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Lula approves offshore wind law with vetoes

  • Spanish Market: Electricity
  • 13/01/25

Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva approved legislation that will clear the way to develop the offshore wind industry, while vetoing three items supporting fossil fuel-fired power projects.

The new law establishes a regulatory framework for the sector, clearing the way for Brazil to hold its first auctions for offshore wind concessions.

The law positions Brazil to become a leader in offshore wind development, according to Matheus Noronha, the head of offshore wind at the Brazilian wind power association Abeeolica.

Amid strong lobbying from large energy consumers, industry associations and environmentalists, Lula vetoed three articles that had been tied to the bill. These articles would have mandated the construction of new gas-fired thermoelectric plants, extended power purchase agreements (PPAs) for coal plants until 2050 and required PPAs for small hydroelectric plants. Energy research firm PSR estimated that these three amendments would have raised annual electricity prices for consumers by 9pc by adding cost of around R22bn/yr ($3.6bn/yr) .

Brazil is on the radar of wind power developers and companies have submitted over 100 projects with roughly 245GW of capacity to environmental watchdog Ibama for approval.


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31/01/25

DeepSeek undermines AI power demand forecasts

DeepSeek undermines AI power demand forecasts

Gas and power suppliers predicting an AI demand boom hope that greater efficiencies could still underpin their plans through wider use, writes Julian Hast New York, 31 January (Argus) — Unexpected efficiency achievements by Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) firm DeepSeek have cast a shadow over a bullish narrative on booming US electricity demand in the coming decade to power data centres running AI software. Share prices for US independent power producers, natural gas producers and gas pipeline companies fell sharply at the beginning of the week as investors feared DeepSeek's achievement implied significantly less electricity might ultimately be needed to run and train AI models than has been expected. This greater efficiency "calls into question the significant electric demand projections for the US", as the investment case for independent power producers and integrated utilities is "dependent on data centres", US bank Jefferies says. DeepSeek's apparent ability to achieve comparable results to some major US AI companies using far less computing power — and so far less electricity — may also be bad news for what is widely expected to be the main fuel source to generate incremental power for AI this decade — natural gas. EQT, a leading US gas producer, has called growing power demand from planned data centres the "cornerstone" to its "natural gas bull case". Large US gas pipeline companies such as Williams, operator of the Transcontinental pipeline, have also touted recent forecasts showing surging demand for gas-fired power, as greater gas generation would require greater pipeline capacity to move those incremental volumes from wellhead to generator. Even the US oil majors are getting in on the act. Chevron announced this week a team-up with investment firm Engine No 1 and energy firm GE Vernova to build gas-fired generation plants to power data centres. DeepSeek's achievement could even cast doubt on the investment case for nuclear power, which has been recast as a silver bullet for US technology giants looking to secure zero-emission electricity to enable AI development. Revise the revisions? News of DeepSeek's efficiency achievements are a shock to prevailing expectations for surging US power demand in the coming decade, when those expectations have already been substantially revised over the past year, following decades of stagnant power demand. PJM, the largest US grid operator, on 24 January released a report showing significant upward revisions in its peak seasonal power demand projections. Peak summer power demand in PJM's territory in the mid-Atlantic was projected to surge to 210GW in 2035 and 229GW in 2045, substantially steeper than PJM's load forecast just one year earlier, which showed peak summer power demand rising to 177GW in 2034 and 191GW in 2039. Consultancy firm McKinsey recently forecast US data centre power demand to reach 606TWh by 2030, up from 147TWh in 2023. Under this scenario, data centres at the end of the decade would comprise 12pc of total US power demand. If efficiency gains in AI reduce power demand as much as some investors fear, those big forecasts might require big revisions. But efficiency improvements can go two ways — they can reduce demand for fuel, or simply increase output. In the case of AI, more efficient operations could be exploited to accelerate the development of more powerful models — using the same amount of power that was previously expected, but to greater effect. That latter explanation is why, "despite uncertainties", data analytics firm FactSet's head of power markets Matthew Hoza tells Argus he remains "bullish" on power demand growth in the coming years. "With AI's increasing integration into company tech stacks and its growing presence in daily life through AI agents, we anticipate continued growth in AI adoption and the resulting power needs," Hoza says. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EIB's transition, climate finance hit €50.7bn in 2024


30/01/25
30/01/25

EIB's transition, climate finance hit €50.7bn in 2024

London, 30 January (Argus) — The European Investment Bank (EIB) lifted its finance for the energy transition, climate action and environmental sustainability to a record €50.7bn ($52.8bn) in 2024 — 57pc of the bank's total financing last year. The EIB lifted its "green" financing by 14pc on the year . The bank signed €88.8bn in new financing in 2024, with the majority — €68.2bn — going to EU members. The projects financed in 2024 are expected to result in 21GWh of renewable power generation, as well as 107,370km of installed or upgraded power lines, the EIB said. The bank has an existing target for more than 50pc of its total annual financing to go to climate action and environmental sustainability by 2025. It surpassed this goal in 2021, 2022 and 2023, with 51pc, 58pc and 60pc, respectively, going towards climate action in those years. The EIB also aims to support €1 trillion of climate and sustainability investment by 2030 and remains "well on track" to reach this goal, it said. The EIB is the EU's lending arm, owned by EU member states. It is classed as a multilateral development bank (MDB). Countries often call on MDBs to do more to address climate change, as the institutions have significant leveraging power. The bank expects to lift its signed financing to €95bn this year, with plans to support renewable energy, grids and interconnectors, green hydrogen and storage and reduced emissions in heavy industry. "Far-reaching technological changes, the increasing costs of climate change and demand for more investment in defence, housing and global needs are the expected focus for 2025 to 2027," the EIB said today. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK sets out '1.5°C-aligned' climate plan to 2035


30/01/25
30/01/25

UK sets out '1.5°C-aligned' climate plan to 2035

London, 30 January (Argus) — The UK has released its third national climate plan, reiterating its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals, and to its 2035 target of an 81pc cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, from 1990 levels. UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced the 2035 target at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in November last year. Countries and jurisdictions that are signatories to the Paris climate agreement commit to submitting new national climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — every five years, to UN climate body the UNFCCC. The agreement includes a ratchet mechanism, whereby climate targets should become more ambitious over time. Today's NDC — the UK's third — covers 2031-35. The document consolidates plans already in place, and flags upcoming strategies. The government plans for "clean sources" of power to make up 95pc of the country's generation by 2030, cutting carbon intensity of electricity generation to "well below" 50g CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per kWh in 2030. Carbon intensity was 171g CO2e/kWh in 2023. And the plan notes that the UK was the first G7 country to shut down all coal-fired power , closing its last plant in September 2024. The government has pledged "an initial" £3.4bn ($4.24bn) towards decarbonising heat and improving household energy efficiency over the next three years, and will introduce the delayed clean heat market mechanism in April. The scheme will require boiler manufacturers to ensure a proportion of their sales are "low carbon options". The plan sets out the government's manifesto pledge to phase out sales of new cars "relying solely on internal combustion engines" by 2030, and notes that it will consult on issuing no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields. The government also promises "an updated cross-economy plan to meet our climate targets in due course", as well as a new industrial decarbonisation strategy by 2026. The NDC is in line with advice from the UK's independent advisory Climate Change Committee , and with the country's legally binding sixth carbon budget. The latter includes international aviation and shipping emissions, although NDCs do not require this. The UK's third NDC is "a credible contribution towards limiting warming to 1.5 °C and it sits within a range of Paris-consistent equity metrics", the government said. The Paris accord seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. The country's Labour government, which took power in July last year, has repeatedly underlined its commitment to the UK's legally binding target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050. The plan took some direction from the outcome of Cop 28 , in December 2023. Countries agreed at Cop 28 to transition away from fossil fuels and to treble renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW by 2030. The NDC also underlined the UK's commitment to spending £11.6bn in international climate finance over April 2021-March 2026, and will outline future climate finance plans in its spring 2026 spending review. UK international climate finance over April 2011-March 2024 reduced or avoided 105mn t of GHG emissions, the government said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: UK’s biomethane RGGO auction to add transparency


30/01/25
30/01/25

Q&A: UK’s biomethane RGGO auction to add transparency

London, 30 January (Argus) — The UK's first independent biomethane renewable gas guarantees of origin (RGGO) auction is due to take place on 5 February. It will be run by UK auction provider E-power, which currently runs auctions for power purchase agreement (PPAs), renewable obligation certificates (ROCs) and renewable energy guarantees of origin (Regos). Argus spoke to E-power managing director Melanie Reay about the new auction. Edited highlights follow: UK biomethane producer Future Biogas is providing the certificates for the auction, how did this partnership come about? Future Biogas contacted us in May following a conference in Glasgow, and was keen to develop a platform to sell its RGGOs. Since then, we have been working on what the platform would look like and testing it so that it will be ready for the first auction next week. What types of buyers are you expecting to participate in the auctions? We have invited buyers from our ROCs and Regos auctions, a lot of which have come on board. And we have also been provided with a list of customers that Future Biogas has dealt with in the past. Anyone who wants can take part in the auction, they just need to sign a registration form, which binds them for any bids they make in the auction. We are expecting a lot more interest over the next few days, especially once we have published the list of what lots are in the auction. We have already got some registration forms from international buyers. A lot of Rego buyers are international so they are used to our auction platform and were keen to sign up to this RGGO auction as well. For those familiar with E-power's Rego, ROC and power auctions, will there be any key differences in how the RGGO auction is run? No, the auction platform has been designed off the back of the Rego auction, so everything that is in the sale will be in specific lots and you will be able to see what technology the RGGOs come from and when they were produced. This is the first auction so I would not expect it to have lots of certificates. The platform is quite adaptable, so if there is some functionality that we have missed we can adapt it for future auctions. How do you see this auction affecting the UK RGGO market? It will make the market a bit more transparent, because if you are logged on you can see what other people are bidding. Future Biogas will set the reserve prices for all the lots, so it will decide where to start the prices in the auction. At the moment, no one is publishing or declaring what they are selling and for what prices. D o you hope the UK will move closer to using the auction model more often? There are definitely a lot a benefits to an auction model, rather than [trading happening] behind the scenes. To be transparent about where the certificates are trading helps sellers know what the certificates are worth. Buyers are not paying a fee [to take part in the auction], whereas with the broker model a fee would be paid by the seller and the buyer. With our auction platform, only the seller has fees. What volumes and types of biomethane will be available in the auction? We do not know at this point in time, but Future Biogas will be providing a mixture from a few different sites. Prior to the auction, all the lots will be held in the E-power RGGO account so buyers will be able to see an extract from that. Will you hold more auctions after the first one on 5 February? Yes. Since we started talking to Future Biogas, we have had enquiries from other sellers, so hopefully we will be able to roll this out to other sellers. We have also had enquiries from trading companies that would like to use the platform to sell as well as buy. By Emma Tribe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Proven tech focus of 2024 transition investment: BNEF


30/01/25
30/01/25

Proven tech focus of 2024 transition investment: BNEF

London, 30 January (Argus) — Global energy transition investment rose to record levels in 2024, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) says in a report published today, but growth was centred on proven technologies and the amount put into emerging sectors declined. Overall investment in the energy transition reached almost $2.1 trillion last year, BNEF says, an increase of 11pc from 2023 and the highest ever. But the increase was markedly smaller than the 24-29pc annual growth recorded over the previous three years. And investment needs to rise to $5.6 trillion/yr in 2025-30, and $7.6 trillion/yr in 2031-35, to align with achieving net zero emissions by mid-century, BNEF says. About 93pc of energy transition investment last year related to "proven, commercially scalable" technologies, BNEF says, resisting pressure from higher interest rates and policy decisions to rise by 14.7pc to $1.93 trillion. Of these, electrified transport attracted the most investment at $757bn, up by 20pc on the year, followed by renewable energy, up by 8pc to $728bn, and power grids, up by 15pc to $390bn. But investment in emerging technologies fell by 23pc on the year to $154bn. Carbon capture and storage investment halved to $6.1bn, as did clean industry investment to $27.8bn. And hydrogen investment declined by 42pc to $8.4bn. BNEF points to issues surrounding technology maturity, scalability and affordability as key hindrances in emerging sectors, flagging the need for public-private partnerships to derisk investment and encourage growth. The main regional sources of investment shifted in 2024, as mainland China increased its contribution by 20pc to $818bn, investing more than the principal 2023 growth drivers — the EU, US and UK — combined. EU investment fell to $381bn and the UK's to $65.3bn, while the US' held stable at $338bn. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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