Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire: Trump

Spanish Market: Crude oil
23/06/25

Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to begin around midnight ET, President Donald Trump said in a social media post late on Monday, ending 12 days of attacks that included US strikes on Iran over the weekend.

Iran will start the ceasefire first, according to Trump, and Israel will follow suit 12 hours later. The ceasefire will not begin until the two countries have completed ongoing military operations.

"During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL," Trump wrote on social media. ""On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.'"

The fighting appeared headed for escalation in recent days, with the US bombing nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend, and Iran launching missiles at a US military base in Qatar Monday in retaliation. But Iran gave advanced warning of the missiles in what appears to have been an effort to de-escalate the conflict.

WTI crude futures closed down by 7pc on Monday, as markets took the tepid Iranian response as a sign Iran did not plan to escalate the conflict.

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12/07/25

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs

Washington, 12 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday said the US will impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and the EU beginning on 1 August. In a move that could significantly disrupt crude, refined product and other commodity flows, Trump made public on his social media platform letters sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Friday threatening the new tariffs. Trump also vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico or the EU were to retaliate with their own measures. The threats follow similar letters sent to leaders of other countries this past week, including a 35pc tariff on Canadian imports , likewise starting on 1 August, and a 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports . In his letter to Sheinbaum, Trump repeated previous justifications for higher tariffs by pointing to "Mexico's failure to stop the Cartels" smuggling fentanyl into the US. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough," Trump wrote. "If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 30pc that we charge," Trump wrote to Sheinbaum. His letter to von der Leyen included similar language. Trump's previous executive orders regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada carved out exemptions for goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. A White House official on Friday, following Trump's 10 July Canadian tariff announcement, said the exemption will remain in place, with a caveat that Trump has yet to determine the final form of application. Regarding the EU, Trump argued the 30pc figure "is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with the EU". Mexico's ministries of the economy, foreign affairs, finance, security and energy said in a statement Saturday that they met with their US counterparts on Friday to begin negotiations to head off the new tariffs before 1 August. "We stated at the meeting that [the new tariff plan] was unfair treatment and that we disagreed." After receipt of the new tariff letter, von der Leyen said Trump's tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The US has clinched only one limited trade deal, which keeps in place a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK while granting a lower-tariff import quota for UK-made cars. Trump has announced a deal with Vietnam, setting tariffs at 20pc. By David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to loan 1mn bls crude to Louisiana refinery: Update

11/07/25

US to loan 1mn bls crude to Louisiana refinery: Update

Adds details on crude quality issues from Mars pipeline. Washington, 11 July (Argus) — ExxonMobil will borrow up to 1mn bl of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for its 522,500 b/d refinery in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in response to a disruption to offshore supply of crude for the facility. ExxonMobil warned suppliers last week of "serious quality issues" related to elevated levels of zinc in crude supplied by the Mars pipeline, which brings crude from a series of deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico to shore, according to market sources. In letters to suppliers ExxonMobil said the crude quality issues were "... significantly affecting the operations at our Baton Rouge Refinery," and that it would stop accepting Mars crude "... in an effort to avoid further damages." The US Department of Energy said today it had approved the loan to ExxonMobil, called an exchange, to ensure a stable supply of transportation fuels in Louisiana and the US Gulf coast. The agency said the crude loan will support ExxonMobil's "restoration of refinery operations that were reduced due to an offshore supply disruption." Chevron, one of the producers that contributes crude to the Mars pipeline, said it has "identified a potential contributing source to the Mars crude composition changes, which is associated with the start-up of a new well." Chevron said it was working to resolve the matter and does not expect it to affect current production guidance. In April Chevron started production from a new deepwater field , Ballymore, which ties into the Mars system. Shell, which owns a majority stake in the Mars pipeline, did not respond to a request for comment. Mars premium to WTI falls The August Mars premium to Nymex-quality WTI has dropped nearly $1/bl in the last week. The August Argus Mars volume-weighted average assessment on Thursday was a 9¢/bl premium to the Nymex-quality WTI Cushing benchmark, nearly $1/bl lower than a week earlier. Mars averaged a 63¢/bl premium for the August trade month through Thursday, but was at a $1.40-$1.50/bl premium at the start of the trade month. The August trade month started 26 June and ends 25 July. The SPR, which consists of four underground storage sites in Texas and Louisiana, held 403mn bl of crude as of 4 July. Under the exchange announced today ExxonMobil will eventually return the borrowed crude — along with additional crude as payment for the loan — to the SPR. The SPR's Bayou Choctaw site connects to refineries in Baton Rouge through the Capline pipeline. In 2021, the Department of Energy authorized a loan of up to 3mn bl from the SPR to ExxonMobil's refinery in Baton Rouge to address disruptions related to Hurricane Ida. ExxonMobil was initially scheduled to return the crude in 2022, but that deadline has been repeatedly pushed back, most recently to require a return of the crude by March 2026. By Chris Knight, Eunice Bridges and Amanda Smith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil advances oil, gas decarbonization strategy

11/07/25

Brazil advances oil, gas decarbonization strategy

Sao Paulo, 11 July (Argus) — Brazil is implementing a roadmap to increase crude output without boosting net emissions from the sector, a key argument for its claim to leadership on climate issues ahead of the Cop 30 UN summit. Although Brazil does not plan to phase out fossil fuel use, it is working to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and slashing greenhouse gases from its hydrocarbons production is part of this strategy. Brazil's oil industry already has a carbon footprint at 14.88kg CO2 equivalent (C02e)/bl of oil equivalent (boe), which is well below the global average of 20kg CO2e/boe, according to the hydrocarbons regulator ANP. But with oil and gas production slated to increase steadily over the next decade, Brazil's government and producers are eyeing a range of options to further slash emissions. "Brazil can double oil output without increasing net emissions by employing existing technologies," Heloisa Borges, the director of oil, gas and biofuels at the government energy planning and research agency (Epe) said. As part of these efforts, the government called on Epe, ANP and state-owned company Pre-Sal Petroleo to present a roadmap to decarbonize the sector. The plan presented in late June outlines options including adopting new technologies and expanding existing emissions reductions techniques, such as leak detection and reducing flaring. "Expanding methane capture not only reduces emissions, but it allows companies to use this gas to substitute other fuels, such as diesel in their operations," Borges said. Other fuel substitution operations include using natural gas as fuel for drilling rigs and electrification of production operations, the study said. State-controlled Petrobras is already advancing its decarbonization strategy. The company's most recent five-year plan earmarks R5.3bn ($950mn) for emissions reductions in its operations as well as $1bn for research and development of new technologies. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is a key element, according to Lilian Melo, executive director of the Petrobras' research, development and innovation center Cenpes. The company uses high-pressure separation technology to remove CO2 from oil at the mouth of a reservoir and inject it back into the reservoir after the fluids are separated. This technology significantly reduces emissions, especially because crude produced from pre-salt blocks has high CO2 content, Melo said. The CCUS is used on 23 of Petrobras' offshore platforms in the pre-salt. Petrobras is also working to expand electrification of its on and offshore platforms. Power generation is responsible for 65pc of Petrobras' production-related emissions, according to Melo. The company announced this week a contract with Hitachi Energy to assess electrification of its offshore oil operations. Catch and keep Other oil producers are working to reduce the carbon footprint of their operations, including Eneva, which is also weighing investments in carbon capture and storage. The company is conducting a preliminary study to assess the technical viability of injecting CO2 into fields in the Parnaiba basin in Maranhao state. The Gaviao Real field has been operating for more than 10 years and is expected to become depleted in coming years, when it could potentially be converted to store CO2. Eneva is also weighing investments in carbon storage in the Parana basin, where the company has four exploratory blocks. Preliminary seismic data indicates that these blocks also have salt caverns and the company believes that there is significant potential to offer carbon storage to ethanol mills in areas adjacent to the blocks. Despite Brazil's ambitious emissions reduction plan, it has no intention of pulling back on exploration and production. With few exceptions, the Brazilian government is aligned on developing oil and gas reserves to boost economic growth and energy security and holds that the aim does not hurt its role in climate leadership. Brazil's energy sector GHG emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

11/07/25

Saudi Arabia leads June Opec+ production increase

Singapore, 11 July (Argus) — Saudi Arabia drove a substantial increase in Opec+ production last month in a bid to mitigate potential supply disruptions stemming from the 12-day Israel-Iran war. Opec+ crude production rose by 830,000 b/d to 35.1mn b/d in June, according to Argus estimates, 290,000 b/d above its collective target for the month (see tables). Saudi Arabia accounted for most of this, boosting output by 600,000 b/d to 9.75mn b/d — 380,000 b/d above its required production of 9.37mn b/d for the month, as published by the Opec secretariat. Saudi production is normally in line with its Opec+ targets. But fears that the Israel-Iran conflict could cause regional production shutdowns and disrupt exports through the strait of Hormuz saw Saudi Arabia substantially increase output as a contingency measure, sources familiar with the numbers told Argus. Most of the additional output went into domestic storage and some was moved on to ships or storage tanks outside the Mideast Gulf, the sources said, stressing that it did not enter the market. Some output was also rerouted through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's supply to market — or physical sales — in June was 9.35mn b/d, the sources said, adding that the country's Opec+ commitments are based on its supply to market and not production. This would imply that Saudi Arabia was in line with its Opec+ target in June. Argus' monthly estimates are based on wellhead production. Saudi oil facilities were targeted in a missile attack in 2019 that temporarily shut in 5.5mn b/d of crude output. And Iran has long threatened to shut the strait of Hormuz — through which around 17mn b/d of Mideast Gulf crude and refined products is exported — if attacked. Regional oil production and oil exports through the strait were not affected during the Israel-Iran conflict during 13-24 June. China allocations rise Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese crude market is increasing thanks to higher output and attractive term formula prices in recent months, with the August-loading allocation to China hitting a two-year high. Refiners in China are set to receive a collective 1.65mn b/d of August-loading Saudi crude, according to market sources. This is 130,000 b/d higher than their July allocations and appears to be the largest amount since September 2023, Argus estimates. The increase was driven by a higher allocation granted to one state-owned refiner, with other Chinese customers' allocations unchanged on the month. Aramco lifted its August formula prices to Asia-Pacific by 90¢-$1.30/bl from July, higher than expectations of a 50-80¢/bl rise based on the wider backwardation — prompt premiums to forward values — in Mideast Gulf benchmark Dubai crude last month. Most Saudi term grades still represented good value on a delivered China basis next to spot medium sweet crudes from the Atlantic basin despite the price hikes, participants in China said. This together with strong seasonal demand may have prompted refiners to keep their term nominations high. Buying interest in Saudi crude was strong elsewhere as well. One northeast Asian refiner said it had asked for and will receive slightly above its usual amount. Other refiners based in Asia-Pacific said they requested and will receive their usual volumes of August-loading Saudi term crude. Requests from European buyers were not significantly higher than usual, traders said. Two European refiners told Argus that they nominated and received their full contractual volumes for August. And demand from other refiners may also have been steady because of firm refining margins and summer demand. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Opec 9 22.20 21.46 21.96 +0.24 Non-Opec 9 12.90 12.81 12.86 +0.04 Total Opec+ 18 35.10 34.27 34.81 +0.29 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Saudi Arabia** 9.75 9.15 9.37 +0.38 Iraq 3.96 3.94 4.09 -0.13 Kuwait 2.43 2.43 2.47 -0.04 UAE 3.04 2.94 3.09 -0.05 Algeria 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.00 Nigeria 1.55 1.53 1.50 +0.05 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.25 0.27 0.28 -0.03 Gabon 0.24 0.22 0.17 +0.07 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.07 -0.02 Opec 9 22.20 21.46 21.96 +0.24 Iran 3.37 3.42 na na Libya 1.34 1.37 na na Venezuela 0.96 0.98 na na Total Opec 12^ 27.87 27.23 na na *revised ** Saudi Arabia's supply to market in June was 9.35mn b/d †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Russia 9.02 8.98 9.16 -0.14 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.78 -0.02 Azerbaijan 0.46 0.47 0.55 -0.09 Kazakhstan 1.84 1.80 1.50 +0.34 Malaysia 0.37 0.37 0.40 -0.03 Bahrain 0.17 0.17 0.20 -0.03 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.17 0.15 0.12 +0.05 Total non-Opec 12.90 12.81 12.86 0.04 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

11/07/25

Canada focuses on new US deadline, diversifying trade

Calgary, 11 July (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney reiterated his plan to diversify trade with countries "throughout the world" following another round of tariff threats, and another deadline, from US president Donald Trump. Carney's comments on social media late on 10 July came hours after Trump said Canada could expect a 35pc tariff on all imports , effective 1 August, repeating earlier claims that the northern country was not doing enough to stop fentanyl from crossing into the US. Canada has said these claims are bogus but in late-2024 still committed to spending $900bn (C$1.3bn) on border security measures over six years. "Canada has made vital progress to stop the source of fentanyl in North America," Carney wrote on X. The prime minister said he is now working to strike a new trade deal before the 1 August deadline. Trump and Carney last month agreed they would work toward a broad trade agreement by mid-July, with Canada at the time targeting 21 July to finalize a deal. The 35pc tariff would be separate from tariffs set for specific sectors, which include a 50pc tariff on copper imports. It is not clear if any imports currently covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) would be affected by Trump's latest tariff threats. Carney has advocated the need to shore up trade partnerships with "reliable" countries since being sworn is as prime minister in March, saying the old relationship with the US "is over". The energy-rich nation needs to build more infrastructure to unlock this potential, and with a surge in public support, is trying to entice developers with a new law to fast-track project approvals . But those are multi-year efforts and Canada is still trying to reach a deal with the US to keep goods moving smoothly. The two economies are highly integrated with $762bn worth of goods crossing the US-Canada border in 2024, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. Canada on 29 June rescinded a digital sales tax (DST) that would have collected revenue from the US' largest tech companies, after US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick said the tax could have been a deal breaker in trade negotiations. That show of good faith — which seemingly got nothing in return — was criticized within Canada and contrary to Carney's repeated "elbows up" mantra in the face of Trump's threats. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire: Trump

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