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Brazil to face weaker La Nina conditions

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Biomass, Electricity
  • 16/01/25

Many government agencies expect a weaker La Nina weather pattern in Brazil — partially because of its delayed start — that could help reverse damages from a previous droughtand boost hydroelectric power generation.

La Nina conditions emerged a month later than expected, starting only in January, according to national meteorology institute Inmet. Its presence was confirmed by the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is 40pc likely to last until March-May.

Delayed La Nina conditions and its weaker effects on Brazil's climate may be linked to the global average temperature hitting an all-time high in 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization. La Nina conditions develop when the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler-than-average across the central and central-eastern regions. But global oceans have been running much warmer for more than a year, which could have delayed the phenomena, according to NOAA.

Its usually causes heavier rains in Brazil's northern and northeastern regions, while central-southern states experience drier weather and heatwaves.

Brazil, along with South America as a whole, has a history of droughts, agricultural losses, and higher ethanol prices in previous La Nina seasons, but the effects this year will be milder and potentially beneficial to industries in some regions.

Agriculture

Despite its conditions set to last throughout the first quarter of 2025, Brazil's 2024-25 crop is expected to hit a record 322.3mn metric tonnes (t), up from 297.8mn t in the previous crop, according to national supply company Conab.

Still, most forecasts rely on previous favorable conditions during the development of the 2024-25 crop.

The soybean crop is set to be 13pc higher than in 2023-24, reaching 166.33mn t. Corn also is expected to increase production, reaching 119.6mn, a 3.3pc rise from the previous crop.

But previous dry weather and low precipitation harmed center-southern sugarcane producers, which are responsible for 91pc of the national sugarcane output. The 2024-25 sugarcane crop is forecast to reach 678.7mn t, a 4.8pc decline from the previous season, according to Conab.

La Nina's conditions may recover some of the sugarcane crop this season. Northeastern sugarcane production, harmed by last year's drought, will face a period of heavy rains brought by the phenomenon in January. But the sugarcane crop is already projected to decline by 30pc from the previous crop regardless, according to northeastern sugarcane producers' association Unida.

The last time La Nina hit Brazil, in 2020-23, roughly 40pc of the main center-south sugarcane crop was at risk from dry weather.

Ethanol

Ethanol production is set to increase by 1.3pc in 2024-25 from the previous season, according to Conab.

Still, sugarcane ethanol is outlined to shrink by 2.8pc thanks to 2024's dry weather and wildfires in the southeast.

Electricity

La Nina's late arrival enabled the summer rainy period in Brazil.

The main hydroelectric reservoirs recovered from last year's drought and will end this month above half of their capacity, according to national grid operator ONS.

Regardless of La Nina's presence, most of the central-southern states are expected to have above-average rains in January-April, according to Inmet. Temperatures are also set to stay above the historical average in the central-western, southeastern, southern and northern states.


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13/02/25

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol

New York, 13 February (Argus) — Brazil's growing ethanol industry is a likely target for "reciprocal" US tariffs that President Donald Trump plans to impose on products from countries that he says discriminate against US imports. In announcing the plan Thursday to raise US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on US exports, Trump did not specify which countries and products would face the new levies. But a White House fact sheet specifically mentions Brazil's treatment of US ethanol as an unfair practice worth addressing. "The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5pc. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18pc," the White House said. The US produces more ethanol than any other country, almost all derived from corn. Brazil, the world's second largest ethanol producer, largely uses sugarcane as a feedstock but has a fast-growing corn ethanol industry, too. The disparity in tariff rates has long frustrated US producers, who have become reliant on export markets since ethanol's growth in the US is limited by rising vehicle fuel efficiency, electric vehicle adoption and regulatory constraints on higher blends. The US exported more than 1.9bn USG of ethanol last year according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an all-time high. Renewable Fuels Association general counsel Ed Hubbard told Argus last week that his organization raised the issue of Brazilian tariffs with Trump transition staffers, and the office of senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he discussed the same at a recent meeting with Jamieson Greer, Trump's nominee to be US trade representative. Greer said at a recent Senate hearing that Brazil's tariff on US ethanol was among his top priorities. Federal agencies are planning to review trade disparities and report back by 1 April, potentially giving countries like Brazil some time to consider policy changes that might avoid tariffs. Hubbard said he sees the threat of tariffs as a tool to bring Brazil back to the negotiating table on reducing its own restrictions, potentially allowing more US ethanol to enter the country and meet increasingly ambitious national targets for biofuel adoption. At the same time, Brazil could negotiate for changes to US trade barriers, such as a tariff rate quota system for sugar imports and a new 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. If the US does ultimately increase taxes on Brazilian ethanol, trade flows might not change much in the near term. Ethanol trade between the two countries has already dropped off significantly, and the US is oversupplied with renewable fuels used to meet federal blend mandates. While essentially all foreign ethanol in the US is from Brazil, the US imported less fuel ethanol in 2024 than in at least 30 years. But new tariffs would hurt LanzaJet, a US biofuel producer with a plant that imports Brazilian ethanol and refines it into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the company says it can and does use other feedstocks, federal and state clean fuel programs treat Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as lower-carbon. LanzaJet thus earns larger subsidies for producing fuel from sugarcane ethanol than if it used more corn ethanol, which is generally too carbon-intensive to qualify for a new US biofuel tax credit. "Tariffs impacting nascent industries like SAF will undoubtedly hurt the United States' potential to continue to lead in this space — limiting our ability to import necessary resources and export our own for the global market, given aviation is a global industry," LanzaJet vice president for corporate affairs Meg Whitty said. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River ice tops 5-year average


13/02/25
13/02/25

Upper Mississippi River ice tops 5-year average

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Ice measurements taken Wednesday to gauge when barges can transit the upper Mississippi River exceeded the five-year average, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The annual Lake Pepin ice reports — taken by the Corps in February and March at Lake Pepin south of Minneapolis — are a bellwether for when barge transit can resume on the upper Mississippi River. This year's first report found ice at the lake was 19in thick on 12 February, 8in thicker than last year's measurement and 3in above the five-year average. The Corps' initial report last year found only 11in of ice at the lake, thin enough for waterborne traffic to break through. Subsequent reports were cancelled after the Corps said it would be too hazardous for crews and equipment to take additional measurements. Locks along the upper Mississippi River are anticipated to remain closed through 3 March, the Rock Island Corps district in Illinois said on 5 February. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update


13/02/25
13/02/25

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump. Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures. The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said. The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said. Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down." The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ACBL sets release dates for Illinois River lock


13/02/25
13/02/25

ACBL sets release dates for Illinois River lock

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) has issued its earliest release dates for Illinois River barges planning to transit the Lockport Lock, which closed for maintenance last month. Release dates will be from 23 February through 19 March for barges expecting to pass through the Lockport Lock over the spring season, ACBL said Wednesday. The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) expects to reopen the Lockport Lock on 25 March, the Corps said when it announced the closure . The Corps closed the lock on 28 January to install new vertical lift gates and make repairs. The closure has cut off major trade hubs such as Chicago, Illinois, and Burns Harbor, Indiana, from Illinois River barge transportation. Lock 27 and the Mel Price Lock above St Louis will remain partially closed through 1 April, as they are also undergoing maintenance by the Corps, ACBL said. The barge line acknowledged higher demurrage rates were likely for those who loaded barges prior to the released dates. Initial transit on the Illinois River is also anticipated to have a significant backlog in the spring months. By Meghan Yoyotte ACBL's Illinois River release dates Origin Port Barges destined above Lockport Lock, on IL River Mobile, AL 25 Feb Houston, TX 23 Feb Weeks Island, LA 26 Feb New Orleans, LA 3 Mar Pittsburgh, PA 2 Mar Cincinnati, OH 5 Mar Decatur, AL 10 Mar Memphis, TN 10 Mar Evanscille, IN 12 Mar Cairo, IL 16 Mar St Louis, MO 19 Mar — ACBL Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs


13/02/25
13/02/25

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. Trump's trade advisers previously cited Brazil's tariff on US-sourced ethanol, which is higher than the US customs duty on ethanol, as an example of the disparity they would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. Trump's directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. The intent of the order is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, the Trump administration is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. "Last year, US-based companies paid foreign governments $370bn in taxes," White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said today. "Meanwhile, foreign companies paid the US $57bn in taxes. Are we supposed to keep doing that because of some economic model that doesn't have the whole real world in it?" The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. He set a deadline of 1 April for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods" — a review that likely will result in additional tariffs later this year against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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