Norwegian renewables developer Scatec is pursuing opportunities in hydrogen production, particularly in the Middle East. The firm in 2023 quit a joint venture in Oman, but is progressing in Egypt and has secured an offtaker in Germany's state-backed H2Global auction initiative. Chief executive Terje Pilskog shared his views on the state of the hydrogen industry in the Middle East and the company's approach to near-term challenges. Edited highlights follow:
Has the outlook for renewable hydrogen shifted in the past 12-18 months?
There is more realism about the industry's growth rate, but the fundamentals haven't changed — green hydrogen is still important for decarbonising several industries. But clearly the pace is slower than expected and we must recognise there was some hype. In the end, securing offtake drives projects forward. Demand is moving significantly slower than what was assumed a couple of years ago. Delivery time for the first H2Global project is late 2027, and for larger projects towards 2030 is more realistic.
Why did Scatec exit Oman, which others consider the place to be?
Oman has the key requirements for producing green hydrogen and ammonia competitively, and its government has enabled development. But not much can happen, as most companies won't take final investment decisions (FIDs) without offtake deals. There's a lot of support from the authorities, but massive greenfield projects are complicated, with infrastructure for hydrogen, ammonia and shipping needed. When we pulled out of the project we were involved in, it was because we didn't see the demand coming. And we didn't feel comfortable with the timelines relative to when we expected to see demand coming in.
Why did Scatec advance its project in Egypt?
We've been in Egypt a long time and we are familiar with the country and the regulation. Egypt has mostly the same fundamentals as Oman, like available land and great renewable resources — even better wind conditions. Egypt is nicely located if green ammonia is used as marine fuel and because it is near Europe as an offtaker. The good thing about Egypt is its existing ammonia industry, with 3-4 large facilities. Our logic was that — because demand was coming slowly — in Egypt we could build incrementally at a scale that is possible to secure offtake. And the required investment would be lower because the ammonia export facility already has storage and port infrastructure. To be completely greenfield, you must target 700,000-1mn t/yr of green ammonia to be cost-competitive. Our joint project with Fertiglobe is for 70,000-75,000 t/yr — relatively small compared with the volumes people have talked about, but still of a size where it's possible to get offtake. The project secured an award from the H2Global tender last year, so now we are completing the FEED and financing, and we plan to reach FID in the first half of 2025. The capital costs are $0.5bn — not as much as everybody dreamed, but still sizeable. We are building 300MW of renewables and 100MW of electrolysis, so it's still going to be among the largest projects in 2027-28.
What are Scatec's priorities over the next 12-24 months?
We are developing a similar project at Damietta on the north coast of Egypt with Mopco and Echem that is 2-2.5 times larger. We have signed heads of terms with Yara and we aim to conclude the deal over the next 6-12 months so the project can move forward. We have focused very narrowly over the past two years to ensure these two projects succeed. We have been asked by countries to start development. It's the usual suspects, especially in north Africa. You have fundamentals for green hydrogen in Morocco, in Tunisia — countries that we know. Those are candidates. But my perspective is that the train, on a global basis, is not leaving the station. If we get to the FID stage on the first two projects, with the competence we are building we're going to have other opportunities. That does not mean that we wait until 2027 to do anything else, but it's clear what our first, second and third priorities are at this time.
Do you like the land allocation model of countries such as Oman and Morocco?
Each country has its own approach. From a developer's point of view, auctioning land is a bit challenging, as it adds costs, especially if you pay up-front. You might take two years before FID and a lot can happen in two years, so it's challenging to take on that exposure up-front. But it sets a certain standard in terms of who can participate, and if you want to attract the big guys, those are the ones that have the capability to go for that kind of opportunity. These are big projects, so it's important to screen a bit. But from my point of view, the key thing is creating the optimal framework for projects in your country. That's about making sure infrastructure is in place, things move quickly and projects are cost-competitive. It is a competition, as everybody in this region wants to become a green hydrogen hub.
What H2 infrastructure should the Middle East regionprioritise?
Port facilities — storage and loading. It can be bunkering facilities, if you believe it could be a significant fuel for the marine industry. Enabling production near ports is important. The other factor is electricity infrastructure. Our project in Egypt needs grid availability, but others operate in ‘island mode'. Many countries in the region need more renewable energy, and you can end up with hydrogen facilities competing with other initiatives. So thinking through how to provide stable renewable electricity is important. Investors need plans to be clear, predictable and actually implemented. Our experience in Egypt is good. The authorities are implementing structures and regulations that enable us to advance projects.
What is your biggest ask from governments?
What is holding back development today is not the possibility of doing projects. It's the demand side. As long as it is free to emit CO2, it will be difficult to close the gap between green and grey hydrogen. It might be wishful thinking, but a global price for emitting CO2 would be ideal. Regional CO2 pricing is helpful and creates demand in pockets. But it adds costs for that region, which — from a global competition perspective — is not good. Europe's H2Global mechanism is helpful to cover the difference. There might be other pockets, like dual-fuel engine ships that can run partly on clean fuels. Obviously, you need global regulation, as companies cannot move alone. But for end consumers, transporting a pair of sneakers on a ship that uses green ammonia adds insignificant cost. Wouldn't customers for Tesla cars want them transported to Europe in an environmentally-friendly way? And they aren't the most price-sensitive. So, while you cannot do it on a global basis, there are pockets where you can start.
How could the change of US administration impact hydrogen?
It's a bit difficult. President Trump will not do anything that hurts American business, and climate is far down on his list of priorities. He will support hydrogen to the extent that it benefits US companies to be at the forefront of an industry, but he will not implement specific things in the US. That puts the US hydrogen industry at a disadvantage relative to the rest of the world. He will not lead the change with the US in front.
