivery to ports along the east coast at lower price levels compared to the previous month. Tenders for tallow with a maximum of 2pc free fatty acids (FFA) were awarded between A$1,320-1,350/t ($904-$924) dap for October supplies, down from around A$1,400/t in September. Argus assessed Australian east coast tallow between $939-960/t (A$1,370-1,400/t) on a fob basis. Australian renderers mostly offer their tallow in monthly tenders for delivery throughout the following month to shore tanks at Brisbane and Melbourne ports, with tenders awarded during the last week of each month. Buyers in Singapore and the US primarily import Australian tallow for use as a feedstock for biofuels production. The lower Australian tallow values are because of weaker tallow prices in the US Gulf, which have fallen by over $100/t from a peak in July, market participants said. Argus last assessed maximum 4pc FFA bleached fancy tallow delivered to the US Gulf coast at $1,009/t on 3 October. Australian tallow prices are also a function of international traders' logistics costs and vessel availability. Traders bid at elevated levels for September tenders because they had vessels on the way to Australia to collect volumes accumulated throughout the month. US renewable feedstock usage hovered close to all-time high levels in July . Tallow was the most-used waste feedstock for biofuel production in July, reaching 9,752 t/d, representing a year-on-year of 81.3pc. By Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US light vehicle sales surged in September


03/10/24
03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Etanol: Mercado quer importar 150.000m³ de anidro


03/10/24
03/10/24

Etanol: Mercado quer importar 150.000m³ de anidro

Sao Paulo, 3 October (Argus) — Grandes grupos produtores estão vendo uma janela de oportunidade para importar até 150.000m³ de etanol anidro para o Nordeste nos próximos meses – uma possibilidade que fica mais atrativa para empresas que desfrutam de regimes fiscais de isenção de imposto de importação. O mercado especula sobre envios escalonados de volume até março de 2025, a maior parte com origem no Golfo americano. Os preços do etanol dos Estados Unidos tendem a cair nesse período, que é marcado por uma queda na demanda de combustíveis. São meses também marcados pela entressafra da cana-de-açúcar no Centro-Sul brasileiro, o que tende a dar sustentação aos preços na região. Atualmente, as usinas do Nordeste não estão produzindo tanto anidro, que é mais caro de se fabricar que o hidratado e tem remunerado menos em comparação. Em 2023, a região produziu 1,07 milhão de m³ de anidro ante um consumo de 2,5 milhões de m³ – o que representa um déficit de 1,43 milhão de m³. Neste ano, de janeiro a agosto, a produção nordestina foi de 321.000m³ e o consumo somou 1,7 milhão de m³, um déficit de 1,3 milhão de m³, segundo dados da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Se uma empresa precisar buscar o anidro faltante para atender aos contratos de venda no Nordeste, a lógica é que pode ser vantajoso trazê-lo de fora do país em vez de originá-lo no Centro-Sul, em função da curva de preços descendente do etanol norte-americano nos próximos meses. O anidro do Golfo norte-americano colocado em portos do Nordeste do Brasil hoje é cotado a R$2.946/m³ e, com base na curva futura, pode chegar a R$ 2.565/m³ sem os tributos federais PIS e Cofins e sem imposto de importação em janeiro de 2025. Em comparação, o índice Argus para o anidro em Suape, Pernambuco, ficou em R$ 3.027/m³ também sem impostos na última sexta-feira. A questão tributária é um ponto chave, porque empresas envolvidas na importação do produto usam um mecanismo de compensação fiscal que as exime do pagamento da taxa de 18pc sobre importações. Trata-se do drawback, mecanismo que prevê a isenção de tributos sobre importações de insumos a serem usados na fabricação de produtos para exportação. Não é simples justificar seu uso na comercialização de etanol, mas com ele uma companhia poderia importar o álcool norte-americano com a contrapartida de exportar o mesmo volume. Os Estados Unidos foram o principal fornecedor de etanol para o Brasil em 2024, sendo responsável por 71,5pc do volume total desembarcado no país, que somou 112.235m³ entre janeiro e agosto, de acordo com os dados do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (MDIC). O Paraguai ficou no segundo lugar, com 27,6pc do total, mas tem enfrentado entraves logísticos em função do baixo nível do rio Paraná, principal rota de escoamento do seu etanol. Por Maria Lígia Barros e Amance Boutin Arbitragem de importação de etanol, sem imposto R$/m³ Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

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