US renewable energy growth has slowed after an onslaught of policy changes from President Donald Trump's administration, but developers' ability to navigate tariffs and other federal policy challenges could allow for continued gains, panelists at a renewables conference said.
Industry advocates have attributed the sector's recent flagging growth to numerous variables arising from federal policy decisions, such as Trump imposing and delaying tariffs and Congress enacting new "foreign entity of concern" limitations on tax credit eligibility and new permitting hurdles. These factors have raised a litany of yet unanswered questions for the industry, panelists at the 2025 Renewable Energy Markets Conference in Houston said on Thursday.
The US added 19,100MW of new utility-scale solar, wind and storage during the first half of 2025, down by 2pc from the same part of 2024, according to the latest data from the American Clean Power Association trade group.
Despite the current environment, the declining costs of wind and solar will make it possible for "disciplined" businesses that did not rely completely on the expiring federal tax incentives to be profitable under the right conditions, according to Jeremy Lo, executive vice president of renewables and corporate development at brokerage and consulting firm Transparent Energy.
"The panels that we need to do solar predominantly come from China, so if we get clarity on how to price that accurately and if there is stability, developers will begin to look at balance sheets and performance, and they'll do what they do, which is try to make money in solar," Lo said. "But they need that clarity."
In a vacuum, the cost of renewables still compares favorably to other sources, according to Southern Environmental Law Center senior attorney Nick Jimenez, citing consultant Lazard's most recent report on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for different resources. The LCOE describes the average power price a project must receive over its life to break even and helps when comparing technology types with different lifespans, nameplate capacities and capital costs. Lazard's analysis applies under "certain conditions", assuming set values for factors such as debt, interest rates and fuel costs.
Even without the tax credits, the LCOE for utility-scale solar and onshore wind farms often compares favorably to nuclear, coal and combined-cycle natural gas plants, according to Lazard. Utility-scale solar and wind cost $38-$78/MWh and $37-$86/MWh, respectively, while traditional nuclear fission costs $141-$220/MWh and and coal is at $71-$173/MWh, according to Lazard. Combined-cycle gas turbines came in at $48-$109/MWh.
"I think some of the, 'Oh, we don't know how much solar is going to cost, we better include this huge fluctuation,' [comes from] uncertainty," Jimenez said. "And once that settles out . . . we're still seeing renewables come in cheaper."
At the same time, the broader impact of Trump's import levies, particularly the 50pc tariffs on aluminum and steel, will continue to inflate the costs of new projects, regardless of type, EDP Renewables vice president of government and public affairs Tom Starrs said.
"I'd like to have anyone in the room raise their hand if they can figure out how to generate electricity without using steel and aluminum," he said. "The overall inflationary effects associated with other policies of the current administration are going to cause some chaos. It's a terrible dilemma for policymakers to be facing the prospect of significant retail price increases because retail rates were already high enough."
Those costs may ultimately hamstring clean energy development in other ways, with states including New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts either lowering their renewable energy mandates or considering significant reductions in utility requirements to lower ratepayer costs.
