UK N2EX peak-load discount reaches record in May

Spanish Market: Electricity
22/05/25

Peak-load power on the UK's N2EX day-ahead spot market has cleared at its widest discount to the base load this month, driven by rising solar generation and falling national demand.

The N2EX has cleared at £75.92/MWh ($85.66/MWh) for base load so far this month, while peak-load hours have delivered at £70.23/MWh. This is on track to be the widest peak-base discount on record in the UK, surpassing the peak discount of £4.40/MWh in August last year — which came amid record low peak demand for the month and unseasonably strong wind output.

UK solar generation has averaged 7GW in peak hours so far this month, up from 6.2GW last month and 4.7GW in May last year. In these hours, solar has accounted for around 22.5pc of domestic generation, the highest share for any month on record.

Embedded solar output during peak hours for the remainder of the month is currently forecast at 6.1-10.4GW, peaking on 23 May and bottoming out on 24 May. And national demand is forecast to range 16.0-22.4GW over the same period, with peak demand ranging 14.1-23.9GW.

Solar output is on track to generate more power than gas-fired units during peak-load hours for the second time on record after August last year. Gas-fired generation has been 6.2GW in peak-load hours so far this month, around 800MW below solar. In comparison, peak-load gas burn was just 50MW below solar in August last year.

The rise in solar generation has also continued to weigh heavily on the UK's net imports in the hours around midday. Net imports during base-load hours have stood at 3.9GW so far this month, down from 4.3GW in April and well below 4.8GW in May last year. Imports have only been around 4.6GW in settlement periods 27-28, between 13:00-14:00 local time, below 5.9GW during the same interval last year and 5.1GW in 2023.

A decline in peak-load demand compared with previous years has also weighed on power prices in these hours. UK national demand has been 22GW so far in May, the lowest for the month aside from May 2020. But demand in peak hours has been around 200MW lower than in May 2020 at 21.7GW, while late-night and early morning demand has been 1GW above 2020 levels.

This has largely been driven by a rapid increase in embedded solar for self-consumption in recent years, which could accelerate further with the recently passed Great British Energy Act, allocating £200mn for rooftop solar and other renewable energy schemes in 7,000 schools, hospitals and community buildings. The bulk of solar installations in the UK are between 0-4kW, totalling 1.4mn as of March and equivalent to 4.2GW, or 23pc of the UK's total solar capacity, government data shows. Some 73pc of the new solar installations in March were on residential buildings, adding a total of 68MW.

And 3.3GW between transmission and distribution-connected solar projects won contracts for difference in the last allocation round held last year. Almost 1.1GW of this is due on line in 2026-27 and 2.2GW in 2027-28.

By Timothy Santonastaso

N2EX monthly peak-base spread £/MWh

May solar output GW

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20/06/25

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

London, 20 June (Argus) — The European Commission today suspended Pakistan's Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status for imports of ethanol. The removal is effective from today, 20 June. A request was lodged in May last year by France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Poland, who sought to activate Article 30 of the GSP Regulation, arguing that ethanol coming from Pakistan since 2022 has "caused a serious disturbance to the Union ethanol market". Under Article 30, the commission can "adopt an implementing act in order to suspend the preferential arrangement in respect of the products concerned". Pakistan was granted GSP+ status in 2014, and this expired at the end of 2023. The status was temporarily extended until 2027. The GSP+ grants reduced-tariff or tariff-free access to the EU for vulnerable low- and lower- to middle-income countries that, according to the EU, "implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, protection of the environment and good governance". It fully removes custom duties on two-thirds of the bloc's tariff lines in Pakistan's case, including ethanol. Pakistan is a major supplier of industrial-grade ethanol to Europe, but it does not export fuel-grade ethanol. According to market participants, this is because production facilities in the country lack sustainability certifications such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) that are required for biofuels to qualify under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) targets. Fuel-grade ethanol was not included in the bloc's measures. Several Pakistani market participants were hopeful the GSP+ status will remain in place, which has continued to support ethanol exports from the country to the EU ( see table ). But uncertainty has weighed on demand from Europe recently, suppliers said. A participant told Argus that Pakistani sellers may look to offer more into Africa to soften the drop in demand. Some European suppliers anticipated this outcome, and have already stopped importing from Pakistan. European renewable ethanol association ePure expressed concern about the decision to exclude fuel ethanol from the scope of the measures, noting this could open the door to unintended loopholes and weaken the overall effect of the safeguard efforts. By Evelina Lungu and Deborah Sun European ethanol imports from Pakistan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

French Bugey nuclear cuts likely from 25 June: EdF

19/06/25

French Bugey nuclear cuts likely from 25 June: EdF

London, 19 June (Argus) — High temperatures on the River Rhone are "likely" to drive production cuts from nuclear plants along the river, especially Bugey, according to French utility EdF. The potential cuts will be reviewed on 24 June, and a specific publication will detail the cuts if they are confirmed, EdF said. France is about to see a combination of a heatwave and dry spell, with daily highs in Grenoble forecast to remain mostly above 30°C until the beginning of July. The combination of heat and a lack of rain in the Alps has increased the chance of hotter water and lower flows on the Rhone, which could have a knock-on effect on France's nuclear fleet. Eight of the country's 57 reactors discharge their cooling water directly into the river, and environmental regulations limit the temperature at which they can do this, meaning if the river's flow is low and temperatures high, the units can be forced to reduce output. Flows out of Lake Geneva — where the Rhone leaves Switzerland and enters France — have remained at 239-328 m³/s since 2 June. Earlier in the month this was within the 25th to 50th percentile of historical values, but is now slightly below the 25th percentile, as flows typically increase in June to peak at the end of the month and into July. The low outflows are reflective of low inflows, as the lake's level is regulated by the Seujet dam at the lake's exit to the Rhone, which keeps its level about 1m all year. The lake's level typically falls in the first quarter and rises in the second to a peak in June and July, and the level has been creeping up over June in line with the historical trend. The outflow's average temperature of 20.9°C on Wednesday was between the 75th and 95th percentile for the date. A convention between France and Switzerland guarantees that the flow of the Rhone upstream of Bugey, the first nuclear plant on the river, is to remain above 150 m³/s, with the potential for release of water from the Emosson reservoir in Switzerland to the Arve River to achieve this. In recent days, flows at Bugey — combining outflows from Lake Geneva and tributaries of the Rhone, which have brought more than 100 m³/s — have been well above this minimum. And thermal limits for Bugey are set at a maximum temperature downstream of the plant of 26°C and a maximum temperature difference between upstream and downstream of 5°C. If grid operator RTE determines that the plant is necessary to maintain supply, this maximum limit can increase to 27°C, but with only a 1°C temperature difference allowed. Only two of Bugey's four units discharge their cooling water directly into the Rhone, with the other two using cooling towers, which sharply reduce their thermal impact on the river, and so the extent to which the regulations affect them. If water flows were at their minimum of 150 m³/s, and at a temperature of 21°C upstream of the plant, this stream would have the capacity to carry 3.14GW of waste heat away from the plant before hitting the regulatory limit of 5°C of temperature difference and 26°C maximum temperature downstream. This is less than the roughly 3.8GW of waste heat generated by Bugey 2 and 3 operating at full power, including their thermal power of 5.6GW less their electrical power of 1.8GW. Bugey 4 and 5 contribute a small amount of extra waste heat downstream, as their cooling towers do not completely eliminate waste heat. Both units have had to stop at moments in the past two years because of heat-related constraints. In the last period when Bugey was constrained, in mid-August, flows leaving Lake Geneva were significantly hotter than now, roughly 24-26°C. At that point, output from Bugey 2 was reduced to zero, before a sharp fall in water temperature to roughly 20°C by 18 August allowed constraints to be lifted. But air temperatures in the region are forecast to remain elevated for the next two weeks, which will boost water temperatures over time. Daily highs in Sion, Switzerland, are seen at 3-4°C above the norm through to the beginning of July. Temperatures and flows at reactors further downstream which do not possess cooling towers — 2.6GW Saint Alban and 3.6GW Tricastin — are affected by other flows on tributaries to the Rhone, which cool the river down and increase its volume after passing Bugey. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

TC Energy targets brownfield expansion growth

18/06/25

TC Energy targets brownfield expansion growth

Washington, 18 June (Argus) — Canada-based TC Energy intends to focus on expansions of its existing natural gas pipeline network in North America to serve growing demand for natural gas service until the mid-2030s, chief executive Francois Poirier said today. TC Energy has a $32bn backlog in capital projects and is looking at an additional $30bn of projects that may not all come to fruition, Poirier said. The company's focus is on increasing capacity through existing pipelines and pipeline corridors, he said, rather than pursuing greenfield projects that require entirely new routes. "Our view is that we're going to be able to prosecute all of that with brownfield expansions," Poirier said in an interview on the sidelines of the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum. "The industry has been quite innovative in finding the nooks and crannies to move gas around. So I don't see a need for a big greenfield pipeline until the mid-2030s." Pipeline developers since 2020 have prioritized brownfield projects, after permitting delays and lawsuits delayed or halted proposed pipelines across the eastern US, such as the now-canceled $8bn Atlantic Coast Pipeline. President Donald Trump has pushed to restart new pipeline development, and last month US midstream operator Williams said it was restarting work on the 124-mile (200km) Constitution pipeline and the Northeast Supply Enhancement project. Last month, TC Energy announced a $900mn expansion of its ANR pipeline system in the US Midwest, known as the Northwoods project. TC Energy will focus on those types of brownfield projects until at least the mid-2030s, Poirier said, when the company forecasts gas production in the Hayettesville and Permian basins will reach maturity. At that point, he expects there will more need to transport Appalachian gas to the US Gulf coast, where demand from LNG export terminals is set to increase. "Then the question is going to be, is it economical?" Poirier said. "It's going to depend on the price for Henry Hub [gas]. Right now, the Henry Hub price doesn't support a new greenfield pipeline." Data centers are among the largest drivers of demand growth, Poirier said. In the last three months, TC Energy has seen "quite an acceleration" in demand for gas transportation service from utilities serving that demand, he said. Gas-fired plants are still the fastest way to reliably serve those data centers even though such plants take 3-5 years to build, he said, because renewable power is intermittent and nuclear plants take at least a decade to build. "If you look at the 660 or so data centers under development and construction in the US, about two-thirds are within 50 miles of our pipelines," Poirier said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament

18/06/25

Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament

Brussels, 18 June (Argus) — Poland has concluded negotiations on behalf of EU member states with the European Parliament for a revised carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), ahead of handing over the bloc's six-month rotating presidency to Denmark at the end of June. But Warsaw will not lead discussions on the EU's emissions cut target for 2040 and the bloc's updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris climate agreement. Leading negotiations for EU states with parliament, Poland's deputy climate minister Krzysztof Bolesta said the revised CBAM would exempt 90pc of originally covered EU companies from reporting obligations, while 99pc of emissions embedded in imported products would remain covered. The agreement on CBAM now has to be formally approved by parliament and EU ministers. Once published in the bloc's official journal, the revised CBAM text will exempt importers that do not exceed a new single mass-based threshold of 50 t/yr of imported goods. Bolesta admitted that progress has been held up on concluding the EU's NDC during Warsaw's presidency of EU ministerial meetings. CBAM was also listed by Bolesta as one of the points for flexibility in discussions on the 2040 climate target, alongside carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris agreement, additional funding and flexibility between climate sub-targets. At a meeting of environment ministers yesterday, Bolesta indicated that most states still favour the European Commission linking its submission of an EU NDC to the UN — which includes a 2035 emissions cut target — with the bloc's planned 2 July proposal for a 2040 EU climate target. The CBAM yesterday contributed to delays in technical negotiations held in Bonn, Germany, for the UN Cop 30 climate conference in Brazil. The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries, including countries such as Bolivia, China, Saudi Arabia, Cuba and Vietnam, had urged the need to address concerns "with climate change-related trade-restrictive unilateral measures". Despite "very, very divergent views", EU member states agree that it "is absolutely urgent to come up with an NDC before the end of September", Bolesta said. The Polish presidency of the EU, chairing climate ministers' meetings, has advanced NDC work as much as possible in the absence of the commission's proposal to revise the bloc's climate law. "We really have only a couple of months to come up with something. What lacks in the NDC draft is now the headline target," Bolesta said. Countries have not yet discussed the quality of Article 6 offsets, Bolesta added. "Everyone in the room realises that we need to be very stringent on what kind of offset will be let into the system," he said. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is "cautiously optimistic" that a landing ground can be found on the 2040 climate target. He called for more assertive climate diplomacy, as a large part of the problem lies outside Europe. For China, Hoekstra noted unfair trade practices and "serious" concerns about plans to build additional coal-fired plants. "It's a mixed bag. And we invite them to step up their ambition," he said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

TSO error, generation loss led to blackout: Spain VP

17/06/25

TSO error, generation loss led to blackout: Spain VP

London, 17 June (Argus) — Programming mistakes from Spain's transmission system operator (TSO) and "improper" disconnection of generating units by utilities contributed to Spain's 28 April blackout, according to Spain's vice-president and ecological transition minister, Sara Aagesen. Aagesen addressed the public following a meeting with the council of ministers, in which she presented a report on the government's findings from its investigation into the blackout that affected the Iberian peninsula on 28 April . Poor planning for voltage controls may have contributed to the blackout on 28 April. The day before the Iberian outage, Spanish TSO Red Electrica requested that 10 thermal plants be available in case of voltage issues on 28 April, Aagesen said. Market mechanisms meant the plants were not expected to be part of the 28 April generation mix, but the TSO often selects thermal units spread across Spain for back-up in case of an extraordinary event, in exchange for financial compensation. At 20:00 local time (18:00 GMT) on the night before the blackout, one of the thermal plants informed the TSO that it would not be able to operate the next day, and the TSO decided not to select another plant to take its place. The TSO "decided to reprogramme [for the next day], but not replace the need for a thermal plant", which meant the TSO went into the day of the blackout with "resources for voltage control that were inferior to what they had calculated the previous morning for the middle hours [of 28 April]". Some of the generation that disconnected from the grid in the initial stages of the blackout happened in an "improper manner". While some units automatically disconnected to protect themselves from voltage fluctuations, it was suggested that some generation units should not have done so. This created a wider "wave of over-voltage", amplifying the effects. And generation loss was detected not only in the Badajoz, Granada and Sevilla provinces as previously believed, but also in Caceres, Huelva and Segovia. This phase of the blackout took place within the space of 21 seconds. There is still no indication that a cyber attack took place on 28 April. The minister reiterated the government's stance on the matter, ruling out external influences on the events during the blackout. The full report covering the government's investigation into the blackout, approved by the council of ministers, will be published this evening. Aagesen will hold a meeting with her Portuguese counterpart, Maria da Graca Carvalho, in Portugal this evening at 20:00 local time (20:00 BST). By James Doran Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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