BZ Credits near 5 year high after 2023 blending

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Oil products, Petrochemicals
12/09/24

Higher volumes of ethylbenzene (EB) into gasoline blending a year ago has led to a credit shortage, pushing prices to their highest levels since March 2021.

In 2022 and 2023, US Gulf coast (USGC) naphtha inventories were long as US naphtha exports declined from 400,000-500,000b/d pre-pandemic to 100,000-200,000b/d.

Over the same span of time, refiners and blenders dropped excess naphtha, a sub-octane blendstock, into the gasoline pool. This blend of gasoline spurred demand for high-octane blendstocks like EB, toluene and mixed xylenes into gasoline blending.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires gasoline with benzene content above a certain threshold to be offset by a credit generated by refining compliant gasoline.

The elevated blending of EB exhausted the supply of benzene credits on the open market, which bled into 2024. Credits traded near 100¢/USG early in 2024 and rose to as high as 190¢/USG over the summer. Values now span buyer interest at 160¢/USG and seller interest at 190¢/USG.

The compliance deadline for benzene credit submission is set for 31 March 2025, in which refiners must mass-balance their production over a given year and either face a credit surplus for being over-compliant or a shortage and therefore will need to procure credits on the open market.

By Jake Caldwell and Matthew Cope

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14/03/25

Plastics Europe urges de-escalation in trade tensions

London, 14 March (Argus) — Industry association Plastics Europe has urged a de-escalation in ongoing trade tensions between the EU and the US, following the inclusion of polyethylene (PE) among products proposed by the European Commission for retaliatory tariffs. "The imposition of tariffs, particularly on industrial goods such as plastics, will disrupt supply chains, raise costs for businesses, and negatively impact consumers on both sides of the Atlantic," said Plastics Europe's managing director, Virginia Janssens, on 13 March. "We urge both the EU and U.S. to prioritise diplomatic solutions to avoid escalating trade tensions further." The European Commission on 12 March begun consultations on imposing countermeasures to US tariffs of 25pc on EU and other imports of steel, aluminium and related products. Other products include high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-density PE (LDPE) and linear LDPE (LLDPE), according to a European Commission document listing the products proposed for retaliatory tariffs. The European Commission did not publish the specific level of proposed tariffs, noting that a formal legal proposal will follow consultation with industry and member states. But a senior EU official noted that "25pc might be a good number". The retaliatory tariffs, if approved by EU member states, will be implemented from 13 April. The US is a key global supplier of PE, with exports totalling around 14.2mn t in 2024. PE exports from the US to the EU in 2024 stood at 2.1mn t, forming around 15pc of the export share. The EU is a net importer of HDPE and LLDPE. This week's developments caught many market participants by surprise. There was no immediate impact on prices as many participants opted for a wait-and-see approach. The European PE market has been grappling with an uncertain demand outlook given weak underlying economic conditions. An imposition of import tariffs could help support domestic European PE production, but there are widespread concerns of these resulting in higher prices for consumer goods and adversely affecting future demand prospects. And higher costs of inputs could further hurt competitiveness of European finished goods in the global markets. Plastics Europe called for "collaborative efforts to resolve this dispute in a manner that protects industry, jobs, and consumers in both the U.S. and Europe." By Sam Hashmi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Açúcar: Mudança tributária abre espaço diplomático

13/03/25

Açúcar: Mudança tributária abre espaço diplomático

Sao Paulo, 13 March (Argus) — A isenção das importações de açúcar no Brasil é avaliada como uma tentativa de demonstrar aos Estados Unidos disposição em realizar acordos comerciais com o país, após o governo norte-americano sinalizar a possibilidade de aumentar as tarifas sobre alguns produtos brasileiros . Ao retirar as tarifas sobre o açúcar, o Brasil abre espaço para negociar a possibilidade de manutenção das tarifas de etanol, de acordo com Renato Cunha, presidente da Associação dos Produtores de Açúcar, Etanol e Bioenergia das regiões Norte e Nordeste (NovaBio). Etanol e açúcar são mercados correlatos no Brasil e as negociações dos dois costumam estar interligadas. Ambos são derivados da cana-de-açúcar e a produção de um produto ocorre em detrimento do outro. O governo brasileiro anunciou em 6 de março a eliminação dos impostos para importações de itens considerados essenciais, como o açúcar, milho, azeite, café e óleo de soja, com o intuito de reduzir os preços dos alimentos, em meio à aceleração da inflação. No caso do açúcar, o efeito sobre a inflação tende a ser limitado. O Brasil – maior produtor e exportador mundial de açúcar – é autossuficiente na produção do adoçante e as importações representam volumes mínimos no mercado. O Brasil exportou cerca de 33,5 milhões de t em 2024, alta de 23,8pc em comparação com 2023, a partir de uma produção de 42,4 milhões de t na safra 2023-24, de acordo com a Unica. Vantagens competitivas do açúcar brasileiro Mesmo que a isenção de tarifas para importar açúcar – que antes eram de até 14pc – facilite a abertura de novos mercados e crie eventuais oportunidades para os consumidores brasileiros, o produto nacional ainda é mais barato, pelos custos de produção mais baixos em relação a outros países. Os custos para produzir açúcar no Brasil são de aproximadamente 15¢/lb (equivalente a R$1,92/kg), enquanto na Tailândia – segundo maior exportador de açúcar – eles estão próximos de 21,5¢/lb, segundo participantes de mercado. Na Índia e Austrália, terceiro e quarto maiores exportadores, os custos são de aproximadamente 22,4¢/lb e 18,3¢/lb, respectivamente. Para que haja uma redução efetiva dos preços do açúcar, é necessária uma revisão nos custos de toda a cadeia produtiva até as gôndolas do mercado, disse José Guilherme Nogueira, presidente da Organização de Associações de Produtores de Cana do Brasil (Orplana). Para Nogueira, é importante se atentar a fatores além da produção, como custos de frete e seguro, áreas passíveis de atuação do governo. Como a produção é suficiente para o consumo nacional e há um grande volume excedente, o açúcar brasileiro acaba sendo majoritariamente exportado, sem o mercado externo representar efetivamente uma concorrência para o consumidor brasileiro. O preço do açúcar cristal branco registrou uma média de R$155,3/ saca de 50kg em janeiro - ou $24,9/sc na paridade de exportação, com a cotação média do dólar norte-americano a R$6,02 – segundo o indicador do Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA/Esalq). Em janeiro de 2024, os preços no mercado nacional estavam R$145,04/sc, em média, e $29,5/sc, considerando uma taxa cambial média de R$4,91. Isso mostra que mesmo com o dólar mais alto neste ano, o mercado doméstico de açúcar segue remunerando mais que o mercado externo, em comparação com o mesmo período no ano passado. Por Maria Albuquerque Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

13/03/25

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

London, 13 March (Argus) — The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) has raised tariffs by 15pc on imports "across board", taking effect on 3 March, according to a document shown to Argus . The move comes as the independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery continues to capture domestic market share through aggressive price cuts, pushing imported gasoline below market value in the country. Sources said that Dangote cut ex-rack gasoline prices to 805 naira/litre (52¢/l) today, from between 818-833N/l. The rise in NPA tariffs may add on additional cost pressures onto trading houses shipping gasoline to Nigeria, potentially affecting price competitiveness against Dangote products further. The move would increase product and crude cargo import costs, according to market participants. But one shipping source said the impact would be marginal as current costs are "slim", while one west African crude trader noted that the tariffs would amount to a few cents per barrel and represent a minor rise in freight costs. Port dues in Nigeria are currently around 20¢/bl, the trader added. One shipping source expects oil products imports to continue to flow in, because demand is still there. Nigeria's NNPC previously said the country's gasoline demand is on average around 37,800 t/d. Over half of supplies come from imports, the country's downstream regulator NMDPRA said. According to another shipping source, Dangote supplied around 526,000t of gasoline in the country, making up over half of product supplied. The refinery also supplied 113,000t of gasoil — a third of total total volumes in the country — and half of Nigeria's jet at 28,000t. By George Maher-Bonnett and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

13/03/25

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

London, 13 March (Argus) — The uncertainty around US tariffs could weigh on demand for finished lubricant and base oil, trade body ILMA told Argus . US President Donald Trump has decreed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, a key import source for these materials used in auto manufacturing. The US sources about 70pc of its aluminium imports and around 23pc of its steel imports from its northern neighbour. ILMA chief executive Holly Alfano said the White House recognises that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs "creates a challenging business environment". "A slowdown in auto sales and production due to tariffs could lead to reduced demand for these products," Alfano told Argus. "Manufacturers may postpone investments or expansion plans due to unpredictable costs and market conditions," she said. "If vehicle prices rise due to increased production costs, consumer demand may decline, leading to further reductions in automotive output and associated lubricant consumption." Automotive vehicle production forecasts have fallen to 15.5mn in 2025 since the tariff announcement, down by 250,000 vehicles from the prior estimate by AutoForecast Solutions. This would put output broadly in line with 2024 , stifling growth in finished lubricant demand. US government data show car sales fell by 5pc in 2024, and finished lubricant sales dropped 6pc over the same period. Although lubricant sales are not entirely correlated with new car sales, Alfano noted the auto sector is "a significant consumer of finished lubricants". As it stands the tariffs on steel and aluminium will not now be implemented until 2 April. The White House has said this is to "allow for the flow of parts and sub assembly products into America, to allow American car manufacturers to continue building cars." The US administration is scheduled to host Canadian and Ontario officials today to discuss a possible easing in tariffs. If these talks yield no progress, and if a month is insufficient for supply chains to be reorganised, the tariffs could stunt automotive manufacturing and in turn lubricants needed for these new vehicles. Ontario premier Doug Ford has cautioned the 25pc tariffs could halt the auto manufacturing industry in as little as 10 days. While the US is self-sufficient in terms of its Group II base oils, it is a net importer of Group III, with only 4pc nameplate capacity, and both are key to automotive lubricant production. The US is an importer of Canadian Group III base oils from Petro-Canada's 4,000 b/d plant in Mississauga, Ontario. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в Казахстане в марте выросла

13/03/25

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в Казахстане в марте выросла

Riga, 13 March (Argus) — Ставка экспортной пошлины на нефть в Казахстане в марте увеличилась до $78/т с $77/т — в феврале. Среднее значение котировок сорта Kebco (cif Аугуста) и Североморского датированного в период мониторинга цен с 20 декабря по 20 февраля составило $78/барр. по сравнению с $77/барр. — в период предыдущего мониторинга, по данным министерства финансов Казахстана. С сентября 2023 г. ежемесячная ставка пошлины на экспорт нефти и нефтепродуктов в Казахстане меняется при изменении средней мировой цены на $1/барр. вместо прежних $5/барр. в пределах диапазона $25—105/барр. При средней рыночной цене нефти $25—105/барр. размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины рассчитывается по следующей формуле: ВТП=Ср*К, где ВТП — размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины на нефть и нефтепродукты в долларах США за тонну; Ср — средняя рыночная цена нефти за предшествующий период; К — поправочный коэффициент 1. При значении средней рыночной цены на нефть до $25/барр. размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины равен нулю. При цене свыше $105/барр. применяются ставки вывозной пошлины в диапазоне от $115/т до $236/т. Средняя рыночная цена определяется министерством финансов Казахстана ежемесячно на основании мониторинга котировок Kebco и Североморского датированного в течение двух предыдущих месяцев. Полученный результат мониторинга в соответствии с поправками математически округляется до целого числа. ________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических материалов о рынках нефти и нефтепродуктов стран Каспийского региона и Центральной Азии — в еженедельном отчете Argus Рынок Каспия . Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

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