Serbia aims to couple its day-ahead power market with the European market through its borders with Hungary and Bulgaria by the fourth quarter of 2026, but whether it will receive an exemption from the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) remains unclear, market operations specialist at Serbian electricity exchange Seepex Milos Mosurovic has told Argus.
The fourth quarter of 2026 is the first available time slot for EU-led regulatory body Energy Community constituent states to join the EU's single day-ahead coupling scheme and was assigned by the market coupling steering committee, Mosurovic said.
But market coupling is a prerequisite for exemption from the CBAM, which is planned to go into effect on 1 January 2026. Energy Community members previously agreed to the 2022 Electricity Integration Package, which would provide an exemption from the CBAM until 2030 if they coupled with the European market and met other requirements by 2026.
But Energy Community Secretariat director Artur Lorkowski recently said in an interview with Argus that Energy Community constituent states probably will not receive a CBAM exemption, as they have not achieved market coupling, which is a precondition for exemption. But Lorkowski did acknowledge that "greater clarity is needed" on specific criteria to determine when a third country may be considered to have ''an electricity market that is integrated with the union".
This lack of clarity, along with the procedural meetings, have created market uncertainty surrounding whether and how the CBAM could be applied to Energy Community constituent states. "All relevant participants in the energy sector are aware that [Energy Community] countries will not couple until [after] 1 January 2026," Mosurovic said. "This is why we do not know what to expect regarding the CBAM."
If the CBAM was applied to electricity flows, an EU emissions trading system (ETS) equivalent would be applied to Serbian electricity flows beginning on 1 January 2026.
The implementation of an EU ETS equivalent was deemed to be the most expensive of four models that could be introduced into the Energy Community region, as it would lead to an increase of 13-29pc more than the baseline scenario calculated on the electricity market as of July last year, an Energy Community ministerial council report published in December shows. The four proposed models are a regional ETS, a fixed-price ETS, a carbon tax and integration into the existing EU ETS. The final option was ranked the lowest for feasibility from a legal and technical standpoint.
And the method of the application of the CBAM to electricity flows has not been revealed. According to an Energy Community report from October, it is not possible to separate electricity exports from transit flows based on currently available data, and therefore it is possible that both export and transit volumes will be subject to the CBAM, as transactions for electricity entering the EU from contracting parties were declared solely as imports regardless of origin.
Thermal power plants among community contracting parties have benefited from access to the EU's integrated electricity market, but have not been subject to the EU ETS, despite all coal and lignite-fired thermal power plants in the region considered to be in breach of the requirements of the EU's large combustion plant directive. But thermal capacity remains key in the Balkans, despite more renewables entering the power mix. Coal-fired generation accounts for about 40pc of annual domestic generation in the region.
