Algeria’s OAIC seeks wheat in tender

Spanish Market: Agriculture
12/05/25

Algeria's state grains buyer OAIC issued a tender for 11.5pc protein content milling wheat for July shipment, closing on 14 May.

OAIC is seeking a nominal 50,000t of wheat on a cfr basis for shipment on 1-15 July or 16-31 July.

For South American, Australian or Indian wheat, OAIC asked for shipment periods to be brought forward by one month.

Algeria's wheat imports in 2025-26 are forecast at 9.2mn t by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) attache in Algiers. This would be lower than the 9.4mn t of imports forecast for 2024-25 by the USDA.

Algeria last booked milling wheat in a tender nearly a month ago at $267.50/t cfr for shipment in June.

By Kristin Yavorska

Grains, oilseeds and veg oils tenders
Buyer	Issued	Closes	Status	Cargo	Shipment/delivery	Price	Seller	Notes

Algeria's OAIC	12-May	14-May	Open	50,000t milling wheat	Jul-25			cfr
Tunisia's ODC	29-Apr	30-Apr	Closed	25,000t barley	Jun-25	$253.43/t	Viterra	cfr Tunisia
Jordan's MIT	23-Apr	29-Apr	Closed	60,000t milling wheat	2h Sep 2025	$259.99/t	Al Dahra	cfr Aqaba

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23/10/26

Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil

Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been narrowing the gap to senator Flavio Bolsonaro's lead in polls, but Lula still lags his challenger just days before the presidential election runoff set for 25 October. Opinion polls indicate that the contest remains close, with right-wing Bolsonaro holding a narrow advantage. A 21 October average of multiple polls by independent polling tracker Votendi put Bolsonaro at 51.2pc and Lula at 48.8pc, a 2.4 percentage-point gap. The margin of error is of 2.2 percentage points. Bolsonaro finished the first round of votes with 47pc, ahead of Lula's 45.16pc, leaving the two separated by about 2.2mn votes. Lula has aimed at undecided voters to narrow the gap, with more than 33mn Brazilians not voting in the first round. He sought to broaden his appeal since the first round by embracing several proposals aimed at conservative-leaning voters, including tax amnesty, debt renegotiation for microentrepreneurs and a lower age of criminal responsibility. He also proposed free weekend bus travel and earlier payment of the federal social welfare program, ideas that might appeal more to his left-wing base. Labor policy has been one of the clearest dividing lines of the campaign. Lula has championed a recently approved reduction in working hours, while Bolsonaro's allies have argued for greater labor-market flexibility, including wider use of hourly employment contracts. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has focused on the economy. He promises to cut R200bn-250bn ($39.8bn-49.7bn) from the federal budget, which financial markets view favorably. He has also promised to allow individuals to suspend repayments on personal debts for six months and for businesses to hold off for as long as a year. While the election campaigns have featured little debate over energy , investors remain focused on potential implications. A Lula victory would likely reinforce the government's approach to energy transition policies, including support for biofuels and renewable energy investment. Bolsonaro has generally favoured fewer environmental restrictions and could seek to accelerate licensing processes for agriculture, mining and oil. Energy markets are unlikely to face immediate disruptions under either candidate, given Brazil's importance as a major exporter, but differences in environmental policy and infrastructure investment could influence longer-term prospects. Corruption standoff Corruption allegations have dominated the campaign's final stretch. Bolsonaro has focused on the Operation Car Wash anti-corruption probe, which sent Lula to jail in 2018 on money laundering and corruption counts. He was later acquitted and freed in 2019. Lula's campaign has accused Bolsonaro of money laundering and corruption scandals during the Covid-19 pandemic — when his father Jair Bolsonaro was president. It also has tried to tie him to Rio de Janeiro's militia — illegal mafia-like vigilante paramilitary groups. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing, saying there is no material evidence of participation in criminal schemes, extortion or the command of paramilitary groups. Lula has further challenged Bolsonaro to disclose his banking and telephone records to prove he is clean, saying he would do the same. Bolsonaro responded by demanding records for people close to the president. Lula obliged. A recent Quaest survey found that 52pc of voters disapproved of Bolsonaro, compared with 47pc for Lula. The same polling shows that 44pc of voters fear a Bolsonaro return to power, against 42pc who fear a Lula re-election. Institutional impact The runoff's result will have lasting consequences for Brazil's institutions, as Bolsonaro promises to revamp the judicial system and the constitution. Changes would include abolishing the right to re-election for executive branch offices and extending presidential and gubernatorial terms to five or six years from the current four. He says he would also promote changes to the supreme court's structure and powers, redefining the relationship between branches of government. Overhauling the judicial system or parts of the constitution would require the backing of large congressional majorities. Brazil also held legislative elections on 4 October, with Bolsonaro's Liberal party securing sweeping victories . It will hold 121 seats in the 513-member lower house and 28 in the 81-member senate. Therefore, Bolsonaro would likely face little resistance to enact changes. The next president will nominate four or five supreme court justices. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Moraes is seen as a Lula ally and emerged as a leading figure in the judiciary, especially for his role in high-profile investigations involving Bolsonaro and his allies. Those included the one that sent Jair Bolsonaro to jail for 27 years for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election following his defeat to Lula. Flavio Balsonaro would also likely attempt to win amnesty for his father in case he wins. Foreign policy Bolsonaro would probably pursue closer relations with US president Donald Trump after tariffs strained ties under Lula. His victory would add Brazil to a regional shift towards the right, following conservative electoral gains elsewhere including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. But it could weaken Brazil's claim to leadership in developing economies globally and diminish its role in international climate negotiations. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's farm logistics emerge as key divide in runoff

23/10/26

Brazil's farm logistics emerge as key divide in runoff

Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazil's presidential runoff between left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro could bring sharply different approaches to moving grain and fertilizer across the continent-sized country. Logistics costs in Brazil are among the highest in major agricultural exporting nations. It consumed 15.5pc of Brazil's GDP in 2025, according to the Institute of Logistics and Supply Chain (ILOS). That was nearly double the 8.7pc share reported for the US and slightly above the 13.9pc ratio registered in China, according to data from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and China's state council, respectively. While both candidates support agribusiness expansion, Lula has emphasized federal infrastructure programs, public-private partnerships and subsidized rural credits since taking office in 2023. Bolsonaro proposes an aggressive private construction effort and private operations. The state provides legal certainty, stable and predictable tariff regulations, and respect for the rationale behind private economic decisions, without interventions that distort market incentives, according to Bolsonaro's infrastructure plan. It is on this basis that private investment would be responsible for construction and operations. Lula said he expects to move forward with Brazil's growth acceleration program if reelected, known as PAC. The government plan invested R280bn ($55.6bn) in infrastructure in 2025 and expects R300bn destined to infrastructure in 2026. Bolsonaro's government plan calls for R900bn in infrastructure investment over four years and identifies logistics costs as one of the main constraints on the competitiveness of Brazilian agriculture. At the center of the proposal are Bolsonaro's "Intelligent Logistics Corridors", designed to improve connections between the central-western grain belt and export terminals. The plan prioritizes projects such as Ferrograo railway , which will link the central-western region — Brazil's largest grain-producing hub — to the Northern Arc export corridor. It also promises to complete the Transnordestina railway , potentially improving grain and fertilizer flows across the northeast. The 1,200km (745.6-mile) Transnordestina railroad connects the northeastern states of Maranhao, Ceara, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Sergipe and Piaui. It is considered strategic for inland transportation of grains, fertilizers, cement, fuels and iron ore because it connects key producing areas to the Pecem port complex, in Ceara, and the Suape port, in Pernambuco. Construction started in 2006 but the project has been delayed several times. Bolsonaro's platform also ties logistics policy to fertilizer security, reducing the country's reliance on imports. For commodity markets, the proposal links transportation, mining and agricultural policy more directly than the current administration's approach. Lula's approach ties to long-term national development, decarbonization and the reduction of regional and social inequality. None of the platforms specifically mention Brazil's national land transportation agency ANTT's minimum freight rates, which have been in effect since 2018, cleared by former president Michel Temer. The standard rate came into effect after a truckers' strike over payment and rising diesel prices. The demonstrations blocked major highways and disrupted logistics chains. Credit underwriting Despite the candidates' focus on logistics, access to financing remains a central concern for producers. Lula's platform promises larger volumes of rural credit, financing irrigation systems, machinery and productivity-enhancing technologies, and measures to simplify access to official credit lines. It also proposes expanding funding for family farming and maintaining credit as a tool for agricultural modernization. The government would seek to align interest rates more closely with farm profitability and diversify funding sources through capital markets and agribusiness securities, according to the plan. Bolsonaro's proposal takes a different approach. Rather than committing to larger budgets for Brazil's farm loans program, known as Plano Safra, the platform links access to financing primarily to land titling, legal certainty and debt restructuring mechanisms. The document argues that regularized property ownership would improve producers' ability to obtain credit and invest, but it stops short of defining funding targets, official lending volumes or interest rate objectives for future Plano Safra programs. The debate comes as agricultural groups warn that financing has become one of the sector's main structural constraints. A joint study by agribusiness association ABAG, confederation of insurance companies CNseg and credit, financing and investment association Acrefi estimates that Brazilian agribusiness requires more than R1 trillion in annual funding for production, investment and commercialization, compared with R516.2bn provided under the 2025-2026 Plano Safra. That leaves both candidates facing the same hurdle: translating broad policy goals into mechanisms capable of expanding investment while keeping borrowing costs manageable during a period of elevated interest rates. Whether either strategy can reduce freight costs and close the sector's financing gap may ultimately matter more than campaign rhetoric for Brazil's commodity markets. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Europe may struggle to fill Nov-Dec Mena wheat demand

22/10/26

Europe may struggle to fill Nov-Dec Mena wheat demand

London, 22 October (Argus) — Large commitments of milling wheat sold to buyers in the Middle East and north Africa (Mena) region for November-December loading, plus additional purchases to come, will keep buyers mostly dependent on EU wheat as well as disrupted Black Sea exports until new-crop arrives from the southern hemisphere. Wheat importers across the Mena region are set to import 5.56mn-7.06mn t of wheat in November-December, comprised of state tender purchases from Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Pakistan and Jordan, along with state buying and private market demand from Egypt, Morocco and Libya ( see table ). Egypt is the country with the highest demand for the coming months at up to 3.5mn t, and also potentially the largest variable. State importer Future of Egypt (FOE) is set to return to the market to buy 1mn-1.5mn t of milling wheat for November-December , and buyers in the private market continuing to buy wheat hand to mouth are expected to import 1.2mn-2mn t, according to market participants. Whether Egypt looks to import 2.2mn t or 3.5mn t could determine how tight European supplies are for the wider region. The current pace of exports from Russia, Ukraine and Europe leaves little room for fresh demand in the Mena region in the coming months, as Ukraine's Danube ports and Russia's Baltic ports remain unable to make up for the capacity effectively lost from these countries' Black Sea ports since early July. Russia could export 3mn t of wheat from the country's Baltic ports in November-December — given Argus ' estimate for Russian exports in October — helping to fill a large chunk of demand from Mena buyers. As for Ukraine, the market could expect 250,000t of wheat exports in November and December, based on an average of 126,000 t/month of seaborne wheat in August-October, vessel-tracking and preliminary line-up data show. That said, exports from both countries for the coming months remain highly susceptible not only to shipping risks but also weather-related issues. The colder months bring a risk of freezing in the Baltic Sea, affecting Russian and EU Baltic ports, while traders at Ukraine's Danube ports are hoping for wetter weather to top up river water levels and finally ease shipping after months of drought. In the EU, wheat exports also tend to slow into November and December after four months of heightened activity directly following the July harvest. Since 2013, the bloc has shipped on average just over 16pc of its total exports for the year in November-December, at which point the region's spring crops — such as corn or sunflower seeds — take up export capacity, particularly in Romania and Bulgaria . An export pace in line with the historical trend would put EU wheat export capacity for November-December this year at just over 5mn t, based on Argus' forecast of 31mn t of wheat exports from the bloc for the full 2026-27 (July-June) marketing year. Total exports from Russia, Ukraine and the EU could come to almost 8.3mn t for November-December. This includes some feed wheat as well as milling, particularly from Romania and Bulgaria, which harvested a lower-quality crop compared with other EU exporters. Sellers in Russia and Ukraine are set to continue prioritising exports of pricier milling wheat. The combined exports leave little room for further milling demand from the Mena region in the next two months, or indeed from other global buyers. Alternative suppliers to Mena buyers are limited, and — in the case of Argentinian or Australian new-crop — only likely to be available in bulk from late December, and still liable to weather-related risk before then. By Erik Metaliaj Mena wheat import demand, November-December Country Volume (t) Source of demand Jordan 60,000 State tender Tunisia 150,000 State tenders Pakistan 180,000 State tenders Libya 328,000 Import demand forecast Saudi Arabia 683,000 State tender Morocco 900,000 Miminum miller demand Algeria 1,260,000 State tenders Egypt 2,000,000-3,500,000 State buyer and private market import needs forecasts Total 5,561,000-7,061,000 ― Argus, USDA, Kpler, Market participants Mena wheat demand, Nov-Dec t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ukraine sunflower output surges as corn harvest slows

19/10/26

Ukraine sunflower output surges as corn harvest slows

Kyiv, 19 October (Argus) — Ukrainian producers are prioritising sunflower seed (SFS) and soybean harvests over corn to optimise limited logistics, as high early-season grain output fills domestic storage. The SFS harvest has reached a turning point, with production significantly surpassing 2025 levels, according to preliminary agriculture ministry data as of 19 October. Farmers have threshed 4.12mn hectares (ha) of SFS, or about 79pc of the forecast area, compared with 3.91mn ha a year earlier. Total production reached 9.08mn t, up from 7.2mn t at the same stage in 2025, as average yields recovered to 2.20 t/ha from 1.84 t/ha. The influx of SFS is testing the capacity of inland crushing plants, which are already managing bottlenecks in the outflow of oil and meal through restricted corridors. The soybean harvest is nearing completion at 1.38mn ha, or 86pc of the forecast, with yields averaging 2.18 t/ha. This pace is slightly ahead of the 1.34mn ha threshed by mid-October 2025. In contrast, the corn harvest reached 912,000ha, or 20pc of the forecast 4.57mn ha, up from 589,000ha a week earlier. Despite weekly progress, the campaign remains slow, compared with historical levels, with about 1.1mn ha having been threshed by this time last year. Logistical constraints remain the primary deterrent — only 121,000t of corn left Ukraine in the first half of October, a sharp decline from 223,000t during the same period last year. With rail slots near fully committed until the end of the year, and deep-sea port access restricted, farmers are increasingly leaving corn in the fields to avoid immediate drying and storage expenses. Storage problems are further exacerbated by large production of early-group grains, including winter wheat, which the ministry currently pegs at 26.17mn t, and barley at 6.55mn t. With national elevators occupied by these grains and incoming SFS, market participants are increasingly considering Ukraine's potential to officially prioritise vegetable oil exports over grains to maximise the value of its limited logistics capacity. Such a pivot would further tighten the corn export bottleneck, leaving international buyers including Italy and Turkey with fewer non-genetically modified sourcing options. By Alexey Yeromin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina rains slow fieldwork as crop sales hit record

16/10/26

Argentina rains slow fieldwork as crop sales hit record

Sao Paulo, 16 October (Argus) — Improved soil moisture is supporting Argentina's 2026-27 crops, but persistent rainfall, low temperatures and limited sunlight are increasingly slowing fieldwork and raising disease risks, according to the separate reports by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) and the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (SAGyP). Meanwhile, 2025-26 crop sales surpassed a record 105mn metric tonnes (t) in October. Bage reported that 90pc of wheat had good water availability and 58pc had reached heading or later stages following October rainfall. Soil moisture across most wheat-growing areas improved, although it remained deficient in parts of the Cordoba province and northern Argentina, according to SAGyP. Wheat in Marcos Juarez city, in Cordoba, also faced localized hail damage, but SAGyP did not quantify the impact on yields. Nonetheless, repeated rainfall and high humidity delayed northern wheat harvesting, with early yield prospects varying across producing areas. Bage expects yields in parts of central Argentina to fall by 10-30pc from last season because of tiller abortion and frost damage, although SAGyP indicated better prospects in some central areas. Both reports also flagged low solar radiation and increased fungal-disease pressure. Corn planting remained ahead of last season's as of the week ended 16 October despite rain-related delays. Bage put progress at 34.8pc of a projected 8.4mn hectares (ha) (84,000km²), about 5 percentage points ahead of last year, while SAGyP estimated planting at 31pc, around 4 percentage points ahead. Both agencies reported planting disruptions from rainfall, while low temperatures and limited radiation slowed early crop development in some areas. Sunflower planting reached 41.9pc of Bage's projected 3.1mn ha as of 14 October, while SAGyP estimated progress at 45pc as of 15 October. Both indicated that rainfall was affecting fieldwork, especially as planting advanced through southern producing areas. Soybean planting remained limited, with SAGyP reporting 10pc progress in the province of Corrientes and the Avellaneda district of the northern Santa Fe province. As the risks from the effects of the El Nino climate phenomenon are becoming more apparent, Argentina's 2026-27 crops planting and harvesting outlook is becoming increasingly mixed across monitoring agencies. The weather developments come as Argentina maintains unusually strong old-crop sales. As of 7 October, sales of soybeans, corn, wheat, sorghum and sunflower exceeded 105mn t, 25pc above the five-year average and almost 6mn t above the previous record, according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Recent corn sales were nearly twice their usual pace, while 2025-26 wheat sales reached 23.2mn t, with 94pc carrying a fixed price. By Mariana Oliveira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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