EU countries have established policy plans to push the bloc to a 54pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, from a 1990 baseline, the European Commission said.
The commission said countries had "significantly" closed the gap since the first draft of national energy and climate plans (NECPs) were submitted in 2023. It said the 54pc reduction will be met, undershooting the actual target of a 55pc cut, conditional on EU states fully implementing existing and planned national measures and EU policies.
The commission pointed the finger at Belgium, Estonia and Poland for not submitting their NECPs, with the deadline of 30 June 2024 long passed.
"Emissions are down 37pc since 1990, while the economy has grown nearly 70pc," said EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. EU sources indicate Hoekstra could present a legal proposal for the bloc's 2040 climate target ahead of a meeting of EU environment ministers on 17 June.
The commission's assessment does point to "ambition gaps", with emissions from sectors covered by the effort sharing regulation (ESR) — transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste — projected to decrease by 38pc by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, rather than the 40pc target. For land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), the commission calculates a gap of about 45-60 MtCO2eq of net removals.
For the EU's share of renewables in final energy consumption, the commission projects an ambition gap of 1.5pc towards the 42.5pc share set for 2030.
