IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Fertilizers, Natural gas, Oil products
07/05/25

The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices.

Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit.

Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart). This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price.

Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol.

To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale.

By Stefka Wechsler

NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits

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22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran: Update

Updates with remarks from President Donald Trump Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. "The strikes were a spectacular military success," Trump said in a televised address Saturday night. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, had already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade has often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump, in his televised address, referenced the US' killing of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 — the last time US and Iranian forces directly exchanged fire. Tehran's response at that time involved missile attacks on US bases in Iraq that wounded more than 100 US military personnel, but drew no heavy US retaliation. The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Even before the US bombing raids, Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. The US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. He said he would make a televised address at 10pm ET Saturday "regarding our very successful military operation in Iran". "A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," Trump said. Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Trump since 13 June alternatively held out the prospect of diplomacy and discussed killing senior Iranian leaders. Even today, after the US air strikes, Trump posted that "NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!". The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran’s refineries at risk in escalating conflict

20/06/25

Iran’s refineries at risk in escalating conflict

Iran would probably have to curtail products exports and turn to the import markets if its refineries are attacked, write Ieva Paldaviciute and Nader Itayim Dubai, 20 June (Argus) — Key oil and gas production and export facilities have stayed out of the firing line a week into the conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv, bringing a degree of relief to global markets. But the targeting of downstream assets by both sides has raised the spectre of looming domestic fuel shortages if the conflict endures. No Iranian crude refineries have been hit yet in the Israeli strikes that, for the most part, have focused on key military and nuclear-related infrastructure and personnel. But strikes on two gas processing facilities in the south of the country and two products storage facilities on the outskirts of Tehran suggest refineries, or condensate splitters, soon could be affected. Iran retaliated by attacking Israel's 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery on 15 June, damaging is power supply system. The plant initially continued crude processing while shutting some secondary units, but it fully halted operations on 17 June. Iran has nearly 2mn b/d of crude refining capacity spread across nine facilities, which rises to about 2.4mn b/d when including the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter in Bandar Abbas, on the Mideast Gulf coast. This is up from below 1.9mn b/d a decade ago, after capacity additions at the 58,000 b/d Shiraz, 630,000 b/d Abadan and 220,000 b/d Tehran refineries, among others. Iran nevertheless has grappled with a severe products imbalance in recent years, driven primarily by a fast increase in its domestic fuel consumption. Although operations at all refineries remain unimpeded, the conflict has triggered a frenzy of fuel buying by Iranians, particularly in Tehran, with Israel warning residents to leave the city as it intensifies its bombing campaign. If any refining infrastructure is hit, Iran may quickly have to halt products exports to ensure that domestic supply can be met. Iran is a net exporter of fuel oil and naphtha, but its position as a gasoline and gasoil exporter has diminished in recent years owing to its fast-growing domestic demand. The reimposition of US sanctions on Iran by US president Donald Trump during his first term in 2018 and his "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran at the start of his second term in January have only added pressure to its products trade. Iranian naphtha is shipped mainly to the UAE, where it is used as a gasoline blendstock. Iran exported about 116,000 b/d of naphtha in January-May, data from consultancy FGE show, down by 12pc from its 2024 exports. Transfer news Iranian fuel oil typically makes its way to floating storage hubs in Asia-Pacific, often after multiple ship-to-ship transfers designed to obscure its origin. Some cargoes are then re-exported to China and bought by independent refiners as feedstock fuel. Fuel oil exports stood at 252,000 b/d in the first five months of this year, down from 264,000 b/d last year. Iran has had to turn to imports to bridge the gap between its gasoline production of about 660,000 b/d and average consumption of 780,000 b/d during the Iranian year to 20 March 2025, according to state-owned refiner NIORDC. Iran's diesel production has also been playing catch-up, with heavily subsidised consumption exacerbated by fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries. Iran still exported 42,000 b/d of diesel this year, according to FGE, but this is less than half of the 102,000 b/d it exported last year. The Haifa refinery is a key supplier to Israel's domestic market but it also exported about 12,000 b/d of diesel and gasoil, and 13,000 b/d of fuel oil in January-May, mostly to neighbouring countries in the Mediterranean. A prolonged shutdown could result in Israel turning to products imports, pressuring supply chains in the Mediterranean. Israel aims to restart the plant within weeks. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

DUH fordert Drosselung von PCK-Produktion

20/06/25

DUH fordert Drosselung von PCK-Produktion

London, 20 June (Argus) — Die Deutsche Umwelthilfe hat vergangene Woche Widerspruch gegen die Emissionen-Ausnahmegenehmigung für die PCK Raffinerie Schwedt eingelegt und zugleich ein gerichtliches Eilverfahren vor dem zuständigen Verwaltungsgericht begonnen. Sollte der Eilantrag Erfolg haben, müsste die PCK ihren Betrieb drosseln, so die Hoffnung der DUH. Das Landesamt für Umwelt in Brandenburg (LfU) hatte Ende April 2025 der PCK (230.000 bl/Tag) in Schwedt die Ausnahmezulassung erteilt, fünfmal so viel Schwefeldioxid und Schwefeltrioxid zu emittieren wie das zulässige Tagesmittel. Das entspricht einer Anhebung der zulässigen Tagesemissionsgrenze — laut Bundesemissionsschutzverordnung (BImSchV) — von 200 mg/Nm3 auf 1000 mg/Nm3.Die erteilte Ausnahmeregelung soll vorerst bis Dezember 2027 gelten. Begründet hatte die PCK den genehmigten Antrag damit, dass eine Einhaltung seit dem Ende der Rohölversorgung aus Russland nicht mehr möglich sei. Seitdem werden über Rostock, Danzig und aus Kasachstan bis zu 20 verschiedene Rohölsorten mit unterschiedlichen Schwefelgehalten importiert, was zu höheren Emissionen von teilweise bis zu 1000 mg/Nm3 führen kann. Die Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH) sieht in der erteilten Genehmigung "gravierende Verstöße gegen europäisches und nationales Umwelt- und Genehmigungsrecht". Die Genehmigung hätte nur einem "Verfahren mit Umweltverträglichkeitsprüfung und grenzüberschreitender Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung erteilt werden dürfen." Außerdem würde die Genehmigung dem Bundes-Immissionsschutzrecht widersprechen, das sich an Tagesmittel- und Halbstundenmittelwerten als Emissionsgrenzwerte orientiere, so die DUH. Die DUH hat am 13. Juni beim LfU Widerspruch gegen die Ausnahmeregelung für die PCK eingelegt und zudem einen gerichtlichen Eilantrag an das Verwaltungsgericht Frankfurt/Oder, der an das zuständige Gericht in Potsdam weitergeleitet wurde, eingereicht. Eine inhaltliche Entscheidung könnte bereits in der KW 26 getroffen werden, so das Verwaltungsgericht Frankfurt/Oder. Von einem erfolgreichen Eilantrag beim Verwaltungsgericht in Brandenburg erhofft sich die DUH, dass die in Kraft getretene Ausnahmegenehmigung zunächst aufgeschoben, und die PCK dadurch verpflichtet sein wird, den Betrieb zu drosseln, um die geltenden Emissionsobergrenzen laut BImSchV einzuhalten. Das polnische Klimaministerium hatte sich am 23. Mai zu der erteilten Ausnahmeregelung geäußert. Es erklärte in einer Mitteilung nach dem Treffen mit dem deutschen Bundesumweltminister Carsten Schneider, dass eines der besprochenen Themen die Sorge um die Schwefeldioxidemissionen der Raffinerie in Schwedt gewesen sei. Das polnische Ministerium bat das deutsche Ministerium um Unterstützung bei der Ansprache des Themas mit der brandenburgischen Landesregierung. Dabei bat die polnische Seite um Zugang zu Messungen der Luftqualität im Raum Schwedt und erklärte, dass das deutsche Ministerium sich diesbezüglich kooperativ zeige. Die PCK beliefert neben dem deutschen Einzugsgebiet weite Teile Westpolens mit Produkt. Von Marc Hauschild und Tomasz Stepien Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

20/06/25

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

London, 20 June (Argus) — The European Commission today suspended Pakistan's Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status for imports of ethanol. The removal is effective from today, 20 June. A request was lodged in May last year by France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Poland, who sought to activate Article 30 of the GSP Regulation, arguing that ethanol coming from Pakistan since 2022 has "caused a serious disturbance to the Union ethanol market". Under Article 30, the commission can "adopt an implementing act in order to suspend the preferential arrangement in respect of the products concerned". Pakistan was granted GSP+ status in 2014, and this expired at the end of 2023. The status was temporarily extended until 2027. The GSP+ grants reduced-tariff or tariff-free access to the EU for vulnerable low- and lower- to middle-income countries that, according to the EU, "implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, protection of the environment and good governance". It fully removes custom duties on two-thirds of the bloc's tariff lines in Pakistan's case, including ethanol. Pakistan is a major supplier of industrial-grade ethanol to Europe, but it does not export fuel-grade ethanol. According to market participants, this is because production facilities in the country lack sustainability certifications such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) that are required for biofuels to qualify under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) targets. Fuel-grade ethanol was not included in the bloc's measures. Several Pakistani market participants were hopeful the GSP+ status will remain in place, which has continued to support ethanol exports from the country to the EU ( see table ). But uncertainty has weighed on demand from Europe recently, suppliers said. A participant told Argus that Pakistani sellers may look to offer more into Africa to soften the drop in demand. Some European suppliers anticipated this outcome, and have already stopped importing from Pakistan. European renewable ethanol association ePure expressed concern about the decision to exclude fuel ethanol from the scope of the measures, noting this could open the door to unintended loopholes and weaken the overall effect of the safeguard efforts. By Evelina Lungu and Deborah Sun European ethanol imports from Pakistan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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