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Brazil to face weaker La Nina conditions

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Biomass, Electricity
  • 16/01/25

Many government agencies expect a weaker La Nina weather pattern in Brazil — partially because of its delayed start — that could help reverse damages from a previous droughtand boost hydroelectric power generation.

La Nina conditions emerged a month later than expected, starting only in January, according to national meteorology institute Inmet. Its presence was confirmed by the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is 40pc likely to last until March-May.

Delayed La Nina conditions and its weaker effects on Brazil's climate may be linked to the global average temperature hitting an all-time high in 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization. La Nina conditions develop when the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler-than-average across the central and central-eastern regions. But global oceans have been running much warmer for more than a year, which could have delayed the phenomena, according to NOAA.

Its usually causes heavier rains in Brazil's northern and northeastern regions, while central-southern states experience drier weather and heatwaves.

Brazil, along with South America as a whole, has a history of droughts, agricultural losses, and higher ethanol prices in previous La Nina seasons, but the effects this year will be milder and potentially beneficial to industries in some regions.

Agriculture

Despite its conditions set to last throughout the first quarter of 2025, Brazil's 2024-25 crop is expected to hit a record 322.3mn metric tonnes (t), up from 297.8mn t in the previous crop, according to national supply company Conab.

Still, most forecasts rely on previous favorable conditions during the development of the 2024-25 crop.

The soybean crop is set to be 13pc higher than in 2023-24, reaching 166.33mn t. Corn also is expected to increase production, reaching 119.6mn, a 3.3pc rise from the previous crop.

But previous dry weather and low precipitation harmed center-southern sugarcane producers, which are responsible for 91pc of the national sugarcane output. The 2024-25 sugarcane crop is forecast to reach 678.7mn t, a 4.8pc decline from the previous season, according to Conab.

La Nina's conditions may recover some of the sugarcane crop this season. Northeastern sugarcane production, harmed by last year's drought, will face a period of heavy rains brought by the phenomenon in January. But the sugarcane crop is already projected to decline by 30pc from the previous crop regardless, according to northeastern sugarcane producers' association Unida.

The last time La Nina hit Brazil, in 2020-23, roughly 40pc of the main center-south sugarcane crop was at risk from dry weather.

Ethanol

Ethanol production is set to increase by 1.3pc in 2024-25 from the previous season, according to Conab.

Still, sugarcane ethanol is outlined to shrink by 2.8pc thanks to 2024's dry weather and wildfires in the southeast.

Electricity

La Nina's late arrival enabled the summer rainy period in Brazil.

The main hydroelectric reservoirs recovered from last year's drought and will end this month above half of their capacity, according to national grid operator ONS.

Regardless of La Nina's presence, most of the central-southern states are expected to have above-average rains in January-April, according to Inmet. Temperatures are also set to stay above the historical average in the central-western, southeastern, southern and northern states.


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12/11/25

Enhanced FT tech could drop SAF cost below HEFA: Aether

Enhanced FT tech could drop SAF cost below HEFA: Aether

Singapore, 12 November (Argus) — US-based climate technology firm Aether Fuels aims to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using its enhanced Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology at prices comparable to or lower than hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) product by 2030, founder and chief executive Conor Madigan told Argus in an interview. Madigan was speaking on the sidelines of an agreement signing ceremony on 11 November between Aether and Singapore-based energy and infrastructure provider Aster. This was to develop a next-generation SAF facility at Aster's refining and petrochemical complex on Singapore's Pulau Bukom. Named as Project Beacon, the plant will use Aether's Aurora™ technology to convert industrial waste gas and biomethane into Corsia-certified SAF, which achieves over 70pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to conventional jet fuel. The capital investment amount will be shared later. Construction at the plant is expected to begin in 2026. It will then be commissioned in 2027 and begin commercial operations in 2028, employing 24 full-time staff. Project Beacon is expected to produce up to 50 b/d of fuel — or 2,000t/year — by 2028, comprising 1,600t of SAF and 400t bio-naphtha. Aether had previously signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with Singapore Airlines in February and with US' JetBlue in September, for the airlines to potentially procure SAF produced. Other airlines have expressed interest as well, Madigan told reporters at a media briefing yesterday. Discussions with bio-naphtha buyers are still in early stages, but local demand for the product is expected. Aether also has plans for another SAF plant which can produce at least 1,000 b/d of fuel by 2030, Madigan added. The location is still being confirmed, but more details will likely be available in second-half of 2026 after Project Beacon is operational. With this larger plant, Aether expects to supply product at HEFA-SPK prices or below it and steadily bring the price down with subsequent plant development, Madigan said. "We expect to eventually get prices quite close to fossil fuel, although that also depends on factors slightly out of our control, including hydrogen and renewable power prices." The Argus fob Singapore SAF (class 2) price, netted back from ARA values, was at $2,892/t as of 11 November. This was over 3.5 times the fob Singapore jet/kerosine price at $745/t. Capex reduction, yield increases Madigan said that Aether's Aurora technology brings around a 50pc reduction in capital expenditure (capex) and a 20pc increase in yield, compared to existing FT SAF production technology. Capex is reduced through a few ways — one of which is reducing the amount of equipment from three to one via Aether's tri-converter. The syngas produced — comprising carbon monoxide, CO2 and hydrogen — is then input to the FT reactor. The reactor also runs on electricity rather than fuel combustion, which allows further cost reductions. Aether also has some "novel catalysts" whose robustness removes the need to get rid of certain feedstock contaminants like carbon monoxide, which contribute to cost savings too, Madigan told Argus . Actual reductions in monetary terms would vary depending on the exact feedstock used, he said. Madigan also sees an expansion in scale of FT plants from 2030 onwards, citing other plants at similar scale to Project Beacon in the US and Europe. FT likely essential with upcoming HEFA feedstock crunch "As the world electrifies and switches to more sustainable [energy] sources, industrial waste gas can become stranded and become waste streams that we can use," Madigan said. This will be essential, especially as HEFA feedstock supply tightens and prices rise, there also being less opportunities for HEFA technology costs to be reduced through innovation, as capex is less of a major driver for such plants. Regarding cover crops, Madigan noted immense challenges to change agricultural practices en-masse at existing agricultural lands, where cover crops are grown in rotation with — and generally insufficient capacity to meet the industry's full demand. Madigan also mentioned challenges around scaling up low-cost green hydrogen supply to produce SAF through the power-to-liquid pathway, also known as e-fuels. In comparison, feedstocks like biogas, industrial waste gas, or agricultural waste — which they can use— are much more abundant. And while biofuel plants running on the FT process generally need to be built near the producers of industrial waste gas or agricultural waste, this could support job creation for local communities associated with the additional collection and aggregation of such waste. "This is therefore a solution that can be one of the major long-term sources of sustainable fuel," Madigan said. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Age of electricity has arrived: IEA's Birol


12/11/25
News
12/11/25

Age of electricity has arrived: IEA's Birol

London, 12 November (Argus) — Global electricity demand grows much faster than overall energy use and renewables grow faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios of the latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) from energy watchdog the IEA. "Last year, we said the world was moving quickly into the age of electricity — and it's clear today that it has already arrived," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. The rise in electricity demand stems from households, for mobility, for cooling, and "increasingly for data and AI-related services", the IEA said. It sees power demand rise by around 40pc to 2035, from current levels, in two scenarios and by more than 50pc in the same timeframe across its Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 scenario. The growth in renewable energy deployment in all scenarios is led by solar power, the IEA said, and it envisages "a revival of fortunes for nuclear energy" across all scenarios, for large plants and small modular reactors. The lift in power consumption "is no longer limited to emerging and developing economies", Birol said, as electricity demand, driven by data centres and AI, is rising in advanced economies. Birol said the IEA estimates global investment in data centres to reach $580bn in 2025, which "surpasses the $540bn being spent on global oil supply." The IEA sets out three scenarios in its 2025 WEO, none of which are a forecast. The Current Policies Scenario (CPS) is based on policies and regulations already in place, the Stated Policies Scenario (Steps) looks at "a broader range of policies" including some that have been proposed but not formally adopted. The NZE scenario considers a path to reach the 2050 goal, in line with the Paris climate agreement, "while recognising that each country will have its own route." Global investment in electricity generation has jumped by almost 70pc since 2015, the IEA said. But it said annual spending on grids has risen at less than half that pace, with relatively slow investment, "slow permitting" and "tight markets" for some components holding back grid projects. The watchdog also warned of the energy sector's "need to prepare for the security risks brought by higher temperatures." The global rise in temperature in all scenarios exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels "on a regular basis by around 2030", the IEA said. The Paris agreement seeks to limit the rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above the pre-industrial average, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. Annual global energy-related CO2 emissions reached a record high of 38bn t in 2024 and remain around this level to 2050 in the IEA's CPS. The 2050 emissions level is 10bn t lower than the last time the IEA modelled it in 2019, the organisation said. CPS and Steps indicate a temperature rise of nearly 3°C and 2.5°C, respectively, in 2100. In the NZE, global warming "peaks around 2050 at about 1.65°C and declines slowly after that, largely due to active measures to remove CO2 from the atmosphere," the IEA said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australian harvest receivals slow with rains


12/11/25
News
12/11/25

Australian harvest receivals slow with rains

Sydney, 12 November (Argus) — Grain and oilseed deliveries to Australia's major bulk handlers have been slower so far this harvest partly due to wet weather, falling short of deliveries made in prior seasons. Total receivals into Australia's major bulk handlers — GrainCorp, CBH and Bunge (Viterra) — reached 6.2mn t as of around the start of this week, 3.5mn t lower than the 9.7mn t delivered at around the same period in the last winter crop harvest. Bulk handler grain receivals are a rough proxy for harvest pace in absence of official data. Harvest progress is picking up in Western Australia (WA), with weekly receivals into CBH sites rising by 1.2mn t in the week ending 9 November despite 5-25mm of rain falling across most crop regions mid-week, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology data show. Recent dry weather, which is forecast to continue for the remainder of the week, will likely prompt harvest pace to pick up in the state. Deliveries to GrainCorp's sites in New South Wales (NSW) were strong, increasing by almost 1mn t on the week, although rains interrupted some harvest deliveries, according to the company. The harvest in Queensland is winding down, but growers will likely have pushed to harvest as much as possible before heavier rains are expected to fall from 13 November and continue into next week, according to several meteorological models. In contrast, the harvest is yet to meaningfully start in southern crops, in part because these regions remain colder and some crops have yet to finish developing, according to one market participant. Deliveries to South Australia-based bulk handler Bunge (Viterra) and across GrainCorp's Victoria sites are below 107,000t as of around the start of the week compared to almost 3.5mn t received in GrainCorp sites in NSW and Queensland. By Edward Dunlop Australia 2025-26 harvest receivals '000t Total YTD* Previous report* ± CBH Albany 213 95 118 Esperance 947 654 293 Geraldton 582 238 344 Kwinana North 587 276 311 Kwinana South 276 99 177 Total 2,604 1,362 1,242 Graincorp Queensland 1,464 1,274 190 New South Wales 2,034 1,093 941 Victoria 46 22 24 Total 3,543 2,388 1,155 Bunge Western region 33 9 25 Central region 27 8 19 Eastern region 2 0 2 Total 61 17 45 Total - All 6,209 3,767 2,442 Receivals at same time last year ('000t) 9,732 Harvest pace vs last year (± '000t) -3,523 Total YTD is all grain receivals for the approximate October marketing year to the date of the most recent harvest report, 10 Nov for GrainCorp and week ending 9 Nov for Bunge and CBH. Previous report is the total receivals in the respective week prior. — CBH, Graincorp, Bunge, Viterra Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: US state efforts outweigh Trump stance - Newsom


11/11/25
News
11/11/25

Cop: US state efforts outweigh Trump stance - Newsom

Belem, 11 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's antagonism toward climate change policy should not cloud how the rest of the world views the US because many states are filling the void, California governor Gavin Newsom (D) said on Tuesday at the UN Cop 30 climate summit. Even as the Trump administration seeks to roll back many US climate and clean energy policies, states are stepping up with their own initiatives, Newsom said, citing his state's "cap and invest" and Low Carbon Fuel Standard programs. "I'm here because I don't want the United States of America to be a footnote at this conference. And I want you to know that we recognize our responsibility, and we recognize our opportunity," he said. Other countries should focus on state efforts that contrast what happens in Washington, DC, according to Newsom. "I don't want that to shape your perception of my country," he said. The governor has been a leading voice among Democrats against the Trump administration and has indicated he could run for president in 2028. But to succeed in the next election, Democrats "have some work to do" in how they talk to voters about climate change, Newsom said. "We have to change our language. We have to talk in terms that people understand," he said. That means instead of discussing the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a measurement many American voters may not understand, Democrats should instead focus on the economic side of climate change. Newsom pointed to California's success in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while still growing its economy, as well as estimates that the recent rollback of clean energy incentives enacted under former president Joe Biden will cost ratepayers more this year. "That's a kitchen table issue. That's a cost-of-living issue," he said. In terms of the global economy, the US is at risk of falling behind China in the clean energy and electric vehicle markets, according to Newsom. Trump "simply doesn't understand how enthusiastic President Xi [Jinping] is today that the Trump administration is nowhere to be found at Cop 30", he said. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Ukraine exports less grain on the week


11/11/25
News
11/11/25

Ukraine exports less grain on the week

London, 11 November (Argus) — Ukrainian grain exports decreased on the week on 3-9 November, according to weekly export data from the country's ministry of agriculture. The country exported 290,000t of wheat in the first week of November, down from 399,000t a week earlier. Its cumulative exports this marketing year have so far stayed below levels from a year earlier. Exports have been slowed at least in part by transport disruption in Ukraine as a result of Russian strikes on the country's energy and railway infrastructure. And strong competition from other major exporters also weighed on demand for Ukrainian wheat. Similarly, barley and corn exports have also slowed on the week. Ukraine exported 42,000t of barley on 3-9 November, down from 63,000t a week earlier. Its cumulative exports since the beginning of July have been behind 2023-24 levels, and now have fallen slightly below the level in marketing year 2022-23, despite having shipped more in the first four months of the season ( see graph ). Ukraine's corn exports fell to 290,000t in the first week of November, from 632,000t in the last week of October. Farmers have prioritised harvests of oilseeds because the crops are more vulnerable to wet weather than corn. And intermittent electricity supply has made drying the grain more difficult, further slowing harvesting. By Xiaoyi Deng Cumulative barley exports from Ukraine mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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