Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 16/01/25

Mexico's oil and gas-dependent states led state job losses in 2024, driven by a sharp contraction in spending by state-owned Pemex and the completion of the Olmeca refinery, according to energy market sources and state data, even as two-thirds of the country's states posted job growth.

Annually, the total employment in Mexico grew by 213,993 jobs in 2024, 67pc fewer than the 651,490 jobs added in 2023, according to the Mexican social security (IMSS) institute's tally of formal jobs, which have full benefits like better access to housing credits and public medical services. The deceleration in the number of jobs created last year adds to signals of a Mexican economy that was cooling as the year progressed, according to economists and energy market sources.

"In 2024, the second lowest generation of jobs in the last 15 years was recorded, only after 2020, the year in which the Covid-19 pandemic hit," according to a report from Mexican think tank Mexico Como Vamos.

Tabasco state, one of the most important for the energy sector in Mexico, led the reduction in employment among the 11 states that experienced job losses during 2024. Tabasco lost 28,675 jobs over the year, for a 12pc annual decline in employment in the state, according to IMSS data. Twenty-one states, including the capital, posted job growth.

Campeche, the state with the second biggest annual percentage of job losses, and Tamaulipas, the other state with a high dependence on the oil sector, also reported significant declines in 2024, with annual formal job losses of 5,952 and 3,120, representing 4pc and 1pc decreases from a year earlier, respectively.

These IMSS figures only account for formal jobs registered with the institute, which provide access to medical, pensions, and housing credits, and totaled 22.24mn as of December.

The official statistics agency Inegi counts employment nationwide at 59.5mn as of the third quarter last year. Inegi's count of employment includes the informal sector, made up of jobs without social security and other benefits. Inegi's estimates put the informal labor sector at over 54pc of all jobs.

According to IMSS, the country lost 405,259 jobs in December compared with November, the largest loss recorded for that month since 2000. Still, December is typically marked by heavy job losses because of seasonal adjustments. But last year the final month's tally was pulled even lower than normal by overall weak hiring over the year, Inegi said, even as total job growth was positive for the full year.

While the labor situation in Mexico worsened in 2024 because of the weakening of the national economy, including a sharp depreciation of the peso to the dollar, the decline has hit the states most closely tied to the oil and gas sector and Pemex spending, said Carlos Ramirez, founder of consultancy Integralia.

Tabasco hangover

"Tabasco benefited greatly from the investment poured into Pemex by the administration of AMLO (former president Juan Manuel Lopez Obrador), Ramirez said. "This is going to change now with the (Claudia) Sheinbaum administration, and the state will suffer a hangover as the new government reduces its support for the oil and gas industry."

Still, the national unemployment rate is low, at 2.6pc in November, according to Inegi. And the country added 361,000 jobs in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Inegi's broader base of data.

But the economy was slowing in the second half of 2024. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to an annual 1.6pc in the third quarter from 2.1pc in the second quarter, according to Inegi.

Inegi's IGAE, an index that tracks the real economy, showed that the Mexican economy contracted 0.73pc in October, as economists lowered growth estimates for the Mexican economy for this year.

Pemex chief executive Victor Rodriguez in early October implemented a 20pc cut to the company's upstream budget, aiming to save Ps26.78bn ($1.32bn). This decision, combined with delays in payments for contracts and a halt in new service agreements, severely impacted local companies in Tabasco and Campeche, according to oil services company association Amespac. Some companies announced layoffs as Pemex's financial constraints rippled through the supply chain.

Part of Tabasco's workforce reduction could also be tied to the near-completion of the 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, said Jesus Carrillo, an analyst at think tank IMCO. While the major construction phases have concluded, the facility remains in a testing phase, contrary to Pemex's previous promises of full operations in 2024.

Despite the recent downturn, heavy Pemex spending during the administration of former president Lopez Obrador made Tabasco the leading state in job creation between December 2018 and December 2024, Ramirez said.

But with the refinery now completed and Pemex projecting further budget cuts for 2025, analysts expect labor market challenges in oil-reliant states to persist.

By Édgar Sígler


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

11/02/25

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel, aluminum

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel, aluminum

Washington, 10 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today imposed a 25pc tariff on all US imports of steel and aluminum, although he said he would consider making an exemption for imports from Australia. In remarks to reporters at the White House Trump complained that many of the steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed since 2018 have been moderated or reduced for some countries. Currently Australia and Canada can export any steel and aluminum they want to into the US without tariffs, while Mexico can export steel melted and poured in the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement region into the US without tariffs, while any material with an origin outside of USMCA is subject to 25pc tariffs. "Our nation requires steel and aluminum to be made in America, not in foreign lands," Trump said. "It's 25pc without exceptions, and that's all countries, no matter where it comes from, all countries." But Trump, prompted by reporters, confirmed that he may make an exemption for Australian-sourced steel, after Canberra threatened to take reciprocal measures. "We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few," Trump said, referring to an overall trade surplus the US runs with Australia. "And the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes." Trump said he spoke with Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese earlier today. "I told him that [steel tariff exemptions] is something that we will give great consideration." A similar exemption for the UK is unlikely since the US already is running a trade deficit with that country, Trump said. Trump contended that his initial volley of tariffs in 2018 led to the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US and boosted economic growth. A 2019 study from the Federal Reserve Board that was updated in 2024 estimates that taking into account retaliatory tariffs, there was a net decrease in US jobs and economic growth from the tariffs. US oil and gas midstream companies were among the industries hit by the 2018 tariffs, which led to higher costs for pipeline steel. Most steel imports from non-tariffed US steel imports are heavily reliant on the countries that are currently not subject to US tariffs, with their volumes making up 80pc of the 26.2mn metric tonnes (t) of steel products imported in 2024, according to US Department of Commerce data. Steel tariff rate quota (TRQ) systems are in place for Argentina, Brazil, the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK for steel products, with specifics dependent on the country. The CME Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market jumped today, after Trump said on Sunday he would impose new tariffs, by $51/short ton (st) for March to $856/st, while April increased by $48/st to $858/st. Steel costs would rise by $6.38bn based on the $25.5bn value of 2024 steel imports from those nontariffed countries, if volumes remained the same. Those higher costs would lead to more US steel mill price increases, with one buyer expecting another round of price increases coming soon from US steelmakers. Steelmaker Nucor has increased its published hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot price by $40/short ton (st) in the last three weeks to $790/st. Other steelmakers like ArcelorMittal USA, Cleveland-Cliffs, and US Steel are at $800/st offers for their spot HRC. Canada key aluminum supplier In the aluminum market, the US imported over 6mn t of products in 2024, according to customs data. Canadian aluminum exporters currently have no restrictions on their volumes into the US. They shipped the highest volumes into the US and are responsible for an even larger share of primary aluminum imports. Current US primary aluminum smelting capacity, excluding idled operations, is around 795,000t/yr, which equaled less than one-third of Canadian imports and one-fifth of total imports. There are multiple idled primary aluminum facilities and a greenfield plant currently under construction, but observers and company representatives challenged the feasibility of idled plant restarts in the past. TRQ systems exist for US aluminum imports from Argentina, the EU, and the UK. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month


10/02/25
10/02/25

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month

London, 10 February (Argus) — Nigeria's privately-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery could reach maximum operating capacity within a month, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who said the plant touched 85pc of nameplate capacity at the end of January. The stated goal appears ambitious, with data from Kpler and Vortexa showing Dangote ran at an implied range of 395,000-430,000 b/d to date this month, which is between 61-66pc of capacity. The implied range was 350,000-400,000 b/d in January, or 54-62pc operating capacity. Argus pegged Dangote's crude receipts at 405,000 b/d in January, a record. Dangote runs may be boosted by upstream regulator NUPRC's decision in early February to ensure Nigeria's crude is supplied to meet domestic refinery demand, before it issues crude export permits. Routine maintenance at state-owned NNPC's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery could have made more domestic crude available for Dangote use. Crude allocations to Warri were cancelled and offered out to the wider market last week, according to a market participant. But this would have been a short-term measure, with a source saying the work at Warri was completed as of 9 February, and around 1.15mn bl of crude are scheduled to be pumped to the plant. Downstream regulator NMDPRA projected that Dangote will require 550,000 b/d of Nigerian crude grades for the period January–June 2025, while NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 125,000 b/d Warri plants will require 60,000 b/d and 75,000 b/d, respectively. Nigeria produced 1.51mn b/d of crude in January, according to Argus' estimate. Warri restarted at the end of 2024, having been offline since 2019. Diesel loadings from the refinery have averaged eight trucks per day, sources said last week, with sufficient supply available to sustain ongoing truck load-out operations. Warri has not started producing gasoline, according to sources. By George Maher-Bonnett, Adebiyi Olusolape and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January


10/02/25
10/02/25

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

Mexico City, 10 February (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices. This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 February survey. It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in December, marking five months of declines in the past six months. Mexican core inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc from 5.95pc the previous month. Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said Banorte. Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration. Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc. Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from 6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual inflation back above 4pc. The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual inflation the previous month. Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December. Monetary policy The January inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc. The 4-1 decision marked an acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts. In board comments with the announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic high. Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German heating oil demand surges as prices fall


10/02/25
10/02/25

German heating oil demand surges as prices fall

Hamburg, 10 February (Argus) — German consumers stocked up on heating oil in the first week of February as prices fell. Traded heating oil volumes reported to Argus jumped by almost a third on the week, and prices fell by almost €2/100l on average nationwide between 3 February and 6 February. Many consumers had held off from buying in the week before to see if prices would drop, traders said. Consumers were further spurred on by a drop in temperatures after a relatively mild January. Privately owned heating oil tanks nationwide reached their lowest level since the beginning of July on 6 February at just over 52pc, Argus MDX data show. Industrial diesel tanks were lower in January than in the previous five years. Diesel demand is still low, traders said. In the first six weeks of 2025, diesel volumes reported to Argus dropped marginally and imports have remained largely unprofitable. Production cuts in southern Germany have yet to lead to any significant product shortages, with domestic supply sufficient to cover demand. Both the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery in Bavaria and the Miro joint venture's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery continue to produce at reduced levels. They shut down portions of their production within days of each other because of technical problems. Production at Karlsruhe is not expected to return to normal levels until the beginning of March, a departure from the original schedule which saw production increase again in mid-February. Overall production is due to remain reduced in March even with the increase in Karlsruhe, however. The 125,000 b/d Vohburg site of the Vohburg-Neustadt refinery will be taken offline entirely for maintenance works, along with several units in the 90,000 b/d Neustadt site, which has yet to resume production after a fire on 17 January. OMV plans to take its 77,000 b/d Burghausen refinery in Bavaria offline for maintenance works at the end of March. The first of two permanent production cuts scheduled for 2025 will take place in March, when Shell will cease crude distillation at the Wesseling site of its 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery complex. The second permanent cut is due for the end of the year at BP's 258,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery in west Germany. BP said on 6 February it is seeking a buyer for the refinery, and said it will go ahead with the planned reduction in crude capacity nonetheless. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump


10/02/25
10/02/25

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump

London, 10 February (Argus) — A key meeting of Opec+ ministers last week effectively backed the alliance's current output policy, which would not see any production returned to market until April. Opec+ has not, for now at least, heeded US president Donald Trump's call for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil", something it could potentially do by raising output. As things stand, Opec+ members are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts from April, and it intends to do this over an 18-month period rather than a previously scheduled 12 months. When the group took that decision in December, the Opec secretariat said this was "to support market stability" — an implicit nod to the uncertain demand picture and projections of a looming supply surplus in 2025. There appears to be little chance of this being expedited by Trump's call, which he made within days of taking office in January. The producer group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) gave no indication that the alliance intends to change its output policy. But if anything, Trump's call could marginally increase the chances that the alliance finally pushes ahead with its plan to increase output in April — something it has delayed three times. This would have to fit with global supply and demand realities and the interests of the producer group. Opec+ continues to insist that it will only go ahead with the plan if market conditions allow. It is still far from clear whether there will be sufficient room in the market for added Opec+ output this year. One key uncertainty relates to Trump himself and the impact his tariff policies will have on the global economy. For now, the demand picture remains uncertain. Trump's threat to tighten sanctions on Iran and Russia could have a more direct impact on supply, but his plans remain vague. Opec+ delegates continue to monitor market conditions. A decision on whether to proceed with planned increases from April is due in early March. "We do not believe that Opec has the ability to bring back any barrels to the market through the whole of this year," data analytics firm Kpler head analyst Matt Smith said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Texas this week. "Anything that Saudi Arabia wants to bring back is only going to increase that surplus above what we saw in 2020, and we all know what happened to prices back then." He is not the only one who doubts there is sufficient room in the market for more Opec+ output. Energy watchdog the IEA continues to project a sizeable supply surplus this year, even in the absence of additional Opec+ production. Output reduction Opec+ members subject to targets reduced their collective crude output by 20,000 b/d to 33.51mn b/d in January, Argus estimates (see tables). This fall means Opec+ has slashed its production by 4.01mn b/d since October 2022, when it announced the first of its current round of cuts. Compliance has improved in recent months, with output 340,000 b/d below the collective target of 33.85mn b/d in January. There is still room for improvement. Iraq has slipped back into the red, exceeding its target by 20,000 b/d last month. Gabon was 80,000 b/d above its target. Kazakhstan's compliance has picked up recently, but the start of a new production phase at the Tengiz oil field has raised questions over its willingness to stick to its quota this year. But the group is keeping the pressure on. The statement following the JMMC meeting once again put a large emphasis on the importance of member conformity with production targets. It stressed the need for members that have exceeded their targets to fully deliver on their pledges to compensate for past overproduction. These must be delivered by the end of September. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Non-Opec 9 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 Total 33.51 33.53 33.85 -0.34 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jan Dec Jan target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.88 8.91 8.98 -0.10 Iraq 4.02 3.99 4.00 +0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.44 2.41 +0.01 UAE 2.87 2.85 2.91 -0.04 Algeria 0.90 0.91 0.91 -0.01 Nigeria 1.51 1.55 1.50 +0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.27 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.25 0.24 0.17 +0.08 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.07 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Iran 3.33 3.40 na na Libya 1.35 1.31 na na Venezuela 0.90 0.90 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.75 26.84 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Russia 8.96 8.97 8.98 -0.02 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.49 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.49 1.40 1.47 +0.02 Malaysia 0.28 0.33 0.40 -0.12 Bahrain 0.19 0.19 0.20 -0.01 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.06 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more