EU readies tweak for CO2 car standards

Spanish Market: Emissions, Oil products
24/03/25

The European Commission is expected to approve this week a legal proposal which would increase flexibility for compliance with CO2 standards for cars and vans.

The commission is expected to adopt, by written procedure, a legal proposal on 25 March, targeting additional flexibilities around penalties for cars and vans to meet CO2 emissions performance standards.

The proposal is expected to enable compliance with CO2 targets to be calculated over a three-year period, rather than for single years. EU leaders last week called for the legal proposal to be put forward "without delay".

EU leaders have also called on the commission to "take forward the review" foreseen in the CO2 for cars regulation. Industry has urged the EU to allow for low carbon and zero emission fuels to be accounted for under the CO2 standards.

Separately, further delay to the EU's official emissions reduction goal for 2040 appears likely. The commission does not currently have a "concrete date" to give on the GHG proposal for 2040 but it "does not seem" to be scheduled for presentation this week. The official work program for the commission had listed the 2040 GHG target, an update to the European Climate Law, in the first quarter of 2025.

The delay to the EU's 2040 GHG proposal further impacts presentation of an updated EU climate plan — known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC) — which will cover the timeframe up to 2035. The commission said several parties have already missed the 10 February deadline for submission of updated NDCs to UN climate body the UNFCCC.

By Dafydd ab Iago

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10/07/25

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

London, 10 July (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast by nearly 3mn b/d, driven by stronger growth in India and the Middle East and a shifting policy landscape that it says is reinforcing fossil fuels' role in the global energy mix. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," Opec secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in the group's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), repeating a line he used in last year's edition and underscoring Opec's ongoing rejection of forecasts that see oil use peaking before 2030. Opec argues that such forecasts underestimate demand growth in developing economies and overstate the pace of the energy transition. The 2025 WOO lifts Opec's 2050 oil demand projection to 122.9mn b/d, from 120.1mn b/d in last year's WOO. Its 2040 forecast is revised up to 120mn b/d from 117.8mn b/d. The 2030 outlook is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, but the group sees a steeper rise in demand in the later years of the forecast. While the overall trajectory remains consistent with last year's WOO, the new report places greater emphasis on policy recalibration in major economies. It highlights growing political resistance to decarbonisation targets — particularly in the US and parts of Europe — and said energy affordability and supply security are increasingly shaping national strategies. These shifts, Opec suggests, are slowing the pace of energy transitions and supporting continued oil demand growth. The 2025 WOO adopts a more cautious tone on electrification, citing infrastructure and cost challenges, and acknowledges the geopolitical effect of the US' second withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — a development not covered in last year's edition. India leads the pack India makes the biggest single contribution to the long-term demand increase. Opec forecasts the country's oil use to more than double from 2024, to 13.7mn b/d by 2050. Demand in China, on the other hand, rises in the medium term but flattens after 2035, reflecting slower economic growth and rising electric vehicle uptake. OECD demand is projected by Opec to edge up to 46.6mn b/d by 2030 — from 45.7mn b/d in 2024 — before entering a steady decline. By 2050, it is put at 37.2mn b/d, led by sharp reductions in Europe's transport and residential sectors. The sectoral breakdown remains broadly unchanged from last year. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation account for most of the demand growth between 2025 and 2050. Oil use in road transport is forecast to rise by 5.3mn b/d, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.7mn b/d. Supply to match demand On the supply side, Opec projects global liquids output at 113.6mn b/d by 2030 and 123mn b/d by 2050. It still expects US production to peak at just over 23mn b/d around 2030, before falling to 19.6mn b/d by mid-century. Non-Opec+ supply is seen plateauing in the 2030s, with Opec+ producers expected to meet most of the incremental demand, lifting their share of global supply to 52pc by 2050 from 48pc in 2024. Opec estimates $18.2 trillion of investment will be needed to meet oil demand through to 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in the 2024 report. Of the total, $14.9 trillion — more than 80pc — is allocated to upstream. The group reiterated that underinvestment could threaten future supply security and market stability. The report notes refining capacity is expected to keep pace with long-term demand growth, but warns of a potential short-term tightening later this decade as the rise in oil demand outpaces new capacity — particularly in Asia-Pacific. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Sumitomo to invest $10bn in UK clean energy

10/07/25

Japan’s Sumitomo to invest $10bn in UK clean energy

Tokyo, 10 July (Argus) — Japanese trading firm Sumitomo has agreed to invest a total of £7.5bn ($10.2bn) by 2035 in key clean energy projects in the UK. The agreement was made with the UK's Department for Business and Trade's Office for Investment on 9 July. The £7.5bn total includes investments Sumitomo made before this deal. The investments will be focused on key offshore wind and hydrogen projects. Sumitomo is also actively exploring the commercialisation of next-generation technologies such as fusion energy and energy management with storage solutions, the firm said. Sumitomo did not disclose more details on what projects it will invest in, when requested for comment. Sumitomo is currently involved in a low-carbon hydrogen production project at the Bacton gas terminal in north Norfolk, CO2 storage in the North Sea and the Peak Cluster CO2 shipping project. The trading house has also invested in offshore wind power businesses. Sumitomo chose to partner with the UK because of the government's support for clean energy businesses, said the firm, and it intends to enhance its collaboration with the UK to develop its clean energy portfolio. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian carbon industry criticises key method update

09/07/25

Australian carbon industry criticises key method update

Sydney, 9 July (Argus) — Australian carbon industry member organisation Carbon Market Institute's (CMI) taskforce on the long-planned Integrated Farm and Land Management (IFLM) carbon credit method has urged the government not to further delay development of the method, following an update today. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) said today that there were "considerable technical issues yet to resolve" on key components of the planned Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) method — the first in the country to combine multiple activities that store carbon in soil and vegetation in a single method . It aimed to deliver an exposure draft method to the Emission Reduction Assurance Committee (Erac), the statutory body responsible for ensuring the integrity of Australia's carbon crediting framework, "by the end of 2025". Erac would need to assess the draft before leading a public consultation, which would then help inform its decision to recommend the method to assistant minister for climate change and energy Josh Wilson. The DCCEEW's update suggests the method would be very unlikely to be legislated this year as expected by some in the industry, with the delay to further impact the industry need to boost future ACCU issuances to address an expected shift in the supply-demand balance within a few years . "CMI and the IFLM taskforce have been vocal about the market impact of the protracted delays in the development of the IFLM method and the current timeline is inadequate and lacks the urgency and required collaboration to finalise a technical draft," IFLM taskforce co-chairs, carbon project developer Climate Friendly co-chief executive Skye Glenday and carbon developer Australian Integrated Carbon chief executive Adam Townley, said in a statement sent to Argus . The taskforce is calling for a commitment to a legislative draft to be put before Erac in September. Four modules proposed The DCCEEW is proposing that the method includes four activity modules setting out different abatement activities, with project proponents able to undertake one or more modules in a project. Modules 1 and 3 generally have a strong evidence base and well-known policy and legislative positions, as they would be based on the Native Forest from Managed Regrowth and Reforestation by Environmental or Mallee Plantings methods, respectively. But module 4 would be based on the Soil Organic Carbon 2021 method, which is currently being reviewed by Erac. This means "more work may be required" to adequately address the review's recommendations, the DCCEEW said today. Module 2 is the one facing "considerable technical issues yet to resolve", according to the DCCEEW. While module 1 would credit abatement for activities that promote the regeneration of native forest on land that had been comprehensively cleared and kept that way by mechanical or chemical destruction, module 2 would credit abatement for regeneration on land previously suppressed by other management actions, such as grazing pressure. "The department recognises regeneration under this module would be a result of multiple drivers, including rainfall variability, and that a management signal from the permitted activities may not always be clear," it said. The greater uncertainty in the attribution of the project activity to carbon stock change means a higher risk of not meeting Erac's Offsets Integrity Requirements, it warned. Taskforce calls for one regeneration activity module The DCCEEW established two new stakeholder reference groups to help it address the more complex method components, with the first meetings held in June. But while welcoming the creation of the groups, the CMI IFLM taskforce co-chairs said they were concerned with the ongoing delays with the method development and the potential limitation of the proposals published today. The proposed method framework continues to be based on binary "cleared/uncleared" land classifications , and could limit IFLM's national application and scalability, they said. The suggestion that there are significant issues around the attribution of regeneration to management changes is "inaccurate and contrary to the weight of evidence", including several government reviews of the human-induced regeneration ACCU method, which expired on 30 September 2023, they noted. "From an IFLM taskforce perspective, there should be one regeneration activity module that is nationally applicable and based on a land condition framework," they added. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal

09/07/25

EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal

Brussels, 9 July (Argus) — Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) today rejected a motion put forward by the centre-left S&D group yesterday to fast-track discussions on the EU's 2040 climate targets, after far-right group the Patriots for Europe was given the lead on these discussions. MEPs rejected the urgency procedure motion — which would have sped up discussions on the European Commission's proposal to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels — with 379 votes against and 300 in favour. Dutch Renew member Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy, in favour of the proposal, argued that an EU 2040 target will contribute to the success of Cop 30 UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil. "The proposal to amend the European climate law has only been tabled last week, which is very, very late," Gerbrandy said. The urgency procedure would have allowed for faster debate, amendments and votes at committee and plenary level, according to German S&D member Tiemo Wolken. He noted that parliament has previously used the procedure to change environmental and climate laws, and recently to amend the protected status of wolves. Wolken's S&D had signed the motion with the Greens and Left. Parliament's largest group, the centre-right EPP, did not support the motion. Dutch EPP member Jeroen Lenaers called for realism. "We're not voting today on the climate law. We are voting on which procedure we're going to use," he said. He sees no justification as the climate proposals were only recently put forward by commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. "We want to work alongside the council in a parallel process," Lenaers said. EU states and parliament will have to adopt the final legal text of any amendments to the bloc's 2021 climate law. The text currently contains an obligation for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and an intermediate net GHG cut of at least 55pc by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. Austrian Green Lena Schilling said the EPP has opened the door for climate change deniers to further delay and undermine Europe's climate protection. "Right-wing extremist climate change deniers in powerful negotiating positions are a threat to the fight against the climate crisis," Schilling said. The Patriots group has been selected to choose one of its members to draw up and negotiate legal amendments following the commission's proposal. "The left's attempt to remove our influence on EU climate negotiations has been voted down," Danish member Anders Vistisen said. He called for a "realistic and responsible" climate policy rather than "[campaigner] Greta Thunberg rhetoric and climate nonsense". Vistisen also indicates that the commission's proposed 90pc GHG reduction is " not going to happen ". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian liquid fuels policy to free up ACCUs: CEFC

09/07/25

Australian liquid fuels policy to free up ACCUs: CEFC

Sydney, 9 July (Argus) — Annual demand for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) could be reduced by as much as 7.5mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2050 if Australia adopted policy changes to develop a low-carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) industry, according to a report this week. Encouraging companies to reduce direct scope 1 emissions through changes to the federal safeguard mechanism and/or voluntary adoption would drive the development of an Australian LCLF market and free up ACCUs for use in sectors that cannot achieve on-site decarbonisation due to technical challenges, state-owned green investment fund Clean Energy Finance (CEFC) said in a report authored by consultancy Deloitte . Under its central case scenario, which would involve constraining the use of carbon offsets, CEFC said that a 7bn litres/yr LCLF market could be created by 2050, abating up to 12mn t CO2e in 2040 and 20mn t CO2e in 2050 as a result. Annual ACCU demand across six sectors covered by the report — mining, aviation, rail, heavy freight, maritime, and construction — could be reduced by around 6.8mn t CO2e by 2050 in that case, to 2.4mn t CO2e/yr. Demand for ACCUs could reach as low as 1.7mn t CO2e by 2050 under an accelerated scenario, which would involve EU-style mandates for LCLF. Demand for ACCUs would be around 9.2mn t CO2e/yr under the base scenario, which assumes a market-led transition in which carbon prices remain low and LCLF demand is driven by a small group of customers willing to pay significant premiums to reduce their scope 3 emissions. 30pc cap under the safeguard mechanism The central case scenario assumes a hypothetical government intervention to cap the use of ACCUs under the safeguard mechanism at 30pc of the baseline for liquid fuel-related emissions. Currently, there is no limit to the number of ACCUs or safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) that facilities can use to manage their excess emissions under the scheme, but those that surrender carbon units equivalent to 30pc or more of their baselines need to publish a statement explaining why they have not undertaken more on-site abatement activities . The central case scenario also assumes the removal of baseline adjustments for trade-exposed baseline-adjusted facilities . Adopting a minimum 70pc direct on-site decarbonisation would trigger a positive supply-side response, driving significant technology deployment and competition between pathways and feedstocks, the CEFC said. Stakeholders claim that the current safeguard mechanism and ACCU pricing are not enough to drive early LCLF uptake, the report said. Policy intervention is needed to accelerate the bridging of the cost gap between the LCLF production cost and the ACCU price, which is currently not expected to happen until the 2040s, the report said. A market-led transition, on the other hand, would lead to greater pressure on the ACCU market, with up to 7.35mn t CO2e of ACCUs needed to meet demand in 2035 and 15.5mn t CO2e in 2050. ACCU supply reached an all-time high of 18.78mn in 2024 and is forecast at 19mn-24mn for 2025 . But the industry needs to boost future issuances to address an expected shift in the supply-demand balance within a few years . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU readies tweak for CO2 car standards

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Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

Japan’s Sumitomo to invest $10bn in UK clean energy

Japan’s Sumitomo to invest $10bn in UK clean energy

Australian carbon industry criticises key method update

Australian carbon industry criticises key method update

EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal

EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal

Australian liquid fuels policy to free up ACCUs: CEFC

Australian liquid fuels policy to free up ACCUs: CEFC

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