Opec+ overproducers issue new compensation plans

Spanish Market: Crude oil
16/04/25

Seven of the eight Opec+ members that began a gradual unwinding of a combined 2.2mn b/d output cut this month have submitted updated schedules for how they plan to compensate for producing above their respective quotas since the start of 2024.

The schedules, released by the Opec secretariat today, show Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia are planning to produce around 305,000 b/d below their combined production targets on average from April through June 2026 (see table).

This is to compensate for exceeding their production targets by a cumulative 4.573mn b/d between January 2024 and March 2025, the secretariat said. This figure does not represent a monthly average, but rather the sum of the monthly amount by which the overproducers surpassed their respective output ceilings in this period. It works out to an average monthly overproduction of 305,000 b/d.

Algeria is the only country in the group of eight that did not overproduce in that stretch, and therefore does not have to compensate.

The previous schedule, which was published in the third week of March, envisaged the seven producing around 263,000 b/d below their combined targets on average from March through June 2026. That was to clear 4.203mn b/d of cumulative overproduction between January 2024 and February 2025, or 300,000 b/d on average per month over that period.

This latest schedule factors in the decision by these seven countries, and Algeria, earlier this month to speed up the return of a 2.2mn b/d cut by lifting the group's overall production target in May by 411,000 b/d ꟷ three times more than it had originally planned.

If implemented fully these compensation cuts should at least largely offset much of the production increases that would be allowed by the Opec+ group of eight's planned unwind through to the second half of 2026. At most, the compensation cuts would more than offset the planned increases for some months, including for this month.

But with serial over-producers Iraq and Kazakhstan responsible for delivering the biggest chunk of these compensatory cuts through to the middle of next year, there is no guarantee of full implementation.

By Nader Itayim

Opec+ overproduction compensation plan*								b/d
Month	Iraq	Kuwait	Saudi Arabia	UAE	Kazakhstan	Oman	Russia	Total

Apr-25	120	8	15	5	63	5	6	222
May-25	140	15	0	10	116	12	85	378
Jun-25	140	23		10	132	15	111	431
Jul-25	135	30		10	126	17	137	455
Aug-25	130	38		10	141	19	163	501
Sep-25	135	37		10	135	14	189	520
Oct-25	135			10	160	15		320
Nov-25	135			20	114			269
Dec-25	130			20	69			219
Jan-26	125			33	49			207
Feb-26	125			33	38			196
Mar-26	124			33	40			197
Apr-26	120			57	38			215
May-26	120			62	42			224
Jun-26	120			63	36			219
Average reduction								305
*monthly reduction pledge in addition to existing targets

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20/05/25

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Shell CEO defends 'resilient investment strategy'

20/05/25

Shell CEO defends 'resilient investment strategy'

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Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

20/05/25

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

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Libyan crude returns to Asia after one-month hiatus

20/05/25

Libyan crude returns to Asia after one-month hiatus

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US budget bill not enough of permitting fix: CEO

19/05/25

US budget bill not enough of permitting fix: CEO

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