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US data center growth effect on coal may be limited

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity
  • 24/10/24

The US coal industry is pondering ways to respond to the projected boost in domestic power demand linked to planned data centers in the pipeline, but the centers' effect on coal could be mixed or limited.

A number of projects have been announced for coming years. But generators are still grappling with uncertain estimates of which major projects in the US will come to fruition, where they will be located and other criteria that will drive demand.

"Data center companies are shopping around in different utilities' territories and showing up multiple times and being double counted", said Laurie Williams, director of the Sierra Club's Beyond Coal Campaign.

According to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, there are more than 5,000 data centers currently in the US, and demand for data centers in the country is projected to grow by 9pc annually through 2030. Approximately 8-10 larger data centers could be developed across the US in coming years. A number of large-scale projects, which could include so-called 'big tech' — Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Facebook (Meta), and Microsoft — are going through the feasibility study phase, Argus sources said.

The Sierra Club is expecting electricity demand from data centers to increase anywhere between 5pc-20pc/yr. Some generators that spoke with Argus said they project growth of 9pc/yr, while an "organic" increase in electricity demand was previously expected to be 2pc-3pc.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) earlier this month projected commercial electricity sales would rise by 3pc this year and 1pc in 2025, helping to boost overall electricity generation.

"It is fair to say that the growth of commercial demand for electricity is at least due in part to the effect of data center development," said US Energy Information Administration (EIA) economist Jonathan Church. "We cannot, however, provide a precise estimate of what that effect is or what data center growth is."

So far this year, US coal-fired generation has fallen as lower-cost natural gas, nuclear and renewable generation maintained or expanded their leads over coal in the generation mix. EIA expects coal-fired generation to fall in 2024 and edge higher in 2025.

A number of factors still need to come together before more certain projections of data centers' impact on the US coal industry are released, market participants said. Those include state environmental goals and federal regulations, availability of overall energy infrastructure and different generation types, and the approach that the IT sector will pursue when planning new projects.

At least some IT companies are favoring lower-CO2 emitting generation. For example, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet recently have signed agreements to use nuclear or renewable generation for some projects. Other developers have indicated wanting to buy generation from wholesale electricity markets.

In addition, US utilities continue to retire coal units to comply with US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules. The amount of coal-fired generating capacity available in the US is expected to shrink to 163.7GW by the end of 2025 from 177GW in 2023, according to EIA.

Longer life for coal plants?

But some in the electric power industry are concerned about enough generating capacity being available to meet expected load growth because, in some cases, new generating facilities need to be built to provide the amount of power needed.

"With the level of demand increasing, all energy resource consumption will increase," Utah Office of Energy Development acting director Dusty Monks said. "It is not out of the realm of possibility to say these industries (data centers and AI) will surpass the energy use of traditional customers in the next 10-15 years".

Some generators that project increased electricity demand driven by data centers have proposed extending the operation of their coal plants. Limited natural gas pipeline infrastructure in some regions and mine-mouth power plants also support increased coal consumption to some extent.

Alliant Energy delayed the coal-to-gas conversion of a Wisconsin plant by three years to 2028. Duke Energy may put off some coal-fired power plant unit retirements in Indiana, with the intention of burning coal in the state until 2038.

Elsewhere in the US, companies representing up to 15GW of load — mostly data centers — are seeking service from American Electric Power by 2030.

Other utilities are continuing to convert coal-fired facilities to natural gas instead of retiring them. While the EPA has rolled out rules for gas plant emissions, gas units may still be more competitive financially and technologically over coal since gas prices have been lower and new gas units generally are more efficient when used as a backup to intermittent renewable energy. Even power plants in Utah, which traditionally favored coal, generated nearly the same amount of power from gas and coal over the first seven months of 2024 (see chart).

US coal producers are paying close attention to plans for data centers and possible effects on coal demand but are still scaling back output. US coal mines' output totaled 591.5mn st (536.6mn metric tonnes) this year through 12 October, down by nearly 13pc from the same period in 2023, according to EIA data.

Some of the states with the greatest growth in commercial electricity demand still have relatively large amounts of coal-fired generation, the EIA data show. But many of these states are also natural gas generation hubs.

This includes Virginia and Texas, which had an outsized share of commercial generation growth last year.

The fate and plans of data center projects in the pipeline as well as economics, regulation and company preference will determine the outcome for coal generation.

Generation in selected states, January-July 2023-24MWh
Coal-fired generationGas-fired generationRenewablesTotal
States20242023202420232024202320242023
Arizona5,593,2836,228,90728,916,43327,939,45810,905,9039,452,57064,588,78462,083,941
% of total8.7%10%44.8%45.0%16.9%15.2%
Georgia10,887,2418,828,63834,824,57735,144,5867,318,8826,552,34283,496,20273,139,216
% of total13%12.1%42%48.1%8.8%9.0%
North Dakota13,382,05912,873,0171,242,1381,267,1759,657,0149,606,92724,336,70123,816,246
% of total55%54.1%5.1%5.3%39.7%40.3%
Ohio17,756,48916,619,60748,526,51344,227,6234,370,9822,709,43481,756,36273,249,449
% of total22%22.7%59%60.4%5.3%3.7%
Oklahoma3,142,1292,855,13927,714,09325,662,25825,081,02823,054,48156,121,79051,712,526
% of total5.6%5.5%49%49.6%44.7%44.6%
South Carolina9,885,9018,792,04912,670,28613,811,0183,254,3623,198,20559,528,87858,292,079
% of total16.6%15.1%21.3%23.7%5.5%5.5%
Texas34,791,19439,405,356160,458,170154,904,39399,240,55690,277,178319,162,821310,039,675
% of total10.9%12.7%50%50.0%31.1%29.1%
Utah6,954,2338,802,6716,720,4816,762,0463,452,9743,331,94018,090,48019,499,948
% of total38.4%45.1%37%34.7%19.1%17.1%
Virginia1,190,771990,25735,852,01528,696,5474,885,2614,143,97059,761,59052,708,332
% of total2.0%1.9%60%54.4%8.2%7.9%
Wyoming13,486,43716,573,7412,756,7751,141,7966,258,3595,759,27222,786,92823,743,769
% of total59.2%69.8%12%5%27.5%24.3%

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09/12/24

Australia’s QPM to buy Moranbah gas-fired power station

Australia’s QPM to buy Moranbah gas-fired power station

Sydney, 9 December (Argus) — Australian independent QPM Energy will buy the 12.8MW gas-fired Moranbah power station (MPS) as the firm pivots from battery materials to being a central Queensland-focused gas developer. Carbon Logica signed an agreement to acquire the power plant from Sustainable Energy Infrastructure, owned by infrastructure management firm Whitehelm Capital, for A$10.5mn ($6.7mn), QPM said on 9 December. QPM will then lease the facility from Australian mining services firm Carbon Logica, before it takes ownership of the plant. The sale will settle over a four-year period, with operations and maintenance to be conducted by QPM, which will also receive all MPS' electricity sales. QPM also owns the 64 TJ/d (1.74mn m³/d) Moranbah gas project. QPM renamed itself from Queensland Pacific Metals last month, and in April announced it would cut spending on its Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub project which aims to produce 16,000 t/yr of nickel and 1,750 t/yr of cobalt sulphates from imported laterite ore, citing the slumping global nickel price. The company is seeking to increase waste gas production from the Bowen basin's coal mines to 35 TJ/d by late 2024, up from October-December 2023's 28 TJ/d. Coal mines captured under Australia's greenhouse emissions reduction laws must reduce methane gas flaring under stricter laws to be imposed from 1 July 2025. QPM signed a revenue-sharing deal for excess power generated from Thai-owned Ratch Australia's Townsville Power Station (TPS) on 4 December. The 10-year agreement begins on 1 July next year and will cover revenue from the plant above QPM gas supply levels of 12 TJ/d, with operating costs for TPS and the 108 TJ/d North Queensland gas pipeline to be recovered first. Gas peaking plants can generate significant profits as Australia's electricity markets transition supply from thermal to renewable generators, particularly during the evening peak when wholesale spot electricity market prices can soar above A$1,000/MWh. QPM wants to develop 300MW of new gas-fired power generation at its Moranbah project, because of the state government's policy for an additional 3GW of new gas-fired generation as it retires coal-fired plants in the coming years. Only 2.2GW of the presently installed 2.9GW of capacity is being dispatched, mainly owing to a lack of domestic gas supply, QPM said on 14 November. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes


06/12/24
06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Denmark's wind tender flop linked to H2 network doubts


06/12/24
06/12/24

Denmark's wind tender flop linked to H2 network doubts

London, 6 December (Argus) — Denmark's failure to attract bids in an offshore wind tender was partly caused by the country's lack of firm commitment to a hydrogen pipeline network, according to Danish and European hydrogen associations. For Denmark's hydrogen industry the failed tender is raising concerns that Copenhagen might resort to state aid for offshore wind, which could jeopardise renewable hydrogen production that is compliant with EU rules. Denmark unsuccessfully offered three areas totalling 3GW in a first part of the auction that ended on 5 December, and will offer another 3GW in a second part ending in April 2025. The "very disappointing" result will now be investigated by the Danish Energy Agency to discover why market participants failed to bid, energy minister Lars Aagaard said. Wind project developers may have worried that low electricity prices in an increasingly saturated power market and inadequate export routes — either via power cables or as hydrogen via pipeline — would deny a return on investments, industry participants said. Ample offshore wind potential could allow Denmark to generate power far in excess of its own needs. But in order to capitalise on this the country would need to find a way of getting the energy to demand markets. Turning offshore wind into renewable hydrogen for export was "a very attractive solution" for developers, Hydrogen Europe chief policy officer Daniel Fraile said, but would rely on timely construction of a network "all the way from the coast to Germany's hydrogen-hungry industry." Denmark's hydrogen network was recently pushed back to 2031-32 from an initial 2028, partly because of an impasse over funding that provoked anger from industry. The government has said it will only help fund the hydrogen transport network if there are sufficient capacity bookings guaranteeing its use. But this approach increases risks for developers, according to Fraile. "You need to handle the risk of winning the offshore tender, finding a hydrogen offtaker in Germany and commit to inject a large amount of hydrogen over several years. Then deliver the project on time and on cost," he said. "This is a hell of an undertaking." Industry association Hydrogen Denmark's chief executive Tejs Laustsen Jensen agreed, calling the failed tender "a gigantic setback". "The uncertainty about the hydrogen infrastructure has simply made the investment too uncertain for offshore wind developers," he said. "Now the task for politicians is to untie this Gordian knot." "Of course, the tender must now be re-run, but if the state does not guarantee in that process the establishment of hydrogen infrastructure, we risk ending up in the same place again," he said. The booking requirement as a prerequisite for funding the network "must be completely removed," Jensen said. Green energy association Green Power Denmark said "there is still considerable uncertainty about the feasibility of selling electricity in the form of hydrogen," but pointed to other factors that may have led to the tender failing to attract bids. Wind turbines and raw materials have become more expensive because of inflation while interest rates have risen sharply, reducing the viability of such projects, the group's chief executive Kristian Jensen said. Unlike some other countries, Denmark does not intend to fund grid connections or provide other subsidies, he said. Unwanted help Hydrogen Denmark's Jensen warned against the government resorting to subsidies to help get offshore wind farms built. "State support for offshore wind would be the death knell" for the hydrogen sector and would "de facto kill all possibilities for a green hydrogen adventure in Denmark," he said. Granting state support for offshore wind farms would mean these assets would not comply with the additionality requirement of the EU's definition for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), which are effectively renewable hydrogen and derivatives. EU rules state renewable assets are only considered 'additional' if they have "not received support in the form of operating aid or investment aid," although financial support for grid connections is exempt from this. "If state aid is provided for the offshore wind that is to be used to produce the hydrogen, we will lose the RFNBO stamp, and the Danish hydrogen cannot be used to meet the green EU ambitions for, among other things, industry and transport, and the business case is thus destroyed," Jensen said. By Aidan Lea and Stefan Krumpelmann Geographical divisions of Denmark's H2 network plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill


06/12/24
06/12/24

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

Houston, 6 December (Argus) — A US House of Representatives committee has approved a bipartisan bill that authorizes improvements to navigation channels by the Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and maintenance and dredging of river and port infrastructure projects. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) after several months of political wrangling to integrate earlier versions of the legislation approved by the House and Senate . The bill will head to the full House next week, said committee chairman Sam Graves (R-Missouri). This would be the sixth consecutive bipartisan WRDA bill since 2014 if passed by congress. WRDA is a biennial bill that authorizes the Corps to continue working on projects to improve waterways, including port updates, flood protection and supply chain management. WRDA will also "reduce cumbersome red tape", which will allow for quicker project turnarounds, Graves said. The bill authorizes processes to streamline work, he said. The bill also adjusts the primary cost-sharing mechanism for funding for lock and dam construction and major rehabilitation projects. The US Treasury Department's general fund will pay 75pc of costs, up from 65pc, with the rest coming from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is funded by a barge diesel fuel tax. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK fuel mix disclosure ‘no longer fit for purpose’


05/12/24
05/12/24

UK fuel mix disclosure ‘no longer fit for purpose’

London, 5 December (Argus) — UK company Smartest Energy presented a paper at today's RECS-led UK Rego Day seminar in London, calling for urgent reform of the electricity certification scheme to support decarbonisation goals. Smartest Energy is calling for a shift to full production and consumption disclosure, with generators receiving a certificate of origin for every MWh they send into the grid — regardless of the fuel source. This would allow renewable and non-renewable generation to be tracked and enable consumers to make informed decisions, the paper argues. Another proposal is to gradually move away from the current methodology for fuel mix disclosure, which is based on annual matching — this system effectively means consumption within a specific timeframe can be matched to output in any other period during the disclosure year. The paper suggests an initial shift to quarterly matching, followed by monthly and daily matching. Closer temporal alignment would "encourage investment in grid development and deeper decarbonisation", according to Smartest Energy. It would also give a clearer picture of seasonal and daily energy demand and the physical reality of electricity flows. The paper suggests that more transparency is particularly important now that European guarantees of origin (GOOs) are no longer recognised in the UK, and while electricity continues to flow from the continent through interconnectors. Argus assessments for non-biomass Regos generated in the current compliance period 23 (CP23) — April 2024-March 2025 — averaged £4.19/MWh in November, while CP23 biomass was assessed at an average of £3.88/MWh. In Europe, full disclosure has already been implemented in Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Dutch GOOs tend to trade at a premium to the rest of the continent, with consumer preference for local certificates driving demand. France moved to monthly certificate matching at the beginning of 2021. By Giulio Bajona Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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