Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito were heavily defeated in the country's election on 27 October, and this is likely to leave the country's energy policy in limbo, especially for nuclear power.
The LDP's first defeat in 15 years means no single party holds the majority of seats to govern parliament now. Forming a fresh alliance, if not a coalition government, would be essential for any party, but depending on who teams up with whom, the country's energy policy could deviate from its present course, especially because of the parties' different approaches to nuclear power policy.
The LDP and Komeito together won 215 seats, falling short of the 233 seats needed to hold the majority and take control of parliament. The LDP is now faced with the choice of seeking other parties to join its coalition, or to remain as a minority in the government. Komeito could also face challenges in establishing a new structure, as Keiichi Ishii, the leader of the party, was defeated in the election.
"We have to take the outcome seriously," said Shigeru Ishiba, the current prime minister and the LDP's governor, indicating he intends to take immediate action for political reforms.
But the LDP's weakened position may make it difficult to push for its pro-nuclear energy policy to ensure the country's energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation as part of its 2050 net zero emissions goal.
The second-largest opposition party with 38 seats, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), also called Ishin, holds a similar stance on nuclear policy as the LDP. But it is unwilling to align itself with the current coalition government, because of distrust against the LDP resulting from a political fund scandal that was part of the reason for the current political turmoil within the LDP. JIP is not planning to form a coalition with any parties, said its leader Nobuyuki Baba.
The Democratic Party for the People, also named Kokumin, which quadrupled its number of seats to 28, has also promoted the use of domestic nuclear and renewable power sources. Forming an alliance with Kokumin may keep the LDP's nuclear power policy in place. But Kokumin's leader Yuichiro Tamaki has also declined to form a coalition with the LDP and Komeito, although he said that co-operating on a specific agenda could be possible.
The biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), which won 148 seats, will step up efforts to co-operate with other opposition parties to change the government, according to the party leader Yoshihiko Noda. Noda served as prime minister of Japan and president of the then democratic party of Japan from September 2011 to December 2012.
The CDPJ pledged in its manifesto to not build a new nuclear fleet or expand capacity, while pushing for a swift phase-out of existing reactors. The party aims to cut Japan's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by more than 55pc by 2030 against 2013 levels, and ensure carbon neutrality by 2050, while lifting the share of renewable energy in its power mix to 50pc by 2030 and 100pc by 2050.
The climate goal by the CDPJ is ambitious compared with the LDP's strategies so far. Japan's strategic energy plan, which was updated by the LDP-led government in 2021 and is now under review, targets a 46pc reduction in the country's GHG emissions by the April 2030 to March 2031 fiscal year from its 2013-14 level, in line with its goal to have net zero emissions by 2050. The 2030-31 target assumes Japan relies on thermal generation for 41pc of its electricity demand, along with a 36-38pc share for renewables, 20-22pc nuclear power and 1pc hydrogen and ammonia.
A special diet session is scheduled to be held before 26 November to appoint the new prime minister. Following the LDP's defeat, it remains unclear if Ishiba, who was just sworn in on 1 October, will be re-elected despite his willingness to hold onto power.
