Many government agencies expect a weaker La Nina weather pattern in Brazil — partially because of its delayed start — that could help reverse damages from a previous droughtand boost hydroelectric power generation.
La Nina conditions emerged a month later than expected, starting only in January, according to national meteorology institute Inmet. Its presence was confirmed by the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is 40pc likely to last until March-May.
Delayed La Nina conditions and its weaker effects on Brazil's climate may be linked to the global average temperature hitting an all-time high in 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization. La Nina conditions develop when the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler-than-average across the central and central-eastern regions. But global oceans have been running much warmer for more than a year, which could have delayed the phenomena, according to NOAA.
Its usually causes heavier rains in Brazil's northern and northeastern regions, while central-southern states experience drier weather and heatwaves.
Brazil, along with South America as a whole, has a history of droughts, agricultural losses, and higher ethanol prices in previous La Nina seasons, but the effects this year will be milder and potentially beneficial to industries in some regions.
Agriculture
Despite its conditions set to last throughout the first quarter of 2025, Brazil's 2024-25 crop is expected to hit a record 322.3mn metric tonnes (t), up from 297.8mn t in the previous crop, according to national supply company Conab.
Still, most forecasts rely on previous favorable conditions during the development of the 2024-25 crop.
The soybean crop is set to be 13pc higher than in 2023-24, reaching 166.33mn t. Corn also is expected to increase production, reaching 119.6mn, a 3.3pc rise from the previous crop.
But previous dry weather and low precipitation harmed center-southern sugarcane producers, which are responsible for 91pc of the national sugarcane output. The 2024-25 sugarcane crop is forecast to reach 678.7mn t, a 4.8pc decline from the previous season, according to Conab.
La Nina's conditions may recover some of the sugarcane crop this season. Northeastern sugarcane production, harmed by last year's drought, will face a period of heavy rains brought by the phenomenon in January. But the sugarcane crop is already projected to decline by 30pc from the previous crop regardless, according to northeastern sugarcane producers' association Unida.
The last time La Nina hit Brazil, in 2020-23, roughly 40pc of the main center-south sugarcane crop was at risk from dry weather.
Ethanol
Ethanol production is set to increase by 1.3pc in 2024-25 from the previous season, according to Conab.
Still, sugarcane ethanol is outlined to shrink by 2.8pc thanks to 2024's dry weather and wildfires in the southeast.
Electricity
La Nina's late arrival enabled the summer rainy period in Brazil.
The main hydroelectric reservoirs recovered from last year's drought and will end this month above half of their capacity, according to national grid operator ONS.
Regardless of La Nina's presence, most of the central-southern states are expected to have above-average rains in January-April, according to Inmet. Temperatures are also set to stay above the historical average in the central-western, southeastern, southern and northern states.