Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Chemicals, Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
04/04/25

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout.

"The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia.

The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said.

"We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy."

As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc.

The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week.

Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay.

A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month.

By Stephen Cunningham

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25/06/26

Dozens of ships transit Hormuz via Omani corridor

London, 25 June (Argus) — More than 50 ships have exited the Mideast Gulf through a southern route around the strait of Hormuz in the past three days, including 14 crude and oil product tankers, according to shiptracking data. The route runs around the tip of Oman and avoids sea lanes designated by Iran. It had been used sporadically during the US-Iran conflict, but was later defined as a temporary corridor under an International Maritime Organisation (IMO)- and Oman-led evacuation plan announced on 23 June. Seven VLCCs, three Suezmaxes and four other crude or clean product tankers have since exited the Gulf along the route. Other vessels using it included 15 bulk carriers — three of them Capesize — alongside containerships, LPG and LNG carriers and other ships. This is likely the busiest period on the route since the start of the conflict, as shipping through Hormuz begins to recover following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities. At least nine ships have also used the corridor to enter the Mideast Gulf, including the VLCC Ocean Lily , suggesting owners are becoming more confident about operating in the region. But use of the route remains contested. Earlier today, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned vessels against using any routes through the strait of Hormuz that have not been designated as safe by Tehran. The IRGC Navy said "some authorities" had announced a new route for ships to transit Hormuz "without informing or co-ordinating with" Iran, which it described as "unacceptable and completely dangerous". "The only permitted routes for passing through the strait of Hormuz are those which were announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran," it said. "Any movement of vessels outside these routes is very dangerous and prohibited." Lower war-risk premiums may support a further recovery in tanker activity. Additional war-risk premiums (AWRPs) for VLCCs have fallen to around 2pc of vessel value from about 5pc previously. Charterers have secured the Olympic Lady to load a crude cargo, marking one of the few VLCC fixtures from within the Mideast Gulf since the start of the war, according to market participants. Oil product trade has also begun to pick up as transit conditions improve. Mideast Gulf refiners have started to offer a wider range of products. Kuwaiti refiner KPC was among the first to return to the spot market this week after lifting force majeure on 18 June, following the US-Iran memorandum. KPC sold naphtha for July loading from Kuwait, likely its first spot fob tender since the start of the conflict. Market participants expect further product offers from KPC to follow. By Rhys van Dinther and John Ollett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iraq denies Opec exit reports, seeks higher output cap

25/06/26

Iraq denies Opec exit reports, seeks higher output cap

Dubai, 25 June (Argus) — Iraq's oil ministry on Thursday denied reports that Baghdad had considered leaving Opec, saying claims of a possible withdrawal "do not reflect the official position" of the government. Neither prime minister Ali al-Zaidi nor the government had proposed leaving, the ministry said. The clarification follows reports claiming Iraq had weighed exiting the group and is keeping all available options open if its crude production quota is not raised significantly. In response, the ministry said Iraq continues to advocate a reassessment of production ceilings within the framework agreed by Opec and its allies in the wider Opec+ alliance, to better reflect members' sustainable production capacity. It said the assessment should take account of Iraq's security and economic circumstances. The ministry was referring to the agreed independent maximum sustainable capacity assessment process within Opec+, which is designed to recalibrate production baselines from 2027 onwards. The assessment process is underway, Iraq is taking part and it is being conducted by an independent US consulting firm according to the agreed timetable, the ministry said. While the review will shape baselines and quotas from next year, Iraq's production target has been steadily rising this year as Opec+ restores previously curtailed output. The alliance "expects all voluntary cuts to be fully unwound over the coming months", the ministry said. Seven core Opec+ members agreed on 8 June to another 188,000 b/d increase in their collective production target for July, despite conflict in the Middle East continuing to disrupt supplies from several of the group's biggest producers. The increase is part of a wider process to unwind 1.65mn b/d of previous production cuts. As part of that process, Iraq's production target has risen to 4.35mn b/d for June and 4.38mn b/d for July. But the higher targets do not yet mean higher Iraqi output. The country remained well below its Opec+ target in May after the US-Israel war on Iran disrupted exports through the strait of Hormuz and forced Mideast Gulf producers to rein in output. Iraq produced just 1.55mn b/d in May, compared with a target of 4.33mn b/d, according to Argus estimates. Baghdad reiterated that future discussions over production ceilings and sustainable capacity would continue through the alliance's established technical and consensus-based mechanisms. Long-running campaign The ministry's statement reinforces a position successive Iraqi governments have advanced for several years. Former prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani repeatedly argued that Iraq's production quota should better reflect the country's reserves, production capacity, population and reconstruction needs. Before taking office in October 2022, al-Sudani criticised Opec+ production agreements as unfavourable to Iraq and pledged to seek a review of the country's allocation if appointed prime minister. He continued pressing that case while in office, most recently calling in October last year for a formal review of Iraq's production quota after arguing the country's existing allocation no longer reflected its resource base or development requirements. Iraqi officials contend the country's reserves, production potential and reconstruction needs justify a greater role within the alliance over the longer term. The UAE's exit from Opec earlier this year is seen in Baghdad as an opportunity to advance that goal, Argus understands. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK raises HRC quota, EU-to-UK HDG quota cut

25/06/26

UK raises HRC quota, EU-to-UK HDG quota cut

London, 25 June (Argus) — The UK government on Thursday published the long-awaited update to its steel safeguard quotas, setting the overall quota volume at 3.218mn t — 21pc higher than provisional volumes published in March. The cut compared with the previous safeguard regime has been softened to 51pc, from 60pc in an earlier proposal. The biggest changes are to flat products, while some quotas, such as for rebar, are unchanged from their provisional volumes. The overall quota for hot-rolled coil (HRC) has been lifted sharply, while the quota for importing hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) from the EU has been reduced significantly. In contrast, quotas for South Korean and Vietnamese HDG are unchanged. "We recognise that this will create changes to trade flows including with some of our closest trading partners... Where quotas are filled, imports above these levels will face a 50pc tariff. The measure will apply only to products that can be made in the UK," trade minister Chris Bryant said. The EU HRC quota (category 1) has been revised up to 375,000 t/yr from the provisional 68,226 t/yr for the quota year beginning on 1 July. The Indian quota has been raised to 33,456 t/yr from 12,405 t/yr, while the South Korean quota has increased to 8,785 t/yr from 3,258 t/yr. The UK government has worked closely with the EU to reflect the two sides' integrated supply chains, Bryant said. "We have... agreed an approach that reflects the UK and EU's highly interconnected supply chains. This will provide stability for UK-EU steel trade from 1 July, while we continue to work together to strengthen UK-EU steel trade longer term," he said. Market participants questioned whether the South Korean HRC allocation would be commercially viable, given it allows shipments of only around 2,196 t/quarter. Compared with the expiring safeguard year, a key change on HRC is that Turkey and Taiwan have lost their country-specific quotas, with those volumes folded into the residual allocation. But the residual HRC quota has been raised sharply to 49,763 t/yr from the provisional 18,452 t/yr. But the overall HRC quota remains much tighter than under the current safeguard year, which market participants expect could support UK HRC prices. Prices for UK HRC were assessed last week at £715/t ddp Midlands. In HDG (category 4), the EU quota was reduced from the provisional 634,773 t/yr to 510,273 t/yr. But annual quotas for India, South Korea and Vietnam were left unchanged at 125,796t, 100,753t and 174,367t, respectively. Some market participants said the scale of Vietnamese HDG volumes allowed into the UK could weigh on prices. Indian-owned Tata Steel UK said the final quota levels do not reflect UK market conditions and still leave key segments — including metallic coated steel, packaging steel and hollow sections — exposed to import pressure. The company warned that this could undermine the competitiveness, sustainability, growth and investment outlook of the UK steel sector, and called on the government to revisit the framework while continuing to work with domestic producers. The government has also removed some product codes "where new information confirmed there was no UK production" and added others "where there is evidence of production", Bryant said. In category 12A (alloy merchant bars and light sections), code 72283070 has been added. In category 12B (non-alloy merchant bars and light sections), code 72149950 has been added. In category 14 (stainless bars and light sections), codes 72221910 and 72221990 have been removed. In category 26 (other welded tubes), codes 73061100 and 73062100 have been removed. In category 28 (non-alloy wire), codes 72173049 and 72173090 have been added, while codes 72172010, 72172030, 72172050, 72172090, 72179020, 72179050 and 72179090 have been removed. Beyond HRC and HDG, the biggest revisions to the UK's provisional annual quotas are as follows: category 6 (tin mill products): +58,000t to 69,795t (+491.7pc) category 12B (non-alloy merchant bars and light sections): +64,102t to 70,812t (+955.3pc) category 17 (angles, shapes and sections of iron or non-alloy steel): +147,572t to 270,762t (+119.8pc) category 28 (non-alloy wire): -20,491t to 59,734t (-25.5pc) By Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK to set in law GHG cuts of 87pc over 1990-2042

25/06/26

UK to set in law GHG cuts of 87pc over 1990-2042

London, 25 June (Argus) — UK parliament has agreed on the country's seventh carbon budget, and will set into law greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of 87pc by 2042, from a 1990 baseline. The vote, which took place in the evening of 24 June, passed with 332 votes for and 94 against. The UK's Labour government has pursued ambitious decarbonisation policies since it won a landslide victory in July 2024. The government earlier this month set out its proposal for the emissions cuts, in line with recommendations from the parliamentary advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC). Carbon budgets, which are legally-binding in the UK, cap the total GHG emissions that the UK can emit over five-year periods. The seventh carbon budget, which covers 2038-42, will have a limit of 535mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e), including the UK's share of international aviation and shipping emissions. This is "consistent with the Paris Agreement" and its most ambitious target to curb the global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the government said. The CCC welcomed the results of yesterday's vote. It "provides the long-term certainty that businesses, investors, and communities need to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels… this legislation will help unlock innovation, drive clean investment, and strengthen the UK's competitiveness in a low-carbon world", CCC chair Nigel Topping said. The UK is on track to meet its fourth and fifth carbon budgets, which cover 2023-27 and 2028-32, respectively, the CCC said this week in its annual assessment of government progress on climate targets . But the government must accelerate electrification to hit climate goals beyond that, the committee added. The UK met its first three carbon budgets, which covered 2008-2022 collectively, largely through power sector decarbonisation, including shutting coal-fired power generation. The country has a legally-binding target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia reservation scheme to shape new gas: Woodside

25/06/26

Australia reservation scheme to shape new gas: Woodside

Sydney, 25 June (Argus) — The design of the federal government's new gas reservation scheme, currently open for public comment, will dictate Australian independent Woodside Energy's decision to drill new domestic wells in the Gippsland basin. Woodside last year identified four development targets that it said could deliver up to 200PJ (5.34bn m³) of sales gas to the market via its Bass strait assets, including the Gippsland basin joint venture (GBJV), for which it will assume operatorship from ExxonMobil this year. But this plan hinges on both technical maturity and Canberra's new gas reservation scheme, chief executive Liz Westcott said on 25 June, warning that the right policy settings and collaboration between industry, government and community was needed to progress new projects. The 50:50 GBJV assets include the 700 TJ/d Longford gas plants, the Long Island Point gas liquids terminal and pipelines linking offshore operations with Victoria state. Woodside will also take over operatorship at the Kipper unit joint venture, which is 32.5pc owned by ExxonMobil, 32.5pc by Woodside, and 35pc by Japan's Mitsui. Scheme start looms The gas reservation programme, slated to begin on 1 July next year, will require LNG exporters to reserve 20pc of shipped volumes for the domestic market only, the government has said. Australia has, however, pledged to respect term supply contracts entered into before this year as part of the national scheme. It remains unclear how this will operate practically, but it is designed to avoid a possible shortfall later this decade due to poor gas planning by state and federal governments. Woodside does not exports gas from its eastern states assets but supplies LNG from its 14.3mn t/yr North West Shelf and 4.9mn t/yr Pluto terminals on the west coast. Western Australia's state government has said it has been assured its 15pc reservation scheme will meet Canberra's stated goals . Consultation on the reservation scheme will close on 30 June , with further development of the programme to take place in July-December. The reservation is causing uncertainty among foreign investors in the nation's LNG sector , while domestic producers are flagging future supply impacts if investment is curtailed . By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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