ExxonMobil and Chevron are pumping record volumes from the prolific Permian shale basin, spurred on by efficiency gains that have helped drive US oil production to a record high, just as Opec+ gears up to release barrels into the market.
ExxonMobil posted Permian output in excess of 1.4mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the third quarter, bolstered by the closure of its $60bn acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May. Meanwhile, Chevron's production from the top-performing US shale basin set a new company high of 950,000 boe/d, surpassing expectations and putting it firmly on track to reach a goal of 1mn boe/d next year.
Robust results from the Permian, which straddles west Texas and southeast New Mexico, have also been reported by other operators, with leading US upstream independent ConocoPhillips lifting its full-year production outlook after achieving record results from the Lower 48 in the latest quarter. In fact, soaring output from the Permian helped to push overall US production up by 1.5pc to a record 13.4mn b/d in August, according to the Energy Information Administration.
ExxonMobil, which will release a new development plan for the Permian at an analyst event next month, already envisages greater savings from the Pioneer acquisition than the original $2bn/yr that was outlined when the deal was announced. The top US major is integrating Pioneer's water infrastructure network to serve the combined assets at a lower cost. It is also taking advantage of a remote logistics operations centre it inherited through the deal. "We just achieved an all-time Pioneer record for drilling performance in terms of lateral feet drilled per day," chief executive Darren Woods says. A stellar performance from Colorado assets acquired through last year's takeover of PDC Energy also lifted Chevron, as did recent US Gulf of Mexico start-ups.
ExxonMobil was the only major, apart from Shell, able to cut net debt in the third quarter. That suggests its $20bn annual share buyback plan is sustainable in the current climate without needing to resort to asset sales, HSBC noted. The Permian's outperformance, driven by productivity gains that are helping to bring down costs, bodes well for the US majors at a time of macroeconomic uncertainty, and concerns over an oversupplied market putting oil prices under pressure.
While both ExxonMobil and Chevron have ramped up investor returns, analysts say Chevron's share buyback programme could be more vulnerable unless crude prices rebound. But Chevron's Permian spending is set to peak this year, with free cash flow becoming "more of the driver" in 2025 as output reaches a plateau, according to chief executive Mike Wirth. Chevron set a goal of trimming costs by $2bn-3bn by the end of 2026. And ExxonMobil says its $15bn cost savings target by 2027 remains on course, and could even be exceeded.
Less stress over Hess
Growing oil production abroad is set to enhance the US majors' record output at home. Although ExxonMobil's output from Guyana slipped in the third quarter because of work to complete a gas-to-energy project, it has since recovered."Execution is undoubtedly strong, allowing Exxon to maximise value from its assets," HSBC's head of European oil and gas research, Kim Fustier, says.
Chevron's closely watched expansion programme in Kazakhstan remains on track to start operations in the first half of 2025. This should help to offset some gloom over Chevron stock caused by the delay to its $53bn purchase of US independent Hess. A dispute with ExxonMobil over rights of first refusal to an offshore discovery in Guyana will be settled by international arbitration next May. "Uncertainty over the Hess deal will continue to hover in the background for some time, but Chevron is doing well on the elements it can control," Fustier says.
