Vastly different dynamics are expected for the western and eastern US sulphuric acid markets in 2025.
Lower output from producers in the western US and Canada will keep supply constrained for much of 2025, likely driving west coast US sulphuric acid imports higher during the year. But balanced dynamics will keep the southeastern US and Gulf coast markets competitive, shielding both regions from the global market dynamics.
Deliveries of sulphuric acid to the US west coast from January-October of 2024 climbed by 35pc on the year to 188,700t, according to US Census data,making up for lower-than-expected output from producers, which squeezed availability throughout the region. The closure of Simplot's Lathrop, California, sulphur burner at the beginning of 2024 had already reduced baseline supply on the US west coast.
Market sources expect output at Teck's Trail Operations in British Columbia, Canada, to be reduced through at least the first half of 2025 because of technical issues with the facility's electrolytic zinc plant following a fire in late September. Sources said that less volumes were available from the company's western Canadian facility during annual contract negotiations this year as a result. In its third quarter earnings release Teck reduced outlook for 2024 zinc production from its Trail Operations facility by 13.3pc as a result of the fire at the plant, but has not provided guidance for byproduct acid production or zinc production in 2025.
In Utah, lower output from Rio Tinto's 1mn t/yr Kennecott smelter is expected to continue into 2025. Reduced copper ore quality has contributed to lower copper concentrate production from the facility. The company is expected to continue to purchase copper concentrate from a third-party supplier to support smelter utilization.
Balance rules in the east
But in the eastern US, steady output from domestic producers has matched, and sometimes outpaced, demand in the region. This trend has kept prices relatively steady and spot import demand reduced from previous levels.
Despite a 6.3pc year to year increase to total US sulphuric acid imports during January-October to 2.9mn t,the bulk of the increase came from higher volumes of spot imports into Houston, Texas, according to US Census data. Deliveries to other major ports in the US Gulf and east coast sank by 28pc.
Deliveries of sulphuric acid into the port of Houston from January-October jumped to 264,200t, more than doubling the 115,100t arriving during the same period in 2023.
Sulphuric acid imports to other ports in the Gulf coast and east coast fell significantly from January-October, dropping by 28pc to 359,800t compared with 497,900t during the same time in 2023. Spot trade into the US Gulf coast and southeast has been quiet for much of the year, aside from consistent spot shipments into Houston.
Market participants expect the balanced nature of the market to continue through much of 2025, reducing the need for imports on contract and spot basis. Prices in a tightly-suppliedglobal merchant market remain largely uneconomic for US-based distributors. The imbalanced relationship of prices in the US and the merchant market has kept bids far from offers, slowing spot trade into the Gulf coast and southeast.
