A global palm oil rally in 2024 improved affordability for Indonesian and Malaysian plantations, pushing up MOP and NPK imports in the countries to three-year highs in 2024.
Indonesia's MOP imports rose by about 44pc on the year to 3.44mn t, with increased deliveries from its key suppliers, according to the latest GTT data. Arrivals from Canada doubled to 1.26mn t from a year earlier. Imports from Russia and Belarus also increased to 1.2mn t and 245,000t, up by 42pc and 69pc respectively from a year earlier. Arrivals from Uzbekistan, likely representing product from Belarus, accounted for 406,500t, up by 23pc on the year.
NPK deliveries to Indonesia hit 370,800t in 2024, up by 6pc from a year earlier. Around 177,000t of the total imports were sourced from Russia, with 93,000t from Norway.
Malaysian MOP imports totalled 1.64mn t in 2024, close to a 20pc increase from 2023. Deliveries from its top supplier Russia reached a record high of 852,000t, up by about 56pc on the year. Arrivals from Canada were flat at 381,000t but imports from the US — which also represents Canadian product shipped from a US port — quadrupled to a 20-year high of 142,200t. The increase in deliveries from the US can be attributed to Canpotex's terminal in Portland, Oregon, resuming potash loadings at the start of 2024 after operations were halted in May 2023.
Malaysia's NPK imports rose by about 25pc to 166,500t in 2024, with significant rises in deliveries from its key exporting partners. Arrivals from China rose to 42,000t, up by nearly 35pc from a year earlier, while deliveries from the Netherlands nearly doubled to 28,200t.
Palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's top producer, is forecast to grow by nearly 2pc in 2025, according to a Reuters poll, in order to meet the growing demand for palm oil-based biodiesel with a planned increase in the mandatory mix of palm oil in biodiesel in the country in February. This is expected to boost demand for MOP and complex fertilizers, which should continue to support affordability in 2025.
The increase in the Indonesian biodiesel mandate is also likely to limit exports from the world's top producer and push Malaysian crude palm oil prices higher in 2025, after hitting a two-year high in 2024. Malaysia is the world's second largest palm oil producer. But adverse weather, persistent labour shortages and low replanting rates may limit production in 2025, officials said.
Malaysian MOP imports 2024 | (t) | |||||
Russia | Canada | United States | Jordan | Others | YTD | |
January | 45,001 | 59,090 | 27,500 | 4,705 | 4,845 | 141,141 |
February | 40,000 | 40,596 | 5,724 | 11,000 | 3,672 | 100,992 |
March | 67,946 | 27,495 | 16,000 | 2,462 | 6,603 | 120,506 |
April | 51,889 | 47,776 | 0 | 2,986 | 6,629 | 109,280 |
May | 37,804 | 38,000 | 17,018 | 21,208 | 38,649 | 152,679 |
June | 47,913 | 21,501 | 17,018 | 13,898 | 22,216 | 122,546 |
July | 100,586 | 21,979 | 0 | 2,007 | 3,570 | 128,142 |
August | 65,989 | 54,048 | 27,977 | 4,461 | 4,781 | 157,256 |
September | 90,780 | 15,987 | 0 | 6,316 | 4,285 | 117,368 |
October | 175,642 | 21,906 | 30,890 | 29,667 | 12,258 | 270,363 |
November | 56,476 | 38 | 68 | 3,005 | 9,273 | 68,860 |
December | 71,965 | 33,001 | 0 | 23,825 | 26,596 | 155,387 |
Total | 851,991 | 381,417 | 142,195 | 125,540 | 143,377 | 1,644,520 |
Source: GTT |
Indonesian MOP imports 2024 | (t) | |||||
Canada | Russia | Belarus | Laos | Others | YTD | |
January | 143,565 | 26,000 | 44,100 | 12,455 | 66,458 | 292,578 |
February | 85,968 | 85,577 | 27,508 | 9,930 | 60,391 | 269,374 |
March | 201,828 | 84,798 | 0 | 26,899 | 43,532 | 357,057 |
April | 76,856 | 115,897 | 10,000 | 12,203 | 52,943 | 267,899 |
May | 119,413 | 109,895 | 32,276 | 25,291 | 37,142 | 324,017 |
June | 110,924 | 77,980 | 7,995 | 13,846 | 2,655 | 213,400 |
July | 193,302 | 189,443 | 0 | 16,008 | 2,151 | 400,904 |
August | 139,323 | 98,408 | 19,676 | 34,092 | 105,874 | 397,373 |
September | 0 | 91,673 | 40,739 | 4,201 | 36,175 | 172,788 |
October | 46,427 | 120,395 | 16,700 | 17,658 | 53,071 | 254,251 |
November | 43,974 | 66,189 | 16,480 | 5,216 | 49,088 | 180,947 |
December | 96,907 | 132,418 | 29,453 | 9,989 | 41,237 | 310,004 |
Total | 1,258,487 | 1,198,673 | 244,927 | 187,788 | 550,717 | 3,440,592 |
Source: GTT |