There is an 80pc chance that "at least" one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said today.
Global temperatures, on an annually-averaged basis, "are likely to continue at or near record levels" over 2025-29, and stay "well above" the annual temperatures seen in the last 60 years, the WMO said. Last year was the hottest on record, a group of climate and weather agencies found.
The WMO found an 86pc chance that "at least" one of the next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It also forecast a 70pc chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-29 will exceed 1.5°C. This is a significant increase on its finding last year, of a 47pc likelihood that the five-year average over 2024-28 would surpass 1.5°C. There is now a 1pc chance of at least one year in 2025-29 exceeding 2°C, the WMO said.
The temperature limit is set out in the Paris climate agreement, which seeks to hold the rise in global temperatures to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue a 1.5°C limit. Scientists use a timeframe of 1850-1900 to represent pre-industrial temperatures.
The annually averaged global mean temperature for each year between 2025-29 "is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher" than the 1850-1900 average, the WMO forecast.
And "temporary exceedances of the 1.5°C level are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches this level", the organisation said. Last year was likely to have breached the 1.5°C rise. But the Paris agreement refers to longer-term warming — typically over 20 years — and this so far remains below 1.5°C, the WMO added.
Further warming "risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather", the organisation said. Global heating drives heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, warming oceans and rising sea levels. Warmer oceans can also contribute to stronger hurricanes. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week that it expects a more active Atlantic hurricane season again this year.
